After two terms of Trump? I doubt there is any way a Republican can win, let alone by 100 EVs and let alone it is done by Cruz
Maybe if democrats stopped their divisive identity politics rethoric. That's one of the reasons they continue to lose.
As the previous poster has mentioned, just saying the democrats use identity politics is bullsh**t. Both sides due it
Identity politics - a tendency for people of a particular religion, race, social background, etc., to form exclusive political alliances, moving away from traditional broad-based party politics.
Tell me that doesn't sound similar with the way the Republican Party courts white voters
Anyway, first off saying the Democrats continue to lose is incorrect. First off they lost only one national election so far based off of this by a horribly corrupt and incompetent candidate. And saying the Democrats continue to lose fails to mention the many democratic wins in Virginia, New Jersey, and elsewhere that have occurred. I agree with you that the democrats should stop focusing on identity politics but saying they keep losing and only keep losing on that issue alone is incorrect. Now getting besides that point, i do agree that the Republicans could have a 1-5% chance of winning in 2024 under two terms of Trump if the Democrats continue on identity politics put it is ignoring many precedents. First off: The Republican and the Democrats rarely ever win three terms for there party's. The last one was under HW Bush and before him Truman and that was only because the president before them was a popular realigning president. Trump is neither popular (approvals in the 30s) and is not a realigning president (losing the popular vote by 2% and winning 3 states by less then 1% that haven't been won since the 1980s is not a realignment). The chance of a third term by his party is virtually zilch by historical standards. Second: The third terms of said party don't usually win elections on the back level as the realigner. Bush and Truman both won handily but there victory's paled in comparison to that of FDR and Ronald Reagan. A Cruz victory of 100 electoral votes in 2024 which is greater then that of Trumps 2016 victory with a greater popular vote and vote total thus would not happen if Trump was a supposed realigning president. I don't know the electoral total for 2020 but if it matchs that of Cruz's victory here, then it would be historically invalid. Third: Ted Cruz? really. That smarmy little worm who is unlikable and was called Lyin Ted by the Donald. Why would he of anyone win the Trump voters (i assume he does in your map) by enough to win states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Maine. He is unliked in the Suburbs and would do worse in the rural areas in those areas and those would lose those states. Finally, speaking of the map it ignores any demographic growth at all. By 2024, Hispanic growth in states like Florida, Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada would be enough to force the republican to get a large margin among them to win. Cruz may be Hispanic, but that does not guarantee him any more Hispanic votes then Trump and he would need those votes if he is winning Nevada and Colorado against a minority western democrat.
In my opinion the map would look more like this:
(I was mixed on Ohio flipping or not)
