Aurelio21
Rookie
Posts: 131
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« on: November 05, 2018, 09:34:45 PM » |
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This spells doom for both Rs. Volusia County
A) Modell 2014: It validates that the race is D+2 and thus confirms the poll average
B) Modell 2016: This is even much worse and would spell doom for the GOP legislature (At least FL Sen flipping). Trump's victory was propelled by this type of counties: The Obama Coalition collapsed there. Andrew Gillum fixed it.
Based on this, this (barring any flukes) suggests an 1-2 % margin of victory for Nelson and Gillum 2-3 %
Clark County:
Basically, it shows the same pattern: The "Trump Coalition" of WWC Democrats is in dire shape. There is no "Red Wave" the Trumpistas are talking about in their echo chambers.
Brown leading shows that the populist part of the democratic coalition can be won back. Yet their concerns must be taken seriously, e g with a sensible Bill-Clinton-Immigration law.
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