Official Discussion Thread for President Obama's Jobs Speech

[Bacon King]

"you should pass it right away" has been said like a dozen times.

[Bacon King]

I love that he's turning it back on the Congress... the GOP needs to not look so sour when he's talking about payroll tax cuts...

All GOP closeups so far have been nothing but scowls.

[Bacon King]

Obama's doing great at pointing out how everything he's proposing has been supported by the GOP at some point recently- will make them look hugely hypocritical if/when they oppose this en mass.

[Bacon King]

bipartisan ovation for medicare reform

[Bacon King]

Is Ryan sleeping. Mainly good ideas, but how will we pay for it? Infrastructure and schools warms the cockles of my heart.

He already said: Congress should pay for it by making additional cuts to account for it.

[Bacon King]

Boehner looks so hesitant whenever he claps.

[Bacon King]

Obama calling for passing new free trade bills now...

[Bacon King]

Is Ryan sleeping? Mainly good ideas, but how will we pay for it? Infrastructure and schools warms the cockles of my heart.

I like the ideas, but how are going to pay for it? He is lowering taxes on the middle, and raising on the top, which I do support, but he is not going to cut spending. He wont withdrawl us from Afghanistan. He wont cut foreign aid and our unfair alliance with Israel. I like his ideas, here, why not add Tariffs. Why not end our wars and alliances. Why not leave NAFTA. These ideas are great, but we cant pay for them without alot of cuts in defense, and social programs. This is a well worded speech demanding more stimulus basically.

He already said explicitly he was going to cut spending, and even release a specific plan of cuts to suggest to the supercommittee.

[Bacon King]

Obama: we've identified over 500 business regulations to reform

[Bacon King]

He's definitely setting this up to make Republicans look horrible if they don't pass this.

[Bacon King]

I love how he keeps staring down the GOP.

[Bacon King]

Obama: "And it is time for us to meet OUR responsibilities."
....only three Republicans clap.

[Bacon King]

NBC talking about possible car bomb plot

CNN talking about "confirmed, serious" possible terrorist attack planned for the 9/11 anniversary in NYC and DC.

[Bacon King]

Obama's posturing here is beautiful.

He made a series of moderate proposals, citing each time how the specifics were supported by the GOP. He highlighted the need for bipartisan compromise, and the devastating effects that would result if Congress did nothing. He made strong cases on every topic. He's calling for everything to be paid for in full by additional cuts made by the supercommittee- and next week will be sending them a specific proposal of cuts to pay for the program in full plus another trillion dollars on top of that.

If the GOP agrees with the plan, then their "cause gridlock in Washington so confidence stays low and the economy stays bad" strategy fails completely and Obama wins reelection. If the GOP doesn't agree to the proposals, Obama can clearly illustrate how he charged Congressional Republicans to fix the economy but they did nothing- putting the blame firmly on their shoulders and causing a huge swing against the GOP in 2012.

[Bacon King]

Now Obama has to hope the GOP doesn't play ball and pass this.  Because this isn't a job maker, it might not even stave a recession off at all.  If that happens, Obama's ass is in a sling.

If this passes on a broad bipartisan basis I think it'll do a lot of good for the economy indirectly- renewed confidence from seeing strong Presidential leadership and a bipartisan Congressional effort to fix the country will greatly break the "mental recession." Also, especially cutting the payroll tax in half for everyone will definitely drive up consumer spending.

[Bacon King]

Is Ryan sleeping? Mainly good ideas, but how will we pay for it? Infrastructure and schools warms the cockles of my heart.

More borrowing now and higher taxes later (and higher inflation later if the Fed is somehow forced into a corner for political reasons (e.g., Nixon/Burns))

Again: Obama specified that the entire cost for this project was going to come out of the $1.5 trillion in new cuts he's calling for by Christmas. And that he's going to release a specific proposal for these cuts next week.

[Bacon King]

Is Ryan sleeping? Mainly good ideas, but how will we pay for it? Infrastructure and schools warms the cockles of my heart.

More borrowing now and higher taxes later (and higher inflation later if the Fed is somehow forced into a corner for political reasons (e.g., Nixon/Burns))

Again: Obama specified that the entire cost for this project was going to come out of the $1.5 trillion in new cuts he's calling for by Christmas. And that he's going to release a specific proposal for these cuts next week.

So we're supposedly going to cut $1.5 trillion over, what, ten years? So we'll get maybe, MAYBE, $150 billion in cuts next year coupled with $450 billion in new spending. That turns into $300 billion more in borrowing, and those borrowed funds need to be paid for or inflated away at some point in the future. Even with $150 billion in cuts each year over the next ten years, we're still going to run unsustainable deficits moving forward. One can only imagine how bankrupt the country would be by 2017 if Obama manages to win re-election and pass through $450-800 billion stimulus packages every 2-3 years.

A $450 bn economic package is revenue-neutral in three years with $150 bn in cuts per year (outside of the interest payments from the first year debt, of course). I'm not saying the plan is perfect, but delayed cuts to account for the spending are much better than not accounting for a spending increase at all (which was the case with basically everything 2001-2010). 

[Bacon King]

Politico:

Presumably, the $300 billion in debt would be paid off by the $150 billion from the second and third years- hence why I said that the only increase would be from the interest on that $300 billion.

Also, while we're building this thought exercise, remember that another $2.5 trillion in cuts over ten years will already be coming through the pipeline thanks to the debt ceiling deal- so divvying it up essentially equally just like the money we've already mentioned, that's really $350 billion in cuts per year. So, all else being equal, that's a one year debt increase of a $100 billion followed by nine years of $350 billion cuts per year.

I really doubt we'll see another Obama bill for economic growth, because if the economy is still this bad next year I don't see how Obama can get reelected.

I also personally doubt Romney would be good with the debt. Reagan, H.W. Bush, and W. Bush were all horrible with it; I think it's natural to assume that a Republican President would increase the debt- he'd cut taxes, but then he'd hesitate on cutting spending to match because he'd be worried about his reelection. This is especially true with a Democratic Congress: both Reagan and Dubya began escalating the debt worse when Democrats took over.

I'm more hopeful with a divided government in the other direction- Gingrich pressured Clinton to balance the budget in 1994, and it's looking like the Republicans are doing the same to Obama now. I voted for Obama in 2008 without voting for my Democratic Congressman. In 2010 I voted Republican. I plan on splitting my ticket again in 2012. I honestly think that Obama + GOP house is the best way to get our nation fiscally solvent. And there are a lot of ideas out there (some good, some horrible) to cut the deficit. I really like Connie Mack's penny plan, for one.

Apologies if this post didn't make much sense, but I'm typing this while procrastinating on an essay exam I'm typing tonight, and I really need to get back to it, so I'm submitting this post now and getting back to that, hoping that this post doesn't come off as too stream-of-consciousness.