FL Panhandle Haas Center: Scott +7 in the Panhandle

[GlobeSoc]

Lol at Scott only bring +7 in the panhandle. Combine that with Nelson leading only 4 with Hispanics, I think we have a realignment of populist WWC Dems vs minority Repubs.

this but unironically, but only because of the unique circumstances of this race (It might bleed over to the governors race, and into a general downballot weirdness if GOV matchup Putnam v Graham, but I doubt that matchup will occur). Scott leaning into the hispanic vote will cause North Florida whites some economic anxiety, and Nelson has natural strength in the region too.

[GlobeSoc]

Nelson has always overperformed with North FL voters, and Scott is targeting Hispanics hard. Possible that we get a very weird map like this

I said this to you on discord, and I'll say it again on Atlas: Nelson will probably do somewhat better than that in the rural areas, and a bit worse in central Florida, and Miami-Dade going R is lol, even if I think it will be close-ish because of my analysis

[GlobeSoc]

Nelson has always overperformed with North FL voters, and Scott is targeting Hispanics hard. Possible that we get a very weird map like this

I'd give Scott Monroe.

also also this

[GlobeSoc]

I’ll be #edgy and predict that there will be no realignment. Scott will do better with Hispanics than Republicans usually do, yeah, but if he wins it will be because Nelson absolutely collapsed in the Panhandle and other GOP areas.

I'm arguing that there will be a fluke election here, not that this will be some permanent RETURN TO THE 1990S. I guess it's possible if the GOV election had the right matchup, but even then national factors would reassert themselves in 2020...