538: The Democratic Wave Could Turn Into A Flood

[junior chįmp]

The boomers didn't really become a Republican group until Obama came along - before that they were a swing group.

2004: Bush won 45-59 by 3 points in a election he won by 2 points- R+1

2008: Obama won 45-64 by 1 point in a election he won by 7 points - R+6

That's because Democrats were to the center and/or Republican lite up until Obama. Obama was the first Democrat to rock the boat and lunge to the left which basically caused the demise of Conservative Democrats and the non-stop autistic screeching from Boomers who could sense the end of their way of doing things. Bill Clinton basically legislated everything Reagan and Bush Sr. failed to accomplish which kept the Democratic Party relevant but mostly boxed in from it's left wing desires. The non-stop acting like a bitch behavior Republicans have engaged in since Obama showed how empty  and hollowed out the GOP is in terms of having any governing  ideas/philosophy. Nobody over at the GOP believes any of the nonsense coming out of their own mouths....as evidenced by the fact their garbage tax scam isn't even fooling people anymore.

[junior chįmp]

One problem for you is how you finance single payer if you get to the point of being able to try to implement it.

It's not impossible, but it may take a lot of courage for the party to implement responsibly, as it will require tax increases across the board and a broad assault on what has become a hyper-greedy and out of control medical/pharma industry. You can't have corporations engaging in price gouging on medication and other services.

I'm actually pretty afraid if the party does push forward on this. Depending on how what they do, it could result in some pretty big changes that might prove too disruptive for voters to tolerate. Also I myself won't tolerate reforms that are paid for Republican-style, as in, abdicating any sense of responsibility and just engaging in wholesale deficit spending.

Open borders will sink you.  You cannot provide jobs and health services for every Latin American who wants to enter the country.

I don't see what the big deal with a pathway to citizenship is. We have to address the people who are already here. You can't just deport them all, as that would have negative effects on our economy, and it wouldn't even be right. Many of them have been here for a long time now. Anyway, I believe Democrats agreed to enhanced border security as part of a comprehensive immigration reform package, but they wanted things like pathway to citizenship and letting DREAMers stay, among other things. It's conservatives who aren't willing to agree to anything. The fact is, you guys are going to have to compromise at some point, because comprehensive reform is going to happen. It's just a matter of when, and tbh, conservatives may not want to wait until Democrats are in a greater position of power to start negotiating. You're setting yourself up for a bad deal.

As for me, I'm not exactly in step with my party on immigration either, at least if you go by what is being demanded of Democratic presidential candidates. I just want the people who are already here to be allowed to stay and given a chance to become citizens. I have no interest in lax border policy where people from South America can continue pouring in.

I do not think you or the European elites are going to be able to handle the Islamization of Europe you are encouraging.

I am?

Your fetish for regulations ties the economy in knots.  

Every time Democrats propose a regulation, conservatives flip out and say the sky will fall. Rarely does that happen.

And I would also counter with the conservative fetish for deregulation has done nothing but help usher in a 2nd, more modernized Gilded Age, with inequality skyrocketing and industries rapidly consolidating, leaving less and less competition. Really, it's statements like the one you made that remind me just how ridiculous the Republican Party has become with its position on regulations in general, and Trump's "get rid of 2 for every new regulation added" shows that what the regulation is for doesn't even seem to matter to you guys anymore. You start from the position that any attempts to set limits on the power of corporations is bad, and it's almost impossible to move beyond that.

Going by what they do, Republicans seem to want some sort of market free-for-all where there are few rules. I don't think that would work out as well as it may sound in conservatives' heads. We had a time like that, and it was completely miserable for large swathes of America. That's why we are where we are right now, with a much more regulated economy.

I will reply in more detail at another time, as I am preparing for Christmas travel and I am not sure how to copy and past your separate responses.

Let me say I was responding to the prediction of long Democrat dominance.  I was merely pointing out problems that could upend the predictions.  Some of your arguments may be meritorious, but they still might upend the prediction of dominance.  In 2008 or even 2015 who but Ann Coulter might have perdicted Trump would follow Obama.

