2013 Elections in Germany (user search)
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  2013 Elections in Germany (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2013 Elections in Germany  (Read 275026 times)
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 18,836
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« on: September 22, 2013, 06:02:43 PM »

Still out:

Berlin
Berlin-Charlottenburg - Wilmersdorf
Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg - Prenzlauer Berg Ost
Berlin-Lichtenberg

Bremen
Bremen II - Bremerhaven

Hamburg
Hamburg-Mitte

Hesse
Hochtaunus
Wiesbaden

Saxony
Erzgebirgskreis I
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Bacon King
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 18,836
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2013, 06:05:24 PM »

SPD takes Hamburg-Eimsbuettel from CDU on 13 point swing from Greens
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Bacon King
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 18,836
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2013, 06:41:58 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2013, 06:44:06 PM by Bacon King »

FINAL (Second Vote)

CDU: 34.1% (+6.9)
SPD: 25.7% (+2.7)
Die Linke: 8.6% (-3.3)
Greens: 8.4% (-2.3)
CSU: 7.4% (+0.9)
FDP: 4.8% (-9.8 )
AfD: 4.7%   (+4.7)

(CDU/CSU combined is 41.5%, (+7.8 ) if you are too lazy for math)
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Bacon King
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 18,836
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2013, 06:56:12 PM »

Not represented in parliament third strongest party. Hooray!

It could be worse: the Greek Parliamentary elections in May of last year had "other parties" polling first overall with 19%, and their threshold is only 3%
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Bacon King
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 18,836
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2013, 07:06:30 PM »

Merkel should intentionally sabotage the grand coalition negotiations so that another election has to be held. Based on her personal popularity and the closeness of this result, I have to assume she'd gain enough seats in a redo election to have a majority.

The caveat there is that it's up to President Gauck whether to call for new elections or to allow Merkel to govern with a plurality.
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Bacon King
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 18,836
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2013, 12:54:06 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2013, 12:56:10 PM by Bacon King »

Invalid Vote Percentage (Second Vote)



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Bacon King
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 18,836
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2013, 07:34:03 PM »

Is it still possible a red-red-green coalition?

Not really at all.

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Wouldn't take a month no matter what happens. Per German law, if no Chancellor candidate has been elected by a Parliamentary majority after two weeks, there's one final vote, then the German President picks between making the plurality winner of that vote the Chancellor or hold new elections. And Germany has very strict requirements for a no confidence vote so Merkel could easily manage a full term minority government; a majority of Parliament not only has to vote her out but there also needs to be a majority agreeing to her replacement for her to be removed as Chancellor.

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A red-red-green coalition most definitely wouldn't be considered the will of the people because the majority of all three of those party's voters almost certainly would oppose such a coalition.

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This is basically comparing apples and oranges.
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