🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Aurelio21]

The problem is that both FDP and Grünen are dangerously close to the 5% hurdle. If Liberals fail and Greens hold, it'd be fantastic; if both fail, it'll be a disastrous outcome. On the other hand, I get the impression that both CDU and FDP are trapped in an impossible dilemma. The parties of the "democratic right" reject alliances with the "populist right", but also reject to tolerate a minority government led by Ramelow (minority governments are not usual in Germany, right?). I guess it's not only a matter of anticommunism; christian democrats and liberals must be afraid of further AfD gains at their expense... Any recent poll?

Here the most recent poll one week ago:
 
CDU 19% -2.7
SPD 8 % NC
GRÜNE 6 % +1
FDP 6 % +1
LINKE 32 % +1
AfD 24 % +3
Others 5 % NC

Source:
Infratest
dimap
MDR
T • 1.000
executed from 21.01. to 25.01.
published 28.01.2020

Note that was BEFORE the election. Even flirting with the AfD gave them a boost of legitimacy in the eye of the CDU electorate. At the base of the CDU, FDP and even rural SPD voters and local politicians (Guido Reil is one of the typical represantitves of this class of SPD members) the AfD topics are seen as quite right, only their extremism kept theses voters and funtionaries from aligning them with it or in case of the SPD finally breaking with the party and thus taking the last step of the SPD death spiral.

A snap election would only accelerate these trends. I am expecting a result like this:
LINKE: 34 %
AfD: 28 %
CDU: 15 %
FDP: 8 %
SPD: 6 % (if they are lucky)
Greens: 5 % (they will not profit in a very small town state like Thuringia from FFF)
Others: 4 %

[Aurelio21]

I'm getting the feeling that Kemmerich could be gone very soon.

There will be an enormus pressure. But don't underestimare the clinging to power (and pork) by the FDP and CDU.

I am old enough to remember the precedent in Hesse in 2000: After the involvement into the CDU donation scandal of the CDU prime minister Koch became known, the local FDP chairman wanted to break the coalition and call for snap elections. In the end, the functionaries of the FDP duped him and continued the coalition, with the result of an CDU majority at the next election.

Fast forward to today: About 2/3 of the CDU caucus favor a cooperation with the AfD, and the FDP just wants ministerial posts, and benefits for pharmacists and hoteliers. That's their only left purpose.

Mike Mohring (Chairman CDU Thuringia) has just prevented the CDU from splitting. Keep in mind that 2 CDU MP voted for Ramelow, and 1 CDU MP abstained (likely Mohring himself under these three). If he would have had the power, there would be a LINKE-CDU government or toleration now.
His party adversaries have openly proposed a AfD-backed CDU-FDP minority government. Thus his days are over now.

Anyone in the CDU caucus claiming that he or she would be surprised by the election either lies or lies to himself. A tactical voting of the AfD was likely, as their own PM candidate proposed an AfD-CDU-FDP cooperation as his main motif of his candidacy.

Thus I conclude: If Mohring is disposed by his own caucus and party (likelier than not), and regarding the stubbornness of many Thuringians against interference from outside (an heritage of 50 years control by the Soviets), than Kemmerich's chances aren't that bad.
Either he will have a continued minority government formed by the FDP, sustained by CDU and AfD informally.
In a snap election, the AfD will continue to rise, CDU to decay, FDP gaining some ground due to Kemmerich's courage. This would only cement his position, as the AfD will continue its strategy of minority tolerance and thus not expose their inability to be part of a government.

There are several examples in Weimar history of a PM split of his party and backed by the other block, like Max Heldt (Old SPD) in saxony.

[Aurelio21]

About Mr. Ziemiak: How dumb does he think that everyone is? 18 of 21 CDU MP voted for Mr. Kemmerich. 82 % of the caucus is open for a cooperation with the AfD.

Calling for a snap election is the only face-saving gesture for saving the CDU/CSU-SPD federal government.

In Thuringia, a AfD-tolerated minority government has widespread support of municipal office holders, not only from CDU and FDP, but from many unaffiliated and Freie Wähler.

