House Leadership Megathread: it's House of Cards but without the monologues

[Bacon King]

Several Congressmen have mentioned Tom Cole and Paul Ryan as unity candidates who could get 218+

[Bacon King]

Several Congressmen have mentioned Tom Cole and Paul Ryan as unity candidates who could get 218+

Ryan has already ruled it out.

Yes but given the circumstance it's not implausible that he might reconsider

[Bacon King]

Out of Webster and Chaffetz, who is more likely to get it?

0% chance for either

[Bacon King]

Out of Webster and Chaffetz, who is more likely to get it?

0% chance for either

Then who gets it? They're the only two running so far.

A. One of the few Republican Congressmen who would actually win 218+ votes among their conference - most of whom have explicitly ruled out running, but someone might reconsider

B. A bipartisan compromise candidate elected by a secret ballot

C. An "interim speaker" to serve a role like the President Pro Tem of the Senate for the rest of the current Congress, it could be a random inoffensive senior Congressman or maybe someone not in Congress

[Bacon King]

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Lmao even after Boehner tries to resign, the tea party still finds a way to keep making his life hell

[Bacon King]

Wait, if the Freedom Caucus hasn't even decided who to back yet, then what the hell happened? What was the actual impetus for McCarthy dropping out?

The Freedom Caucus meeting this afternoon was to determine if they could find a consensus on any potential compromise candidates to support (or at least not obstruct). They apparently couldn't think of anyone; they are still backing Webster regardless.

I am becoming increasingly convinced that the impetus for McCarthy dropping out was the rumored affair. It's becoming clear that he was very confident of victory at 8 AM only to announce his withdrawal at noon without telling anyone at all beforehand. The only thing that makes sense to me is that during those four hours someone must have threatened to air all of McCarthy's dirty laundry if he won

[Bacon King]

Congressman Bill Johnson (R-OH), when asked about Boehner possibly remaining Speaker through January 2017:

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lmao they're literally talking about holding him hostage

poor Boehner

[Bacon King]

Congressmen supporting the idea of a "caretaker" Speaker are reportedly naming Hal Rogers and John Kline as possibilities for the role

[Bacon King]

On FOX right now, Shepard Smith just made a direct connection between McCarthy dropping out of the race and Walter Jones' letter that demanded anyone with "skeletons in their closet" to drop out of the leadership race - he's going to speak with Jones after the current commercial break

(does anyone even care about my cable news updates lol)

[Bacon King]

At the bottom of Walter Jones' letter he wrote in his own handwriting that "I believe this question is important to the integrity of the House" but he's telling Shep that it was only about hypothetical concerns and he totally didn't know about any actual scandals among any of the leadership candidates. Shepard Smith is ripping him to shreds for not spilling the beans

[Bacon King]

wow Walter Jones is a moron (and the accent doesn't do him any favors)

[Bacon King]

Freedom Caucus talking point (from Mick Mulvaney): "I'm not sure why we postponed the election just because McCarthy dropped out. At the very least we should have had a vote on whether to postpone it"

(also, Mulvaney is apparently one of those fast-talking red-faced types that make me wonder if they do cocaine)

[Bacon King]

AND THE TABLES HAVE TURNED

Boehner has announced that he is prepared to stay on for the remainder of the current Congressional term. In light of this news, a sizable contingent of establishment Republicans have stated that they will not support any new candidate for Speaker (and until someone else has 218 votes, Boehner will remain Speaker).

This means he is free to abandon the Hastert Rule, marginalize the Freedom Caucus, and honestly do pretty much whatever he wants for the next thirteen months

[Bacon King]

The hype surrounding Paul Ryan continues to build. It's leaked that Boehner personally asked him to reconsider, he's McCarthy's top choice, and he was mentioned as an acceptable candidate for Speaker by literally every Republican Member of Congress I saw interviewed today (at least twenty of them)

[Bacon King]

The hype surrounding Paul Ryan continues to build. It's leaked that Boehner personally asked him to reconsider, he's McCarthy's top choice, and he was mentioned as an acceptable candidate for Speaker by literally every Republican Member of Congress I saw interviewed today (at least twenty of them)

BREAKING: Paul Ryan has cancelled all fundraisers for the next 48 hours

[Bacon King]

The hype surrounding Paul Ryan continues to build. It's leaked that Boehner personally asked him to reconsider, he's McCarthy's top choice, and he was mentioned as an acceptable candidate for Speaker by literally every Republican Member of Congress I saw interviewed today (at least twenty of them)

BREAKING: Paul Ryan has cancelled all fundraisers for the next 48 hours

Source? I'm having trouble finding anything other than a fleeting mention

Luke Russert said it on MSNBC about thirty seconds before I posted it

[Bacon King]

If the Freedom Caucus is refusing to back Ryan, doesn't that negate the whole point of him running in the first place?  If I were a Republican, I would be absolutely furious with these people.

