Should democrats give up on NC and focus elsewhere?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

In 2020 they should focus on getting to 270. Focus on landslides later.

In 2016 Clinton didn't want to just win - she wanted to win in an epic landslide. She spent more money in Omaha, NE than Michigan and Wisconsin combined. This is the same mistake she made in 2008.

So if North Carolina is crucial to their path in 2020 then they should focus on it.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

If anything they should give up on OH/IA and focus more on the sunbelt of NC/AZ where they performed better, particularly in AZ where the election was closer than NC with a fraction of the capital investment.

In 2024 sure, but in 2020 they should focus on 270. The reason Trump dropped so much in Arizona was due to the white vote - something he could pick back up in 2020.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Exactly. Trump did better with Hispanics than Romney. If Trump could get Romney's white vote share, it would've been a 10 point victory at least. While I do believe Arizona will go more in New Mexico's direction over time, the GOP will still have an advantage in the near future.

Giving up on Ohio and Iowa is a big deal. It also means that PA, MI, WI, and MN are proabably competitive too, and winning Arizona and NC wouldn't be able to offset that.

100%.

Romney got about 66% of the white vote in Arizona, and only about 20% of the non-white vote (including Latinos). Trump got only 54% of the white vote, but 30% of the non-white vote.

So if Trump can even pick up half of the lost voters he can get to 60%.  If he's able to do that and just barely improves with non-whites he easily hits 52%+ (I am probably correctly assuming third parties won't even be half as significant in 2020). The GOP "ceiling" in Arizona is still over 53%.

Romney really hit the bottom of the barrel in terms of votes with minorities. What a crappy candidate. He tried to pander to everyone one thus he appealed to no one.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Assuming a very competitive election, democrats should focus on in the following order:

1. Pennsylvania
2. Florida
3. Wisconsin
4. Georgia
5. Michigan
6. Minnesota
7. North Carolina
8. Nevada
9. Arizona
10 Maine
11. New Hampshire

Unless the candidate is someone like Sanders in which case you can kiss Florida goodbye.

Sanders would do terrible in Florida due to his support of Fidel Castro (adios Cuban vote) and Socialism scaring the retirees.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Exactly.

Yup. I can't believe some people said he'd do great in Florida.

Like hello?? Do you think a guy who praised Fidel Castro's breadlines is going to be popular there?

Sanders was never attacked, so he has high favorable ratings. But there is so much dirt on him it's mind blowing.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

The whole notion that Trump improved upon Romneys performance among latino voters is fake news

- Talks about a fake news
- Then links to LatinoDecisions

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I would warn against relying on exit polls as they are very inaccurate, even less than normal polls. The exit polls in 2016 predicted a Clinton landslide (Trump 48-47 for instance) for example

Early exit polls are trash (for obvious reasons) but the ones later are OK. I did the math and most of them check out.

Por ejemplo, in Arizona, the exit polls showed a 75% white electoral with Trump getting 54% of whites, with 32% of non-whites (25%). This adds up to 48.5 and Trump got 48.1 in the state.

Not 100% accurate, but that's not what polls should be used for - just an idea. It's one of the biggest problems people have with polls. They think polls should be 100% accurate when that's not possible (not saying this about you, but for others).