[Aurelio21]

CDU federal chairwomen Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer:

"The Thuringian CDU has acted against the expressed recommendations, demands, and pleas of the federal party."

She also joined the calls that a snap election in Thuringia may the best way out of this.

Translation: Everyone within the CDU knew about the plan for electing Mr. Kemmerich. Contrary to the claim of Mr. Mohring who said "this just happened" and "who could ever think of the AfD would play along". Again, how dumb does he think everyone else is?

[Aurelio21]

There was an alledged CDU Meeting on the eve of the election where they committed themselves an electing Kemmerich. With support of Bernhard Vogel, Ex-PM. Who stems from western germany.

This was totally calculated. As I mentioned above, on municipal level are cooperations of FDP, CDU, AfD and Freie Wähler quite common. Especially in Thuringia.

Next CDU-FDP-AfD cooperation candidate is Saxony-Anhalt, where Greens and CDU despise each other, and several district level CDU barons are calling for a CDU minority government supported by AfD and FDP.

[Aurelio21]

The FDP Bundestag Caucus' deputy leader (and former Vice President of the European Parliament) Alexander Graf Lambsdorff has just tweeted that Thomas Kemmerich should resign immediately.

Kemmerich is such an idiot, it is incredible. His only chance now is to immediately step down and offer a public apology for accepting his election. Otherwise, we'll see new state elections very soon, which will most likely end in a disaster for both CDU and FDP.

Kemmerich and Lindner both approved this strategy. They want a slice of the CDU / AfD electorate. Exactly what made the comeback in 2017 possible. This short-sighted strategy is indeed idotic, in multiple ways:

FDP: Short term this maybe successfull (with the FDP getting some votes from CDU voters which disapprove the strategy of Mr. Mohring), long term is no need for an AfD light

CDU: Totally losing their credibility as "party of the middle". This day is the first of the last of Angela Merkel as strategist of the CDU opening itself to the left ,and AKK as she is a federal chairwoman without say in anything. She barely got re-elected with the argument of chaos without her. Now her authority is severely damaged, and can only repaired by either an agreement in Thuringia with the LINKE, and/or snap elections.

As you may have read my last post, the election of Kemmerich was coordinated in an meeting of all barons of the CDU Thuringia on election eve, including the benediction of Ex-PM Bernhard Vogel.

Thus stepping back either breaks the CDU Thuringia in the next election, or more likely AKK. Local chairman Mohring is also severely damaged and will likely not be a CDU leader in a snap election. He has agreed on a minority government, the only way to power for him.

[Aurelio21]

Next CDU-FDP-AfD cooperation candidate is Saxony-Anhalt, where Greens and CDU despise each other, and several district level CDU barons are calling for a CDU minority government supported by AfD and FDP.

After what happened today, there won't be any 'next' - the backlash we see right now is way too massive and AKK, Söder, and Ziemiak made it clear that any sort of (informal) cooperation with the AfD is not acceptable. And other than Mohring, Haseloff will do what they tell him.

As I have already observed at previous occassions, there's a significant and increasing split between the West German/federal CDU and the East German CDU (and apparently between their respective FDP counterparts) on the issue, so before a CDU-AfD coalition is actually forged in the Eastern states  the Eastern state chapters of the CDU may have to secede from the federal CDU and form sort of a East German CSU as a new and separate party.

The backlash is only in Western Germany, and will if not contained either severely damage the CDU here, or lead to a party split or exodus from CDU voters to the AfD in Eastern Germany. I am currently working in Eastern Germany, and talked with some colleagues. They totally approve of the actions of Mr. Kemmerich. "Die LINKE" is seen as party of yesterday, and not nearly as "hip" as in Western German Cities.

Any calls from the Greens to the CDU to exclude their sub-party from the CDU will only be met with more stubborness of the local CDU leaders. This is not how the CDU works. The party chairman has to integrate all internal squabbling to the outside. If not successful: Bye Bye Felicia. Or Bye Bye AKK

[Aurelio21]

Could have been a great option for FDP to do a "Busch Thor", who gained quickly after the last Swedish election (although later derailed by another abortion controversy) by being the first mainstream party, who stopped calling all voters for the right-wing party for nazis and racists and opening for cooperation with them. In the very best case, even an option for them to reach VVD/Venstre status in Germany (if CDU stayed on the Merkel course). However, FDP obviously also has a big share of MPs and elites members who are left-leaning on migration, so it was probably impossible for Lindner to make this move without too many internal problems, even though it seems a big possibility.

