1994 and 2010 were energetic years for Republicans, but in both cases they were rebukes of both the previous Republican president and the new Democratic administration.
That model doesn't need to hold in 2022, but it's worth considering that the elements that animate the party in the coming cycle might be more critical of Trump (or at least eager to move past him), especially if he continues to urge his supporters to leave the GOP.
That is the conventional wisdom. It might hold, but some reasons for skepticism are worth considering:
- Trump left office with a 30% approval rating, which is low enough to indicate that a substantial number of reliable Republicans were alienated.
- Many Trump Republicans are low-propensity voters who won't be voting in primaries without celebrity narratives to maintain their engagement.
- Trump is openly musing about starting a new party. His continuing relevance, such that it is, will not necessarily channel his supporters into activity within the GOP.
- Many of these people have now been programmed to believe that voting doesn't work. This will continue to discourage their turnout. We have already lived through one election in which Trump Republican turnout was depressed in part because many of his acolytes encouraged his supporters not to vote on account of the party's "betrayal."
- The Biden presidency is sure to fracture the Democratic coalition in some ways and this will create openings for expanding the GOP vote.
Of course one thing that GOP mid-term reactions have never been is moderate, so none of this is to suggest that a post-Trump Republican awakening will be any more appealing to you than its Trump-era manifestation.
Most of them say they are disatisfied with voting but will continue to vote(see Georgia runoffs)
Also Third parties like a Trump party will not go anywhere
