Greece 2012

[Bacon King]

77.60% reporting (15989/20605 precincts)

ND and PASOK vote share continues to fall, with pretty much every other party increasing. Greens continue to approach threshold, with LAOS showing movement as well.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 3.12%

ND:	110	19.53%
SYRIZA:	50	16.41%
PASOK:	42	13.49%
ANEL:	32	10.51%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.91%
DIMAR:	19	6.05%
Greens:		2.88%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.58%

[Bacon King]

Of course, the only reason the ND-PASOK coalition is even forming a plurality (let alone a majority) is because they rigged it by giving the #1 party a 50 man bonus, knowing that either one was guaranteed to come first even if they both bombed.

To be fair, the law for the 50 seat bonus was first passed in 2007, and the "reinforced proportionality" system has been the norm in Greece since they got rid of the junta (excluding a failed experiment with direct proportionality in 1989 that caused 3 elections in 10 months). Not something that was put in place because everyone hates 'em now.

[Bacon King]

80.02% reporting (16588/20605 precincts)
~25% of remaining precincts are from Athens.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 3.05%

ND:	110	19.48%
SYRIZA:	50	16.43%
PASOK:	42	13.51%
ANEL:	32	10.52%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.89%
DIMAR:	19	6.07%
Greens:		2.88%
LAOS:		2.86%
DISY:		2.58%

[Bacon King]

Can someone point me to another election where no party managed to get 20%?  It just seems so bizarre to have the "winner" only have 19.5% of the vote.

How about this? Not really the same, though, given that parties only compete in half of the country.

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Yep.

[Bacon King]

So will the right have a ruling coalition just because of the 50 seat bonus? That's really two questions, will they have a ruling coalition, and would they not without the 50 seat bonus?

Right has a majority, but nobody is going to let Golden Dawn into government so that's a nonstarter. The current grand coalition barely has a majority that will be entirely unworkable in practice, and certainly wouldn't have a majority without the bonus.

[Bacon King]

85.41% reporting (17391/20605 precincts)
~25% of remaining precincts are from Athens, still.
SYRIZA gains a seat at the expense of PASOK. Movement for Greens and LAOS towards threshold.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.91%

ND:	110	19.40%
SYRIZA:	51	16.49%
PASOK:	41	13.47%
ANEL:	32	10.51%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.90%
DIMAR:	19	6.06%
Greens:		2.89%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.58%

[Bacon King]

86.93% reporting (17911/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.82%

ND:	110	19.33%
SYRIZA:	51	16.51%
PASOK:	41	13.46%
ANEL:	32	10.52%
KKE:	26	8.37%
XA:	21	6.90%
DIMAR:	19	6.07%
Greens:		2.89%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.60%

[Bacon King]

How much further does ND have to drop before they lose another seat?

An answer for that question requires one to somehow understand the arcane and incomprehensible rules of Greek seat distribution. For example, ND currently has 0 seats out of 4 from Imathias, where they're in first, but 3 out of 8 seats in Irakleiou, where they're in fifth.

Isn't the +50 bonus given only if the most voted party/coalition reaches 39% of the total share?

No, that's the approximate percentage of the vote a party would need to reach a majority from the bonus seats.

[Bacon King]

89.61% reporting (18464/20605 precincts)

As previously mentioned, ND loses a seat to ANEL.
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.72%

ND:	109	19.26%
SYRIZA:	51	16.54%
PASOK:	41	13.42%
ANEL:	33	10.53%
KKE:	26	8.41%
XA:	21	6.91%
DIMAR:	19	6.07%
Greens:		2.90%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.60%

[Bacon King]

If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

I'd guess like nine seats or so, but see:

An answer for that question requires one to somehow understand the arcane and incomprehensible rules of Greek seat distribution.

[Bacon King]

If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

I can only speak for myself, but I'm certainly listening to you and appreciate the commentary and answers you've provided. And note that he gave a rather large caveat that greens at 3% was "beyond unlikely"; I don't think he's ignoring you

[Bacon King]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

[Bacon King]

91.48% reporting (18849/20605 precincts)
~25% votes remaining from Athens
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.65%

ND:	109	19.22%
SYRIZA:	51	16.57%
PASOK:	41	13.41%
ANEL:	33	10.54%
KKE:	26	8.40%
XA:	21	6.92%
DIMAR:	19	6.07%
Greens:		2.90%
LAOS:		2.87%
DISY:		2.60%

[Bacon King]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Ah, thanks. That was a very clear post.

Glad I could help!

Here's a link to the earlier post I referenced, btw.

[Bacon King]

Do you believe there is any space to SYRIZA reach ND? I mean, 2.65 in 8.52 is quite an accomplishment.