This was the covert strategy of Mr. Lindner in the 2017 election: Present themselves as a rational AfD. Only few people believed this, but helped the FDP back into the Bundestag.
In fear of losing the voters Lindner dismissed the CDU/CSU FDP Greens coalition in the aftermath of the election.

In the end, the main electorate of the FDP profited of the cheap labor from the refugees and extended expenditures in health care (think: hoteliers and pharmaceutical lobby). They will definitely not support a AfD coalition on federal level, yet they accepted the "useful idiots" who where to shy to elect the AfD, but FDP instead.

This is the great divide between Western and Eastern Germany: Ecomonically, both FDPs share the same goals. Socially is already a perceivable rift, and ideologically the FDP-East is on the same side as East-CDU(consists of turncoat former DDR intelligentsia and entrepreneurship) and AfD-East( economically decidedly left, but ideologically/socially conservative). Culture beats economy in Eastern Germany, or tribalism.

For Western Germany, this does not work as social class is the main glue of the FDP-West. If they would have a need of disguising an anti-Welfare and anti-Regulation policy (As the AfD West tried to implement until recently), they would do it. But alas: These things have been done the alleged left-leaning parties SPD and Greens 15 years ago(Hartz reforms, tax code reform benefitting corporations, not the small business owner). Even the current CDU has implemented more pro-blue-and-white collar workers policies than the Schröder SPD! Thus there is no need for an FDP anymore, except for lobbying hoteliers and pharmacists.

[Aurelio21]

I am currently working in Eastern Germany, and talked with some colleagues. They totally approve of the actions of Mr. Kemmerich. "Die LINKE" is seen as party of yesterday, and not nearly as "hip" as in Western German Cities.

Do you happen to work in Thuringia? Because the Left became strongest party in last October's election there. It's true though that the Left is considered to be in decline in Eastern states other than Thuringia. (And strictly speaking, if the Left weren't so strong in Thuringia, today's events would never have happened in the first place because there now would be CDU-SPD-FDP or CDU-SPD-Green majority government.)

No, but the way people think is completely different from the typical Westerner like me, who is quite open for possible positive cultural things from abroad.
The Left in Thuringia immensely profited from Bodo Ramelow, a typical Westerner open to other cultural input. The other Left parties in other states are in decline due to A) Overaging and B) the AfD fitting better the cultural mood (socially conservative, economically left-leaning).

My predictions for a snap election are only valid for the assumption that Mr. Ramelow does it again. Else, the AfD may eclipse both CDU and LINKE. Note that the CDU was perceived until recently in the East as "Workers Party" because they fit better the cultural tribalism (as they existed in the DDR and primal profiteur from turncoats). Thanks to "Mutti's" "Wir schaffen das" they have lost this benefit.

[Aurelio21]

The Presidium of the federal CDU has just unanimously voted to support a snap election in Thuringia. Which is interesting because Thuringian state chairman Mike Mohring is also a member of the Presidium on the federal level. Which is interesting because an unnamed spokesman of the Thuringian CDU was quoted earlier tonight as saying that his state chapter is rejecting calls from the federal level to support a snap election.

Which raises the question: Did Mike Mohring not participate in the aforementioned Presidium vote or did he just vote against the CDU state chapter he himself is the chairman of?


In other news, the FDP state chairwoman of Hamburg, Katja Suding, has just issued a statement that Kemmerich should have never assumed the office of MP and that a snap election should be held in Thuringia.

This is quite easy: As Eastern German, you have learned to suppress your real opinion masterly. Mohring will of course 100 % be for a snap election - as long as he is within 100 m of AKK.

As soon as he is back in Erfurt, he will masterfully do everything covertly and/or openly to disregard this and undermine it.

