Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

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Isn’t the Georgia State House unwinnable?

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Why the spike in voters for people born in the late 90s compared to the mid 90s?

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Scott at 49.22% with 10 precincts left. Think he narrowly avoids a runoff here to someone with no ActBlue and has raised less than my bank account.

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If flipping the GA House requires winning seats that Republicans won by 10 points or less, that’d require a a multi point PV victory to happen, which seems really far fetched even in this climate, right?

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If flipping the GA House requires winning seats that Republicans won by 10 points or less, that’d require a a multi point PV victory to happen, which seems really far fetched even in this climate, right?

Yes. It's also the case that most state legislators here do win crossover support from people who otherwise vote D/R upballot. It's quite probable that you'll see some metro Atlanta seats - quite a few - that vote for Biden and even Ossoff at the top of the ballot, but narrowly opt to reelect their Republican state rep or state senator.

Just as a reference, the state House vote overall was R+8.7 in 2018. For comparison, the gubernatorial race was R+1.5, and most other statewide races were R+2 to R+6.

With this in mind, Griff is right about the path Georgia is on. I do believe that Dems will be winning statewide races no later than 2022, but there will be significant lag in the General Assembly as Republicans will maintain small but comfortable majorities for a while, meaning that we'll be in for a decade of split government at least.

If 2018 was R+8.7, in theory the needed 10 point uniform swing would be D+1.3, which is a doable presidential margin but giving how right the state voted downballot, that seems only doable in theory. Also isn’t that gap from the high profile races versus state legislature races more ancestrally Republican than other fast trending D metros?