The fact that it is virtually guaranteed they will retain the Senate makes it a victory. I remember how we were musing back in 2010 that the Dems had no chance at retaining the chamber. Now, thanks to Akin, Mourdock, and Thompson being lazy, it looks very possible - if not likely - that the worst outcome for them would be not net gain in seats.
The funny thing is, most Republicans aren't even paying attention to this. They are too consumed by the presidential race to have more than a passing interest. I get the feeling that if Obama is re-elected, Dems gain seats in the House, and cement their control of the Senate, they will be furious.
I agree completely; the fact that Democratic gains in the Senate are even being realistically discussed shows that this Senate cycle has been a Republican defeat. It's not too difficult to imagine, with hindsight, an alternate scenario where Republicans could have been on the cusp of a Senate supermajority right now.
First, imagine if Snowe hadn't retired, Lugar won his primary, and Akin kept his mouth shut about rape - safe Republican seats, all three.
Then, look at Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota: given the region's politics, all three "should" be safe Republican gains, especially that two are open seats and the third Democrat is a freshman narrowly elected in a wave year.
Consider also that the GOP candidates in three open Democratic seats are popular former governors: Allen in Virginia, who is facing a former DNC chairman; Lingle in Hawaii; and Thompson in Wisconsin. On paper, all three sound like they're easily winnable with good campaigns.
On top of that, you have states like FL, OH, PA, MI, and NJ: good candidates running solid (and well-financed) campaigns could have used the infrastructure and support of recent Republican takeovers in these states to mount serious challenges against incumbents with muted support among the electorate.
It's pretty easy to imagine a scenario where Scott Brown gets reelected, of course. And WV sounds possible on paper, as well: Manchin might have lost to a good candidate when he's stuck on the same ballot as Obama. It's also even conceivable to imagine Connecticut going Republican- hell, the 2nd place finisher in the Republican primary was consistently beating the 2nd place finisher in the Democratic primary, in the hypothetical match-ups through the summer. As it is, McMahon is still keeping it pretty close.
With all that in mind, this was a realistic (if optimistic) map for the GOP, only nine months ago:
For those of you keeping score at home, that's a 61 member Republican Senate Caucus. Of course, I'm not saying that any sane person would have actually predicted this map, but at one point in this cycle it was a realistic "GOP Best Case Scenario" perfect storm (like a mirror version of the 2008 results [though maybe if the Democrats had also managed to take Kentucky and Georgia]). But, thankfully, it didn't happen, and we're now thankfully talking about Democratic
gains in the Senate, and not worrying about a ten seat loss.