He has done this before: After the election, he wanted to form a Linke-CDU government, than a minority government supporting him by AfD. The federal party prohibited him from both. This did not matter at all, as yesterday and today totally proved. He simply send Mr Kemmerich as front, who let himself be elected by CDU and AfD, and offered the CDU a share of government posts.

[Aurelio21]

The Left in Thuringia has also managed to over the role the SPD is filling in states like Brandeburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and it's unclear whether this would simply switch back as soon Ramelow is gone (I assume Ramelow is still the Left's lead candidate in case of a snap election). Maybe this could and would be solidified as a Thuringian Sonderweg.

Elections here are more personality-driven than by party loyalty or "big topics". Thus the Greens will not profit as much as in Western Germany.

Die LINKE will renominate Ramelow, and will get votes from even more CDU-friendly voters than last time. Everything else would only benefit Mr. Kemmerich, who will dread this day as he and his family already receiving death threads from insanes.

It is quite clear what will happen next: AfD will profit massively, LINKE will extend or hold the level of support. FDP will likely get the votes from those who hated the R2G coalition as well. Losers will be CDU, SPD and Greens. The latter will have to fight for their existence, as the snap election campaign will be extremely polarizing(Bad Luck, SPD) and have no room for topics like ecology(Bad Luck, Greens).

[Aurelio21]

No, but the way people think is completely different from the typical Westerner like me, who is quite open for possible positive cultural things from abroad.

This is quite easy: As Eastern German, you have learned to suppress your real opinion masterly. Mohring will of course 100 % be for a snap election - as long as he is within 100 m of AKK.

Btw, I would also caution against overgeneralizations of East Germans. I was born in East Germany, my parents still live there, both voted for the Greens in last year's European Parliament elections (my father probably for the first time in at least 25 years - previously supported the FDP in 2017), and if anything the AfD's rise caused them to actually become more accepting of immigrants, since they felt that the AfD had gone way too far and that pushed them in the opposite direction. They were also shocked about today's events in Thuringia.

Then again, they do live in urban Halle (Saale) where the Greens came in second after the CDU in the 2019 European election.

Sorry for the generalization. I take this back. Of course, there are many brave men and women who made "Die Wende" possible. And living in cities like Halle cannot be compared to the average mood in a rather rural state or dominated by rural culture states, which are not dependend on tourist indurstry.

Obiviously, Mr Mohring is pretty good at "double talk" and finding a hole or a loop.

And there will be some backslash, arguably by a guaranteed win of Mr. Ramelow. And a surging AfD.

Would Mr Mohring have a "real job", he would have to apply to some rather unpleasant job as he would have been fired in complete disgrace.

[Aurelio21]

Why would Ramelow be gone? He is definitely going to be Linke's candidate for the next election given his popularity right? Especially if snap elections happen soon.

In fact there is a slim chance of a Red-Red-Green majority if FDP falls below threshold I think (maybe combined with some sort of CDU->SPD/Greens transfer of votes).

Granted I think a more likely scenario is FDP actually gaining for their "bravery" and "being the only true right wing party in Germany that is not insane" but still

Mr. Ramelow will not be gone. He is right now the most popular politician with an approval rate of 75 % - among CDU voters , better than the average.

FDP will gain some votes for "their Courage" via whisper Campaign.

The big winner will be the AfD, which is totally exonerated.

I would like to discuss the repurcussions in Western Germany. For the CDU, this is an unmitigated disaster, no matter what will happen. A snap election seems likely on the outward appearance- if Mr Mohring does not change his opinion again or has only done lip Services at the mentioned CDU presidium meeting.

Scenario A1: Snap election with moderate losses of the CDU and SPD stays in Thuringian diet:
AKK is save, for now. Maybe she will be the next main candidate , Maybe Mr. Merz will be finally successful at sniping

Scenario A2: Snap elections with severe losses (5 % plus x) for the CDU, the SPD Thuringia exterminated: At first, this keeps the SPD in government in awe of a final defeat. AKK will have to cede the chancellorship to Mr. Merz, or Mr. Laschet

Scenario B: Mr Mohring decides he cannot do anything as the CDU Thuringia MPs are free to do anything they want, even accidently not following the orders of AKK and the federal CDU. AKK will step back immediately after the defeat of the motion of no confidence at Thuringia diet. Mr. Merz, the likely co-conspirator of Mr. Mohring is the next chairman of the CDU. Mr. Laschet cannot react, as the majority of the CDU functionaries love power above everything else. The Merkelista defeat is complete.