I believe jdb is confused - his link doesn't say the Freedom Caucus is refusing to back Ryan (and indeed they haven't said that at all)

[Bacon King]

I have updated the OP with a list of all potential Speaker candidates.

Here's an article about the House Freedom Caucus's possible opposition to Paul Ryan, btw. They dislike that budget compromise and his views on immigration, but the real make-or-break deal is their list of suggested procedural reforms to the House. They refuse to support any candidate for Speaker unless they have faith the candidate will return the house to "normal order", introduce proportional representation to the Steering Committee, allow Committees to elect their own leaders, and in general devolve more authority away from the Speaker's office to the Committees and the Members of Congress themselves. If Ryan were to agree to all of that, they would probably support him (but he'd be entering what would basically become a symbolic office)

[Bacon King]

There's always the possibility that the Freedom Caucus may be willing to compromise on some of their demands (I would not be able to say this with a straight face)

I've seen it suggested that the leadership is so desperate for Ryan to run that they've resorted to using both the carrot and the stick in their attempts to persuade him. For example, is there any way for Boehner to kick Paul Ryan out of the Ways and Means Chairmanship? Let's say he threatened to do so as a final "screw you" before he left office - that would force Ryan to suddenly start "seriously considering" it like he is now

[Bacon King]

Both sides of the Republican Civil War will be out in force on the Sunday Morning news shows tomorrow. Here's who will be on each show

ABC's This Week: Speaker Candidate Jason Chaffetz
CBS's Face the Nation: Freedom Caucus co-founder Mick Mulvaney
CNN's State of the Union: Freedom Caucus member Raul Labrador and Speaker Candidate Tom Cole
FOX News Sunday: Freedom Caucus Chairman Jim Jordan and Speaker Candidate Newt Gingrich
NBC's Meet the Press: moderate leader Charlie Dent and Freedom Caucus member Dave Brat

also I've seen the names of Bill Flores and Candice Miller brought up several times now as potential Speaker candidates so I've added them too. In a couple of days once the chaos settles down I'll start whittling the list of potential candidates down

[Bacon King]

Adam Kinzinger is the person I'd like to endorse.

No offense, but why?

He has less than five years of legislative experience, no experience in Conference leadership, no experience in the leadership of any Committee, no experience leading any sort of caucus or other congressional group, and he hasn't even served as a whip. He's a newbie backbencher that has literally zero authority, seniority, or experience in any manner whatsoever that would suggest in any way that he could somehow lead a 249-person organization he has absolutely no familiarity with, and somehow do so competently in spite of the fact that the Republican Conference is more fractured and rebellious than at any point in recent history.

I don't mean to single you out but this is just the latest and most egregious example in a constant trend of commentators suggesting increasingly less qualified people as a potential Speaker, as if it was just a popularity contest for a figurehead role and not the single most difficult job in Washington today

[Bacon King]

Jim Jordan (Freedom Caucus Chair) says they will "look favorably" on Paul Ryan as Speaker.

In the same interview he also reiterated his caucus is still supporting Webster and that the Freedom Caucus absolutely will not under any circumstance support a Speaker who will not agree to their laundry list of procedural demands

[Bacon King]

Here is an article that outlines some of the "problems" with the Freedom Caucus demands. It is not just about procedural niceties that they get to cast a vote on legislation framed the way they want it to be allowed by the rules committee, or that legislative proposals need to go through committee first, and pass there, and so forth. There is substance, and procedures, that essentially would shut the government down unless Obama and the Dems bend over and do with the FC wants, like defund Obamacare, and major entitlement reform, and minor little stuff like that. That is basically why the rest of the Pubs need to tell them to take a hike.

My fantasy is for the moderates to state that if the Freedom Caucus does not follow the will of a majority of the caucus, as to both who is the speaker, and what the rules of the road are, and the agenda is, then who is speaker will become largely moot, because they are going to team up with the Dems and run the House by discharge petition, to keep the government functioning, and passing what the Senate is able to pass, while the rest can just spend their time from now on jacking off. Two can go balls to the wall you know. And in this fight, in the end, the ones getting their heads handed to them on a platter will be the Freedom Caucus.

That would just lead to many of those "moderates" losing primary challenges for cooperating with Nancy Pelosi and expanding the Freedom Caucus.

^^^ this unfortunately

I imagine that Eric Cantor's out-of-nowhere primary loss must have had a profound psychological effect on anyone who could remotely be considered part of the GOP "Establishment"

[Bacon King]

GOP Conference vote scheduled for October 28th, official speaker vote scheduled for October 29th

[Bacon King]

Mo Brooks (confirmed Freedom Caucus member) has mentioned he is personally concerned that Paul Ryan is too pro-amnesty because his best friend is a hispanic AND a democrat (Luis Gutierrez)

also the Freedom Caucus is said to be very concerned about Paul Ryan due to his endorsement from Harry Reid