If a Democratic Candidate wins Maricopa County by 4%, would that be enough to win the entire state in 2020?
Traditionally Maricopa County votes more Republican than all of the other counties in the State combined, and accounts for an overwhelming chunk of the total Arizona Voting population regardless of Primary, GE, Presidential/ off-year elections....
This is heavily caused by Pima County (Tucson and suburban/exurban/rural), as well as to some extent significant Native American and Rural Latino populations elsewhere in the State....
If a Democratic Candidate is winning Maricopa by 4%, they are likely winning a statewide election in Arizona by more like 6%..... (Ballpark math here off the top of my head).
This. One thing people forget about 2016 election is how bad Clinton did with native Americans in general, so the rural Arizona counties are likely to swing back towards the Dems in 2020 (unless Warren is the nominee).
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