[Aurelio21]

Bodo could pull a Kurz ... if there is indeed a snap election and return with a strengthened mandate.

But there needs to be a significant shift in the electorate for this to happen (the FDP receiving 0 seats would help).

It’s definitely not unlikely though after the events today ...

This is quite unlikely, as he would need the votes from the CDU. Thuringia's CDU has denied claims of a snap election.
By the way, the cooperation of CDU, FDP and AfD has been foreshadowed by several common votes on procedural topics in the time between. Even today, the Landtag adjourned himself with the votes of these three parties.
After watching this I come to the conlusion:
This is a full grown cooperation. Mr Mohring and Mr Kemmerich are lying through their teeth everytime when they say "Whoops, AfD voted with us accidentally. That is not our fault if they vote for us. But this is a democratically elected parliament, so everything is alright".

[Aurelio21]

Assuming the CDU of Thuringia is expelled, what happens to them? Does Thuringia get CDU against the CDU-Thuringen?

Has that ever happened in Germany? (even the CSU situation is quite different)

For a similar precedent, you would have to go to 1921, in saxony. This time, the federal SPD sacked the SPD saxony (which was the dominating party in these times with varying shares of votes from 30 to 45 % ) for a coalition government with the communist KPD.

Back to Thuringia: The CDU caucus continues to refuse snap elections - as I assumed. A snap election would be disastrous for them as they clearly know.

Either the dissolution motion of Kemmerich succeeds(If the CDU does not approve, they need Höcke's AfD - again) or the motion of no confidence (likely as FDP, Grüne, LINKE and SPD have a majority), and there will be no FDP votes for a new AfD supported prime minister again.

Thus a snap election is most likely.

Even if the rest of the forum thinks that a snap election is the only solution:
- The common thuringian CDU voter and FDP possible voter who sympathizes with the AfD has now an excuse to actually vote AfD.  Anyone remember the days after the election in october? From several local CDU barons to the Vice Caucus Chair a AfD-supportet minority government was proposed. The cooperation culminated with electing Kemmerich and adjourning the diet promises an alternate majority bejond a CDU SPD FDP coalition
- If Höcke is as cunning as he has shown, he will nominate a CDU sympathizing independent as PM candidate
- With changing their opinion and denying the obvious truth, CDU voters of the center / center-left will now likely abstain, or voting for SPD or Greens.
- The FDP will likely gain some votes for getting rid of Ramelow - he is not everywhere beloved!

An independent all-party government without the AfD would be a far more viable alternative.

[Aurelio21]

Looking at that poll, what happens in the plausible scenario where all of SPD, Greens and FDP fall below threshold?

Speaking of which, I hope FDP falls below threshold. That would allow for a relatively easy red red green coalition, which would solve the issues and allow Germany to kick the can of "what happens with a negative majority?" 4 more years.

Eventually, someone is going to have to cave in some German State (almost certainly in East Germany). Either CDU (and/or possibly FDP) cooperate with Linke, or they cooperate with AfD. But one cordon sanitaire will have to be broken eventually

Honestly, the FDP is the most unlikely party to drop under 5 %, Mr Kemmerich is beloved by those who hate Mr Ramelow.

First of all, a SPD failing to get elected into a state diet has never occured and will immediately lead to the CDU/CSU - SPD federal coalition falling apart. The federal SPD will be forced to leave the unloved coalition, leading to a federal snap election.

