Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Aurelio21]

@DataGuy:
Thx for the illuminating details, the Texas Tribune hasn't updated yet its totals.

When I am looking at these numbers: Are there precinct-level turnout absolute numbers anywhere available? E G the Campus EV?


Next weekend totals should at least give a hint who is leading the GOTV efforts before Election Day.
Please note that Harris, Dallas, Bexar and Travis County have about 5.5 Million registered voters. Nueces is 48/47 Trump/Clinton and Tarrant, Denton and Collin had the greatest swing away from Trump outside Utah.

[Aurelio21]

I took a look at the amount the final RCP average was off the actual results in 2016 in some of these states.  This is what I found:

FL   +1.0 R
IN   +8.3 R
MO +7.5 R
TX   -3.0 R
AZ   -0.5 R
NV   -3.2 R

If this were added/subtracted from the current RCP results, the Republicans would take IN, MO, TX and AZ (by 0.2). The Democrats would take FL and NV.

I looked at these numbers earlier... but for a different reason.  Since elections tend to have a pendulum swing effect... I was wondering if polling models would over-compensate for 2016 polling errors.  If so, this would lead to polls in IN & MO being tilted a bit too Republican this year... and polls in NV & TX to a lesser extent being slightly tilted Dem.  Polls in AZ & FL staying about the same.

If over-correcting is the case- all of these Senate races really are razor edge close this year (other than Texas... but Texas has its own polling challenges this year in trying to gauge the Beto effect).  The states potentially most affected by over-correcting would be IN & MO, since they were outside the margin of error in 2016. (If an over-correcting occurred, polls could indicate that IN & MO would go Dem this year).

Has J.J. ever heard of "confirmation bias"? Polling in 2016 was not weighed for education which resulted in the infamous underpolling of Mr Trump. Reading pollsters like Siena helps understand the world around you.

Siena et al have corrected their method -  and are likely poised to underestimate the Democrats this time.
The hypothesis of DataGuy is much more plausible, as Undecided voters are primarily undecided about re-electing the incumbent. Usually, they decide to give someone they think to know a second chance. Negative qualities are remembered 10 times better than positive qualities, unless you know things about someone beforehand(advantage for the incumbent) and immunizes your belief system against negativity.

[Aurelio21]

If you compare EV turnout in rural Nevada 2016 to 2018: The turnout has already reached presidential levels, while in Clark it is 10 %Points under the 2016 level:
2018:
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5981
2016:
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4567

Note that like in 2016, Election day only accounts for appr. 2/5 of the vote cast in Nevada.
Secondly, the absolute EV+VBM 2018 vs 2016
Take Carston City, for example: The Republicans absoulte numbers have decreased about 200, while the Democrats have added 600 votes. Thus at least in Nevada, there is no evidence of a "red tidal wave in rural America" , rather a cannibalized early vote there. Whereas in Clark County, about 50,000 Democrats haven't voted yet.

(Added )

[Aurelio21]

So the Clark freiwal is over 47K, and 40K was supposed to be enough to make Republicans sweat. The statewide lead is currently over 23K (will probably drop just under once all the rurals are in), and 15K was the goal for Democrats... While that's technically not insurtmountable for Republicans, they would need the same kind of margin in raw numbers (not %) that they got on ED, as well as a hefty lead among Independents to just barely scrape by.

I'd say it's more likely that, once again, the polls were off in Nevada, and we get Senator Rosen and Governor Sisolak, and their races won't be nail-biters either...

First of all, I am trying to be as objective as I can. As you can see from my avatar, I am from Germany and am wishing that a certain German Chancelor would have never opened the borders. Until this time, there was practically no crime in the small city I am living in.

The Trump strategy contradicts your proposed goals needed for Victory(edited word), it is based on turning out the rural base. But as turnout in rural nevada is around 53 % already, there are simply no republicans left for overcoming the 23,000 votes!! Instead of focussing on bread-and-butter issues, I highly doubt that in this nationalized climate indenpendents will break 2:1 for Mr Heller, or that all Democrats sit out the election and will try to vote on November 7th.

[Aurelio21]

Cumulative Texas early vote report, in-person + mail-in/absentee.

Clinton Counties

Harris County: 36.59% of reg. voters, 87.56% of 2016.
Dallas County: 39.66% of reg. voters, 96.33% of 2016.
Bexar County: 37.71% of reg. voters, 87.77% of 2016.
Travis County: 47.43% of reg. voters, 97.45% of 2016.
El Paso County: 30.51% of reg. voters, 92.46% of 2016.
Fort Bend County: 46.14% of reg. voters, 93.30% of 2016.
Hidalgo County: 31.68% of reg. voters, 81.93% of 2016.
Cameron County: 26.37% of reg. voters, 84.96% of 2016.

Trump Counties

Tarrant County: 41.49% of reg. voters, 90.41% of 2016.
Collin County: 49.39% of reg. voters, 94.85% of 2016.
Denton County: 45.96% of reg. voters, 95.29% of 2016.
Montgomery County: 41.42% of reg. voters, 88.08% of 2016.
Williamson County: 48.97% of reg. voters, 100.01% of 2016.
Galveston County: 42.41% of reg. voters, 88.84% of 2016.
Nueces County: 32.96% of reg. voters, 90.36% of 2016.

Averages

Trump Counties: 43.23% of reg. voters, 92.55% of 2016.
Clinton Counties: 37.01% of reg. voters, 90.22% of 2016.


Overall, Trump counties saw higher turnout both in terms of registered voters and relative to 2016's numbers.

Drilling into specific regions, one of the most energized counties was Travis County, which is bad news for the GOP since it's heavily Democratic. But on the flip side, Republicans also have reason to be optimistic due to lackluster enthusiasm in overwhelmingly Democratic South Texas. That suggests that perhaps the Hispanic voter surge, which is said to be coming every election year, might not too big after all.

Thx for the estimates and table. Are these the final numbers including friday?
I am by no means a Beto fanboy. Yet shoud be mentioned, that Collin, Denton and Williamson County had a swing >10% away from Trump, and only in Montgomery County the absolute margin Trump/Clinton was comparable with the margins of Harris and Travis County.

I expect Cruz to win at least with a margin of 5%. O'Rourke does not want to go negative and wastes his chances. This should drive the Hispanics on the Southern Border despite being socially conservative into the Democrat's camp.
How about a misleading add/misleading twitter campaign in spanish by an anonymous PAC "Mi derechos cívicos " distorting Mr Trump's confabulation of executive orders repealing the birthright citizenship amendment for children born by illegal immigrants into repealing the citizenship of ALL HISPANICS close to the border? ;-)

Mrs McCaskill and Beto should exchange their bodies, she would not hesitate doing this. ;-)