2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 211649 times)
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #25 on: March 13, 2018, 09:55:45 PM »
Remember remember this November when GOP is done!
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #26 on: March 13, 2018, 11:44:49 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on March 13, 2018, 09:55:45 PM
Remember remember this November when GOP is done!



To add:

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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #27 on: March 14, 2018, 09:40:00 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on March 14, 2018, 08:44:40 AM

I was discussing this with Marty last night - I’m not a fan of this talking point. Presuming a uniform swing across various regions, and assuming the same candidate/campaign quality, is hazardous. Even a 1/3 of those swings is about 40 seats, close to 1994-level. 1/2 is basically 2010 redux. I figure the end result, if we’re being ambitious, could be somewhere in between

Obviously I do not predict the Dems to win like 120 seats but I stand by the prediction I made like 6 months ago: 70+ seats

Now that Trump has grown more and more unhinged....there is the very real possibility of him firing Mueller or pulling out of NAFTA which would only cause the blue wave to get bigger. If he does both then the possibility of losing 100+ seats becomes all to real
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #28 on: March 14, 2018, 09:41:38 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 14, 2018, 09:12:26 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on March 14, 2018, 08:31:56 PM
I don't think any of these have been posted yet:

YouGov, Mar 10-13, 1278 RV

D 43 (nc)
R 38 (+1)

Morning Consult, Mar 8-12, 1997 RV

D 43 (-1)
R 36 (+1)

Ipsos/Reuters, Mar 8-12, 1216 RV

D 43 (-1)
R 34 (+1)

Ipsos Reuters is an increase... pretty sure it was D+5 a few days ago.

Who cares what the junk polls say. The GOP is finished. Oh BTW:
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #29 on: March 20, 2018, 10:25:01 AM »
Remember what I've been telling you guys for the longest time now? 70 seats!
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #30 on: March 21, 2018, 02:14:54 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 21, 2018, 11:52:28 AM
Quinnipiac Generic Ballot
Democrats - 49
Republicans - 43

D+6. That's the best number for Republicans for a very very long time in Qpac.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #31 on: March 24, 2018, 05:55:07 PM »
Quote from: Representative-Elect politicalmasta73 on March 24, 2018, 04:51:46 PM
oof, generic ballot below 6, not that it matters this early out, but still curious what caused it

Blue wave imminent
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #32 on: March 25, 2018, 12:25:37 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 25, 2018, 08:23:12 AM
Fox News Poll 3/25 (Last poll was October 2017)


Democrats - 46 (-4)
Republicans - 41 (+6)

Went from D+15 to D+5.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-gap-narrows-on-2018-vote-preference.html

From the article:

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Look, everyone knows that the GOP is done in November....we're all basically playing the waiting game at this point
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #33 on: March 25, 2018, 04:24:35 PM »
Tiffany Trump calling it....blue wave imminent:
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #34 on: March 27, 2018, 11:39:12 AM »
Quote from: KingSweden on March 27, 2018, 10:51:46 AM

Until the next shiny object poll we can all obsess over.

Also check this thing’s enthusiasm gap...

Also, the enthusiasm gap has remained fairly static meaning the people Trump has pissed off are just as motivated as ever. The GOP figured these people would just lose interest after seeing that extra $1.50 in their paycheck but so far it hasn't played out that way
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #35 on: April 11, 2018, 12:34:53 PM »
The polls probably went up for the GOP on account of Paul Ryan quitting. They'll go back down again
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #36 on: April 13, 2018, 04:27:59 PM »
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #37 on: April 15, 2018, 12:13:37 PM »

"That's the exact opposite of 2010, before the GOP wave, when
66% of Republicans showed high interest
49% of Democrats "
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #38 on: April 25, 2018, 12:59:46 PM »
Quinnipiac: Generic ballot D+8.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2538
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #39 on: April 25, 2018, 04:31:23 PM »
Quote from: Zyzz on April 25, 2018, 04:23:08 PM

5 point surge a month means the Dems will win in November by 43 points.
#BlueTsunamiStrikesBack

+660 seats in the House. BIG
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #40 on: April 27, 2018, 11:57:00 AM »
Quote from: Ebsy on April 27, 2018, 11:51:50 AM


Ann Wagner in trouble.

Both Wagner and Hawely to lose in November?!

Damn....Claire  is playing 4D chess here
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #41 on: May 09, 2018, 08:27:51 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 09, 2018, 08:03:45 PM
PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

PPP showed Democrats leading the generic ballot in late September 2010 before a 65 seat loss in November.

Polls and models are overrated (imo all models are junk). But the enthusiasm gap, fundraising, record number of candidates running, and special election results were very good for the GOP in 2010. They are even better so for the Dems going into 2018.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #42 on: May 10, 2018, 04:49:47 PM »
"all downhill from here"
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #43 on: May 16, 2018, 12:14:33 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on May 16, 2018, 12:12:20 PM
Saw somewhere that Rasmussen was D+6, I believe on DKE

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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #44 on: May 19, 2018, 06:31:20 PM »
Quote from: Arkansas Yankee on May 19, 2018, 05:02:57 PM
RCP average today is at D +4.  It is not below 4 only because your favorite pollster, RASMUSSEN, HAS IT AT D +6.  Whatever.

Yawn....who cares? Republicans and Democrats were tied at this point in 2010 on RCP
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #45 on: May 19, 2018, 09:05:52 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on May 19, 2018, 07:24:34 PM
Quote from: Mondale on May 19, 2018, 06:31:20 PM
Quote from: Arkansas Yankee on May 19, 2018, 05:02:57 PM
RCP average today is at D +4.  It is not below 4 only because your favorite pollster, RASMUSSEN, HAS IT AT D +6.  Whatever.

Yawn....who cares? Republicans and Democrats were tied at this point in 2010 on RCP

lol is that true? that's hilarious.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #46 on: May 21, 2018, 09:33:12 PM »
Seemed like only 1 month ago they were touting how the tax bill would save their majority. Good night sweet prince

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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #47 on: May 22, 2018, 05:10:53 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on May 22, 2018, 03:21:33 PM
Anyways, "Sean T at RCP" is on it:



Rofl....looks like clown pundit Sean following the noise again
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #48 on: May 22, 2018, 07:26:58 PM »
BREAKING: Trump tells Republicans voting isnt important in 2018
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,433
Croatia
« Reply #49 on: May 25, 2018, 11:44:03 PM »
Trump has the widest intensity gap recorded since they started asking the question
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