There will be enormus pressure from the federal CDU now on the local CDU to form a LINKE-lead "expert government".
Remember this?: https://www.rnd.de/politik/thuringer-cdu-politiker-koalition-mit-afd-nicht-ausschliessen-VHILWSU36CBULATOB5ZNO7OP4I.html

There is a strong movement within the CDU Thuringia to cooperate with the AfD. In this maelstrom, the last party of the center will be ruptured and torn apart. If the federal CDU wins, there would be a mass exodus of local politicians. If the municipal CDU wins, the federal CDU will be forced by the Greens to expel the whole chapter (as Mr. Habeck already dlaims for a viable CDU-Green-coalition).

The local and federal CDU are not driven by ideology, but for having a say in getting members and affiliates into alimented positions. In an "expert government", there is hardly a place for getting enough members well-paid positions and assignments (spoils system).  Thus the local CDU looses, which could not be replaced with enough jobs on federal level in a possible CDU-Greens coalition.

[Aurelio21]

Honestly, the FDP is the most unlikely party to drop under 5 %, Mr Kemmerich is beloved by those who hate Mr Ramelow.

I disagree. Kemmerich looks like a failure and a joke now who has been played by the AfD and then thrown under the bus. I can't imagine anyone "loving" him. It's even unclear whether he'll run again for parliament in the upcoming snap election. And considering the Left's election results and polling numbers, hatred against Ramelow is a fringe position in Thuringia. His approval rating is high across the supporters of pretty much any party with the exception of maybe the AfD (but they tend to hate everyone).

Did you talk about that to your colleagues again? Well, my East German parents are happy that Kemmerich's is gone so quickly, including my formerly FDP-suppporting dad.

Mr Kemmerich: Personally, I totally agree. Don't think I appreciated anything at him. I am glad that he is as good as gone. In every western state, he would be burnt toast.
But even if 80 % of the electorate in Thuringia consider him a laughinh stock, if only half of the rest votes for him, he would gain votes. And his campaign followed Mr. Lindner's playbook quite closely (seemingly anti-refugee or AfD-lite).

Poltical talk: Not yet. Usually, I don't talk about politics this much and avoid this as potential conflict source. Some have a "distinct opinion" about the Left and left-leaning policies, to say the least.

And please consider the article I linked: A good portion of the CDU/FDP voters and functionaries approve of a collaboration with the AfD for the sake of political positions. These adverse interests (local vs. federal) will prove as millstone in an election campaign. The functionaries at the base of these parties want something real for their motivation. A "expert government" is no motivation, just perceived as cover for the federal CDU and western state CDUs.

[Aurelio21]

Honestly, the FDP is the most unlikely party to drop under 5 %, Mr Kemmerich is beloved by those who hate Mr Ramelow.

I disagree. Kemmerich looks like a failure and a joke now who has been played by the AfD and then thrown under the bus. I can't imagine anyone "loving" him. It's even unclear whether he'll run again for parliament in the upcoming snap election. And considering the Left's election results and polling numbers, hatred against Ramelow is a fringe position in Thuringia. His approval rating is high across the supporters of pretty much any party with the exception of maybe the AfD (but they tend to hate everyone).

Did you talk about that to your colleagues again? Well, my East German parents are happy that Kemmerich's is gone so quickly, including my formerly FDP-suppporting dad.

Mr Kemmerich: Personally, I totally agree. Don't think I appreciated anything at him. I am glad that he is as good as gone. In every western state, he would be burnt toast.
But even if 80 % of the electorate in Thuringia consider him a laughinh stock, if only half of the rest votes for him, he would gain votes. And his campaign followed Mr. Lindner's playbook quite closely (seemingly anti-refugee or AfD-lite).

Poltical talk: Not yet. Usually, I don't talk about politics this much and avoid this as potential conflict source. Some have a "distinct opinion" about the Left and left-leaning policies, to say the least.

And please consider the article I linked: A good portion of the CDU/FDP voters and functionaries approve of a collaboration with the AfD for the sake of political positions. These adverse interests (local vs. federal) will prove as millstone in an election campaign. The functionaries at the base of these parties want something real for their motivation. A "expert government" is no motivation, just perceived as cover for the federal CDU and western state CDUs.

could with in 20 years you see a cdu and fdp working with the afd?