What would make it unlikely? Look at how long Republican dominated everything from the Civil War up until the New Deal

[junior chįmp]

The Republican party is such a scam at this point that it is hard to imagine it not losing relevance over time.

Successful parties need to have some logical chain by which good outcomes for voter groups are delivered through their policies. The modern day GOP has no semblance of political principle or understanding of policy. It's just angry rants in the style of a psychotic hobo.

The real bind for the GOP seems to be that there are enough evil and/or stupid people within the party to retain control, pushing out everyone with brains or integrity. It's pretty clear that in 5-10 years there won't be any people like Collins, McCain, Flake, etc left. There will only be people like Roy Moore and Kelli Ward because that it what the base wants. And it's hard to see a party of just those people be competitive outside a handful of deplorable states.

The GOP has always been a scam. They've never balanced the budget, they've never cut spending, they've never banned abortion, and they've never reduced the size of the government. Not to mention, the economy always does worse under their rule. They aren't good at anything.

We're basically all held hostage by an older generation of dumbasses at this point and we have to play the waiting game till we can vote them out.

[junior chįmp]

Trump doubling down on his midterm delusions:

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Yep....it's gonna be a blue flood of biblical proportions

[junior chįmp]

Trump doubling down on his midterm delusions:

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Yep....it's gonna be a blue flood of biblical proportions

He's just making things worse for the GOP. I can imagine Ryan and McConnell internally screaming for him to shut up. If anything, Trump's tweets about the midterms are energizing the Democrats.

btw, LOL at "Good Republican candidates"

Hopefully Trump and liquor enthusiast Bannon put up more terrible candidates and endorsements

These bozos are clueless about politics. They are so convinced that Trump's victory was somehow so historically unprecedented that the rules don't apply to them. When in reality Trump's victory is just being "fooled by randomness."

[junior chįmp]

Two positive views of Trump you all need to read:

https://pjmedia.com/trending/merry-trumpmas-america-good-news-everywhere-look/

http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/22/trumps-conservative-critics-concede-hes-winning/

MERRY CHRISTMAS

That first link seems less reliable than Daily Kos, so no comment.

As for the second link... Yeah. Trumpism is winning over Republicans. The problem is, he's driving Nice Polite Republicans out of the party. That's how you lost Alabama in a special election with mid-term like turnout. Celebrate this all you want, it's not a positive for you.

Imho each passing day increases the likelihood of a GOP split and a big time conservative independent in 2020.

Agreed with this, or a major realignment (or both)

You folks cannot read and do not understand.  Instead of the GOP being Trumpized, he is being GOPizd.  He is appointing conservative judges up and down the line, he is adopting the strong GOP foreign policy position (no Russian lackey is he), he is stronger in his support of Israel than even other Republican President, he is building up the military, you will see him allow the dreamer stay, he is cutting regulations.  He is following traditional GOP policies.

There will be no big time conservative insurgent in 2020. I supported Kaisch after Rubio dropped out in desperation.  But he was always a fool for running in 2016, as he had no support at all in the south. To win the GOP nomination a candidate needs significant support in the south.  He still has none in the south or anywhere else. 

So who will this big time conservative be?  McCain will be dead. Romney and Jeb have no support. Flake, who cannot achieve renomination? It is more likely that if Trump thought he did not have a chance to be re-gelected, he would declare he had achieved his goals and choose not to run again. 

Realignment.  Right now I think you are putting the cart before the horse. 1964 and 1974 did not destroy the party.  If the Democrats continue there anti law enforcement positions, they are going to get a backlash from the WWC.  Remember most local police are WWC. There policies of continuous income redistribution will run into problems with the white middle class.

Nope. Your wrong. GOP only won popular vote in 6 of the last 7 elections. This is a dying party that will grow smaller and smaller and go bust like every Trump business ever. Realignment imminent and get used to it