There are decent odds that Romney doesn't get the nomination.
However, Huntsman and his trio of supporters won't affect that.
Huntsman is trying to drag down Romney's numbers in NH, and he is having slight success. The race is over if Romney can post 50% or greater in NH regardless of what happens in IA.
I wouldn't assume that Romney getting >50% in New Hampshire will instantly guarantee his nomination. If a single Anti-Romney candidate wins big in both Iowa and South Carolina, it's within the realm of possibility for them to convert that momentum into an upset victory in Florida, which would be a huge blow for Romney's campaign strategy. Still, though, given that the field will probably still be fragmented at that point, I doubt such a scenario would be very likely.
I do agree, however, that a win for Romney in New Hampshire is essential. The possibility that Huntsman is in the race to keep Romney from winning NH also makes a lot of sense, especially given the numerous gaffes and endemic unpreparedness his campaign had for a while after he announced. It's entirely possible Obama made a deal like this with Huntsman. If so, pretty smart move for his campaign. It'd be entirely out of character for Obama, however. Hell, he didn't even promise Hillary Clinton a cabinet position in exchange for her sudden displays of unity at the DNC (interesting tidbit there, by the way- Hillary was actually leaning
against taking the SoS nomination until the Obama transition team forced her decision by leaking that she had been "meeting privately with the President-elect regarding a cabinet appointment". Also, Obama would have preferred to have her lead the Defense Department, and would have pursued that instead if Gates decided not to stay).
Personally, though, I think Huntsman's plan has been to play both sides in an attempt to get the best possible result for himself. Huntsman's assuming Romney won't win Iowa, which would then allow him to leverage his NH support to bargain with Romney's campaign. He drops out and endorses Romney in exchange for a guarantee that he'll be nominated Secretary of State. Then, if Romney wins, he gets a big promotion from his ambassador job; if Romney loses the primary, he can declare the eventual GOP nominee to be "too radical for America," endorse Obama, speak at the DNC, and hope to be appointed SoS (or, at the very least, get his old ambassador job back); if Romney loses in the general election, he'd presumably spend the next four years attempting to position himself as a serious candidate for 2016.
Though, here's a related conspiracy theory I've heard recently: the Koch brothers are the masterminds behind Huntsman's campaign, because he'll take votes away from Romney and thus benefit Herman Cain (who, of course, has very close ties with Americans for Prosperity). Huntsman would presumably get rewarded with a Cain administration appointment, or maybe the Koch's promised if he ran they'd donate $1 billion each to the Huntsman Cancer Institute so maybe he's really just doing it all for the sick childrens.
I do respect Jon Huntsman (he's my fraternity brother, after all
) but a lot of his actions in the campaign so far have been inexplicable. Honestly, I don't think anyone knows what Jon Huntsman ultimate goal is in this election except for Huntsman himself.