I am for paying attention for detail:
- Until now, there were several motions in the thuringian diet, in which CDU, FDP and AfD made a common cause against R2G. Including yesterday adjourning the parliament to shield Mr Kemmerich from embarrassing questions he would have had to face. During his acceptance speech, he did NOT allow any questions and rebuttals. This is very uncommon in german parliaments where every caucus ALWAYS gets a speaking time to react to government declarations

- There will be enormous pressure from subsidary organisations in Thuringia, like the junior CDU, the SBO association etc. who either want positions or influence on economical policies where they see the AfD as "minor" nuissance. A delcartion Pro Kemmerich from these associations happened today in accordance with Mr Mohring. 30 minutes before Mr. Kemmerich declared he would propose a dissolution of parliament or a Schröder-motion-of confidence(he intends to lose to pave the way for snap elections).

Yesterday we just whitnessed how far this cooperation-in-denial has proceeded. Just wait for my mentioned scenario with no viable partners (SPD death spiral) for the CDU left except the Greens. This will rupture the party apart.

[Aurelio21]

But even if 80 % of the electorate in Thuringia consider him a laughinh stock, if only half of the rest votes for him, he would gain votes. And his campaign followed Mr. Lindner's playbook quite closely (seemingly anti-refugee or AfD-lite).

Even if he were to actually gain votes over having to resign after only 24 hours as MP this doesn't take into account the votes he previously had and may lose now. Maybe his losses over this whole affair will by far outweigh any gains? And like I said, it's far from certain that he will even run again for parliament. Today, he refused to answer that question in his press conference.



Anyway, the AfD has started to send mixed with regards to the motion to call a snap election:

State chair Stefan Möller - it tends to be unlikely that the AfD's members of parliament will support this

Federal chair Tino Chrupalla - it's a good thing that there's a snap election now

Ah, well, it seems through a vote of confidence there will be a snap election one way or the other.

Let's wait and see. The most recent poll seems to indicate more gains than losses. In the SBO community, he will be very popular. Also with the typical more-right-than-center voter who constitutes his albeit small voter base. There is not a considerable FDP voter base in Thuringia like in Rhineland Palatinate which is open to a coaltion with the SPD. With my calculation, he will win more support. But your thesis might be also vindicated.

[Aurelio21]

Just wondering what would happen if say the afd ever won a outright majority in any of the Landtag?

They need to double their support in these eastern states, which isn't very likely. I guess it would cause a huge backlash on the streets.

But woulda afd government be accepted by the federal government?

First of all, this question is still irrelevant. The pre-requisite is a total wrecking of the contemporary party system. And Mike Mohring is doing everything to undo the consensus on which the CDU was built on after WW2: Voter coalition of the Weimar parties Zentrum( catholic big tent Party) the DNVP(conservatives and landowners) and classic liberal parts of the DVP joining for never needing help from a far right party again for keeping power.
The bigger question would be: Would a AfD majority government in a state accepted by the ministerial bureaucracy? See what happens at the White House, only on a bigger scale as it is Happening now and plagues the current Administration. A Party here in charge cannot simply fire everyone under a minister and the half of the level under it, the parliamentarian state secretaries. In the ministries, these positions are filled with party affiliates of all other parties.

Personally, I do not see the social competence needed at the AfD. The bureacracy simply would do DNV (Dienst nach Vorschrift) or passive resistance, including leaks of embarrassing comments. This alone would overthrow an AfD government within months.

Just look what happened to Mr Kemmerich: Yesterday, he defended his position at all costs. Today, after not being accepted by his ministerial staff and getting briefed by a 180-turn C Lindner, he proposes his own demise ASAP.

