2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[junior chįmp]

Good news....Thanks to Trump insistence of a #RedWave...many GOP midterm voters are checking out of voting this year according to GOP pollsters:

https://mobile.twitter.com/katherinemiller/status/1040995167220711424

[junior chįmp]

GOP in big BIG trouble:

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[junior chįmp]

Ahahahahahahahahahahahah

https://mobile.twitter.com/gabrielsherman/status/1042193041908477953

[junior chįmp]

PPP poll: MN-02 - Craig (D) 48% Lewis (R-inc) 45%

[junior chįmp]

CAGOP is basically finished after 2018

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1047895543639420928

Lol at the insistence that attack ads ( or ads in general) matter

[junior chįmp]

There's been a blue wave for the past year, why do people keep ignoring the dozens of races in the past year where it's clearly evident Dem voters are fired up and massive swings in deep red territory. We were told the tax cuts would doom energize GOP voters and doom people like Conor Lamb and it didn't. Stop buying into the GOP narratives they are trying to push and look what has happened in the past year.

Finally...someone who gets it. Barring massive unforseen circumstances, its still gonna be a wave election. Elections dont ebb and flow; one side is always favored or doomed from the start.

[junior chįmp]

The wave is still happening. The Kavanaugh energy on the right will die down now that he’s confirmed.

There is no Kavanaugh energy except among right wing media spin artists and clown pundits desperate for the next hot take.

There was no Elena Kegan energy, no Sonia Sotomayor energy, no Alito or Roberts energy.

[junior chįmp]

The wave is still happening. The Kavanaugh energy on the right will die down now that he’s confirmed.

There is no Kavanaugh energy except among right wing media spin artists and clown pundits desperate for the next hot take.

There was no Elena Kegan energy, no Sonia Sotomayor energy, no Alito or Roberts energy.

None of them happened a month before Election Day

Yes...if only Obama had nominated Kagan a month before the midterms of 2010...the Dems would not have suffered massive losses. Same with Clinton...of only Breyer was jammed through in October...the whole Republican Revolution of 1994 wouldnt of happened. Gingrich would of been like "pack it up boys...he just put Breyer on the Court"

[junior chįmp]

The wave is still happening. The Kavanaugh energy on the right will die down now that he’s confirmed.

There is no Kavanaugh energy except among right wing media spin artists and clown pundits desperate for the next hot take.

There was no Elena Kegan energy, no Sonia Sotomayor energy, no Alito or Roberts energy.

None of them happened a month before Election Day

Yes...if only Obama had nominated Kagan a month before the midterms of 2010...the Dems would not have suffered massive losses. Same with Clinton...of only Breyer was jammed through in October...the whole Republican Revolution of 1994 wouldnt of happened. Gingrich would of been like "pack it up boys...he just put Breyer on the Court"

The map in 1994 and 2010 was far far less favorable to the Democrats than the GOP map in 2018

True but the point here is that the SCOTUS has no effect on the midterms. Yes, Heitkamp, McCaskill, etc... can lose but how they voted on Kavanaugh has nothing to do with it.

[junior chįmp]

This will not be the main story by election day; the news cycle moves too fast now. Consider that:
- The Manafort and Cohen verdict/plea happened a little over a month ago, were huge news, and who's talking about them now?
- At this point in the 2016 cycle, the Entertainment Tonight Tape had just dropped, and people were talking about Hillary winning Texas and Georgia and Dems winning 8-10 seats in the Senate and possibly even winning the House

You really have to hand it to Atlas....despite the spectacular special election results (with dems winning seats not won in decades), record setting fundraising and volunteering, running record amounts of candidates (including the most state legislature candidates since 1982), Trump's approval in the toilet....Atlas thinks that all that momentum will evaporate over this Kavanaugh nonsense. Literally nobody cares except political nerds and the MSM (which of course is looking for its bogus story of the week).

[junior chįmp]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

Dont worry....theyll be another BS narrative next week now that tax cut, North Korea, Kavanaugh bump has failed to materialize

[junior chįmp]

Someone should go into every thread that deals with the Ds losing big or if the house is lost, and should just post this poll.

Dont worry....theyll be another BS narrative next week now that tax cut, North Korea, Kavanaugh bump has failed to materialize

That's because something new happens every week. Did you predict the Comey Letter? Kavanaugh Backlash? The Macaca controversy?  Besides, we're literally in the month of the "October Surprise". Don't get too smug.

None of that stuff matters. Of course the media has a vested interest in creating bogus narratives out of thin air for ratings and to give the appearance that there's some kind of horse race going on. But there is no horse race....the GOP has been screwed since the day Trump was inaguarated.

[junior chįmp]

This will not be the main story by election day; the news cycle moves too fast now. Consider that:
- The Manafort and Cohen verdict/plea happened a little over a month ago, were huge news, and who's talking about them now?
- At this point in the 2016 cycle, the Entertainment Tonight Tape had just dropped, and people were talking about Hillary winning Texas and Georgia and Dems winning 8-10 seats in the Senate and possibly even winning the House

You really have to hand it to Atlas....despite the spectacular special election results (with dems winning seats not won in decades), record setting fundraising and volunteering, running record amounts of candidates (including the most state legislature candidates since 1982), Trump's approval in the toilet....Atlas thinks that all that momentum will evaporate over this Kavanaugh nonsense. Literally nobody cares except political nerds and the MSM (which of course is looking for its bogus story of the week).

I think it's less about Democratic turnout evaporating than it is Republican turnout surging and cancelling out a lot of that momentum.

Elections dont work like that. Unless unforseen events happen that negatively impact voters quality of life (like an economic collapse)....voters by and large remain unmotivated when their party is running things. The Republican fantasy fiction that GOP voters would "surge" due to Kavanaugh's nomination is ridiculous because it assumes that all Republican voters are some intellectually monolothic bloc that intensely pays attention to politics. The vast majority are idiots with no actual  clear ideology and they have little to no desire to understand issues which are not clearly and directly related to them as individuals.

[junior chįmp]

Midnight Poll release from ABC-

Democrats: 53%
Republicans: 42%

Now that's among LVs. The article mentions that among RVs the lead ranges from D+12 to D+14 but presented no numbers.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-approval-improves-dems-lead-house/story?id=58469893

The Republican party is finished

[junior chįmp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1051605405468712960