Dream Act passage in a lame duck session?

[Bacon King]

This bill is very personal to me.

I have a close friend that's been here with her family illegally since she was eight, and her parents have struggled to put her through college at a state school paying the outrageously high out-of-state tuition fees even though she's lived in Georgia for as long as she can remember. She's recently had to drop out because her parents couldn't afford to pay for it anymore. She's working full-time right now to save up to try to start back school; honestly, though, the passage of the DREAM Act would be perfect because not only would she be able to start school again, she'd also be able to get permanent residency after she graduates. I hope it passes. Right now her only way to even be in the United States legally is to either get married or get petitioned by her sister who's a citizen now after getting married several years back (and the petitioning for a non-minor sibling takes like a decade)

Although I do have personal reasons to support it, that doesn't change the fact that it's a good, commonsense bill in the first place. Honestly, if someone is so integrated into this country that they completed high school here and are going to college here, or are willing to die for the country in the Armed Services, I don't know why anyone would prohibit them their desire to be an American.

You can't even make the, "OH NOEZ THEY'LL ALL BE ON WELFARES" argument that some people do, because the beneficiaries of the DREAM Act would be, y'know, college graduates. Or learning technical skills with a military job. Either way, these people aren't going to be below the poverty line.

[Bacon King]

Whether this vote is held before or after November, keep in mind that compared to the Defense Bill at least two more Senators will vote for cloture: Lugar, who's cosponsoring the bill, and Reid, who voted against the failed cloture for the normal procedural reasons. That's 58 votes right there. Lugar being on board could help persuade other moderate and/or pro-"amnesty" Republicans to support it, such as a few of Collins, Snowe, Gregg, Bennett, Voinovich, Murkowski, Brown, Bond. Especially if it's in the lame duck session, the above Senators that are on their way out would feel not-that-much compulsion for keeping the party line.

In the lame duck session, after Lincoln finally loses she'll probably be persuaded to vote for this. Same goes for other Senators that either just lost OR just won and think they're safe enough.

Regarding the new Senators, NY isn't a factor because Gillibrand will win. Manchin winning in WV would be a net gain of a vote for cloture (and the Republican winning would similarly have no net effect) because the currently vacant seat effectively counts as a vote against cloture. IL may not be an issue because Kirk could concievably vote for cloture. So that leaves DE and CO as two potential cloture vote "losses" when compared to the Defense Appopriations bill.

So the parliamentary arithmetic isn't looking all too bad, it just depends on how many Republicans join Lugar in supporting the bill. I think the Democratic whips have already counted enough ayes, because otherwise I don't think they'd be pushing this through again. The Democratic Senators can already tell voters "Hey, we tried to pass this but the Republicans blocked it" so it'd just be a waste of time to do the same thing over again.