Looking at where votes are out, I think that the race will definitely keep tightening but I doubt it'll be enough to put SYRIZA over the top. I'll give it maybe a one in four chance of happening.

Of course, if SYRIZA does take the lead, from my admittedly poor understanding of Greek electoral law that could lead to a lot of random shifts in seat results for all the parties, given the way that the 50 bonus seats are actually picked among electoral district seats through some convoluted process.

[Bacon King]

93.58% reporting (19282/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.52%

ND:	109	19.14%
SYRIZA:	51	16.62%
PASOK:	41	13.36%
ANEL:	33	10.55%
KKE:	26	8.42%
XA:	21	6.92%
DIMAR:	19	6.08%
Greens:		2.91%
LAOS:		2.88%
DISY:		2.60%

[Bacon King]

94.77% reporting (19476/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.42%

This is going to be close... SYRIZA leads- and is polling above their national percentage- in the ten districts with the most left to report. And in one of those other three regions, ND is leading with a total below their current national average.

ND:	109	19.08%
SYRIZA:	51	16.66%
PASOK:	41	13.32%
ANEL:	33	10.55%
KKE:	26	8.43%
XA:	21	6.93%
DIMAR:	19	6.08%
Greens:		2.91%
LAOS:		2.88%
DISY:		2.59%

[Bacon King]

Greek Ecologists sounds fairly leftwing, are they anti-austerity?

I think so, yes.

[Bacon King]

ND might finish second behind "Other." 

fifty deputies for everyone below the threshold to share?

[Bacon King]

95.85% reporting (19476/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.37%

ND:	109	19.04%
SYRIZA:	51	16.67%
PASOK:	41	13.30%
ANEL:	33	10.55%
KKE:	26	8.44%
XA:	21	6.95%
DIMAR:	19	6.09%
Greens:		2.91%
LAOS:		2.89%
DISY:		2.58%

[Bacon King]

If Samaras calls another election and the result is identical, worse, or better but still not good enough, then what? Do they just keep calling election after election until someone can form a government?

What about ND+PASOK+one of either Independent Greeks, SYRIZA, or DIMAR.

I've quoted the process for forming a government twice in this thread; look back to page 14ish if you're curious; before new elections can be called all three of the largest parties get a shot at forming a government. If new elections still don't allow any sort of possibility for government, they can have multiple elections in a row, yes (see Greece, 1989-1990).

Got it, but what is the likely *eventual* outcome of this?  I mean, let's say they keep having election after election for months.....is there some kind of combination of parties that might eventually form a coalition that seems implausible now?  If, for example, SYRIZA gets the most seats in a future election, is there any chance of them forming an anti-austerity coalition that includes both the far left and far right?  Or is that never going to happen?

I have no idea what's going to happen. ND has two weeks now to try to negotiate a coalition and there options aren't very good. Only option for them is ND+PASOK+DIMAR or maaybe ND+PASOK+ANEL or ND+ANEL+DIMAR. None of those sound feasible and on the off-chance those are actually agreed to, they certainly won't last long. If there's no coalition, SYRIZA gets a chance, and then PASOK, and neither of them have any path to a majority. Certainly a new election, sooner or later.

As for the probable results of a future election, ND and PASOK would probably lose more support as they appear increasingly unable to govern the country. SYRIZA would probably come in first, and I could possibly see the formation of an anti-austerity SYRIZA+DIMAR+ANEL+(ND/PASOK breakaway parties) coalition form as a result. Honestly though, I've got no idea, this is just a bit of conjecture.

[Bacon King]

Also, updated election results

96.57% reporting (19899/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.31%

ND:	109	19.01%
SYRIZA:	51	16.70%
PASOK:	41	13.27%
ANEL:	33	10.56%
KKE:	26	8.45%
XA:	21	6.96%
DIMAR:	19	6.09%
Greens:		2.92%
LAOS:		2.89%
DISY:		2.58%

[Bacon King]

97.52% reporting (20094/20605 precincts)
Margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.24%
Seat change from ND to SYRIZA
Total other (18.99%) now greater than ND

ND:	108	18.97%
SYRIZA:	52	16.73%
PASOK:	41	13.23%
ANEL:	33	10.57%
KKE:	26	8.46%
XA:	21	6.96%
DIMAR:	19	6.09%
Greens:		2.92%
LAOS:		2.89%
DISY:		2.57%

[Bacon King]

Markets reacting predictably; Greek Stock Market was down 8.2% before a slight rally that's "only" left it down 6% for the day.

In other news, DIMAR has ruled out the possibility of a coalition with ND and/or PASOK.

[Bacon King]

Also, looks like I misunderstood the Greek Constitution- process doesn't start when Parliament's seated, it starts now. President Papoulias just gave an exploratory mandate to the ND leader. If he's going to get a Government, he's got 71.5 hours for the bribes to go through.