ME-02: Poliquin in denial

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Openly trans woman Daniele VanHelsing is running against Poliquin as an independent:

http://www.pressherald.com/2018/01/05/transgender-activist-making-run-for-2nd-congressional-district-seat/

potential spoiler for more liberal voters?

There’s also a Green with huge support among the Native communities in the district. Both he and Van Helsing together could gift Poliquin another term.

Is Golden not good enough for them? Is there something toxic about his record? If only RCV hadn't been struck down, this wouldn't be problematic.

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Why are democrats wasting money on this district I rate Likely Republican? When Their are 23 Clinton-Republican districts that are all more winnable then this district that supported Trump by double-digits.

This area of the country is very elastic. You really need to start looking at past elections. Look at how hard areas in the Rust Belt (and ME-02 along with much of upstate NY is quite similar to the Rust Belt) swung towards the Dems from 2004 to 2008, for example.

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Since when was Emily Cain a bold progressive?

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Also: https://twitter.com/mfalpac/status/1030574523412885504

Massive FF!

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So...what's the status here? How many votes are left to count, and does Golden have a good chance of pulling ahead after the RCV? I'd really like to win this one.

Golden seems almost certain to win. The third party candidates told their voters to pref Golden 2nd.
He should just run for Senate in 2020 too. I don’t honk he’d survive a challenge in ME-2 as it is

Wait, you think he would probably lose reelection in 2020, but should run for Senate anyway?

Yeah, (relatively) low risk, high reward. Winning a Senate seat that you have a limited shot of is much more valuable than a House seat you have limited shot of

What makes you think he would lose reelection, though?

Trump will easily win here in 2020

Doubtful given the Dems did decent here this cycle but that’d depend on the nominee.

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So...what's the status here? How many votes are left to count, and does Golden have a good chance of pulling ahead after the RCV? I'd really like to win this one.

Golden seems almost certain to win. The third party candidates told their voters to pref Golden 2nd.
He should just run for Senate in 2020 too. I don’t honk he’d survive a challenge in ME-2 as it is

Wait, you think he would probably lose reelection in 2020, but should run for Senate anyway?

Yeah, (relatively) low risk, high reward. Winning a Senate seat that you have a limited shot of is much more valuable than a House seat you have limited shot of

What makes you think he would lose reelection, though?

Trump will easily win here in 2020

Doubtful given the Dems did decent here this cycle but that’d depend on the nominee.

After seeing how Dems performed in similar Obama-Trump seats like IL-12 and NY-23, etc, Golden’s performance is nothing short of amazing. I would hate for him to run for an uphill re-election in 2020 when he’d stand an equal (or arguably better) chance at the Senate seat

How did the other statewide Dems do in ME-02?