[Aurelio21]

Regarding the turnout: This might still be the election with the second highest turnout of elections in Saxony-Anhalt in reunified Germany.
Here (4 pm) are numbers to compare:
https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2021/landtagswahl-sachsen-anhalt-2021.html
Note that except for the last row these are only election day turnouts.
Historical absentee vote percentage shares can be found here:
https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen-anhalt/landtagswahl/briefwahl-sachsen-anhalt-fragen-antworten-100.html
A not represantative poll of using absentee or election day vote can be found here:
https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen-anhalt/landtagswahl/frage-der-woche-grosse-mehrheit-wird-waehlen-gehen100.html
For me, even if the absentee vote is about 14 percentage points share, the turnout will be slightly higher than 2016.
As the AfD tradionally activates former non-voter, a high turnout points to a good result for them. The election 1998 was the one with the highest turnout - when the SPD had still a polulist bend, the CDU was in low regard due to the last days of the Kohl government - and an obscure extreme right wing party DVU scored nearly 13 % - which no poll indicated.
This can happen again. The state media like ARD and ZDF are not trusted by a large percentage, thus it might happen the same as in the 2020 US election polling and the high number of undecided voters which where in reality shy republicans or voters which were not reachable for those pollsters.
Furthermore: The CDU election campaign was mainly a virtual reality and digital campaigning - an unusual decision for a party with an mainly 65+ electorate.  The other parties in government or close to the CDU (like FDP and Free Voters) had anemic election campaign - like estimated 40 people at the final rally of the SPD. Only the AfD had some reasonable visitorship.

About the polls: The trends of the last days are more conclusive. Greens and FDP have a bad last minute trend like in the saxony 2019 Landtag election, there was a noticeable last-minute-swing from these parties to the CDU because the CDU campaign made the last minute argument to prevent the AfD to become the strongest party. My gut feeling says this might be the outcome:

CDU: 31
AfD: 26
Linke: 11
SPD: 11
Greens: 7
FDP: 5-6
Others: 9-10 incl. 2 % Free voters

[Aurelio21]

As the AfD tradionally activates former non-voter, a high turnout points to a good result for them.

That the AfD will get a 'good' result (>20%) is obvious - although I wouldn't use the term "traditionally" here. Just like many other protest parties, the AfD mobilized quite a few low-propensity voters during its emergence period (2013-17); but that does not mean that the rest of them also leans to the right.

And, honestly, the result of the AfD is not really important as long as they don't become the strongest party. And even that would only be meaningful on the symbolic level. Not in terms of coalition building.

and an obscure extreme right wing party DVU scored nearly 13 % - which no poll indicated.

The DVU was anything but obscure back then. Both its previous election results (6.2% in Bremen; 6.3% in Saxony-Anhalt) and its financial backing by Gerhard Frey were widely discussed.

This can happen again.

Sure, many things can happen. But, again, it's pretty meaningless when the real question is: Do we see once again a Kenya coalition - or will it be necessary to include the FDP as well?

The state media like ARD and ZDF are not trusted by a large percentage,

I don't know anybody who doesn't trust them, let alone 'a large percentage'. This may be the case among Querdenker and far-right lunatics but the median citizen has a high degree of trust in ARD & Co. (easily 70%+).

thus it might happen the same as in the 2020 US election polling and the high number of undecided voters which where in reality shy republicans or voters which were not reachable for those pollsters.

Highly unlikely. Different polling methodologies, different electorates, different circumstances (national vs. state, person vs. party...).

Also, the narrative of 'shy AfD voters' does not really explain why the AfD has underperformed in most recent state elections.

Furthermore: The CDU election campaign was mainly a virtual reality and digital campaigning - an unusual decision for a party with an mainly 65+ electorate. The other parties in government or close to the CDU (like FDP and Free Voters) had anemic election campaign - like estimated 40 people at the final rally of the SPD. Only the AfD had some reasonable visitorship.

Bernie Sanders did as well. It's a populist thing, you know...

Seriously: rally size is an extremely weak indicator for election results. For many reasons I'm too lazy to explain now.

Let's wait what the result will be. My prognosis about the trends what happened was about right. Greens+FDP severely underperformed as those who wanted to prevent an AfD victory

I take no sides in this.

You are the typical green voter - insulting anyone who is not 100 % on your line as "Lunatic" and "Querdenker". I have worked in Saxony-Anhalt, there is a certain mistrust of a large percentage, not all, towards the state and state media. If you are living in an university town in the west of Germany, maybe you do not know what the STASI was.

If you had lived or worked in Saxony-Anhalt, you would know there are lot of more critical thinking voters.