Roy Moore has won multiple statewide elections, so excuse me if I don't put much stock in this analysis about Alabama from a Washington elite.
Lol, he managed to make an election close. In Alabama. In a 'normal' year. He's a D U M B B O Y E.
In a low turnout special vs Moore, if black people and college students poll spam in reaction to his candidacy, educated suburbanites abstain or vote dem in protest, and the white rural areas don't mobilize for Moore, the dem could win. The first condition I would give 80-20 odds, the second 55-45, and the last one 45-55. Each of them on their own is very possible, but I give that perfect storm of all 3 a 20% chance of happening, hence why I think it's likely R
The Luther Strange path is similar, but with white rural areas being a bit more democratic, and educated suburbs being a bit less.
With Brooks, there is no path.
