FL-Sen: Quinnipiac: Nelson 49, Scott 49

[Ye We Can]

1. Of course, the FLGOP has a great GOTV operation. What I referred to is that Scott doesnt use his money on that, compared to Nelson, who does. And while the FLGOP has a pretty good operation, it pails in comparison to what Nelson sets up every election cycle.

Source?

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This isn’t really true, though:

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/27/bill-nelson-florida-senate-democrats-rick-scott-795695

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Depends on what you mean by "break"? He’s doing (significantly, depending on what poll you are inclined to believe more) better among Hispanic voters than Trump did in 2016.

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Yeah, that result wouldn’t be surprising at all, I just find your reasoning a little bizarre.

1. My proof is Nelson's victories in 2006 and 2012, where Nelson relied on GOTV, getting some of the best results in the state. TBH, the FLGOP is a bit overhyped in this category.

2. I seem to have gotten the numbers wrong, the actual expenditures are

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According to the last FEC report.

But for airtime, I am mostly correct. According to current reports:

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So, currently, the airwaves are 30% Nelson, and 70% Scott. Most of Nelson's ads are by outside groups. If/When Nelson starts putting money behind the operation, we could actually see more Nelson ads on air than Scott ads.

3. That is true, Scott is trying to break the D coalition, but, if he were, we should see a better result for him. And while Q showed him doing great with Hispanics, it is just one poll, and the overall majority shows him flopping with him. Its clear that is his strategy, it seems that even DeSantis is going to attempt it, but, with the money coming in for Nelson, its hard to see Scott improving. This should have been his glorious moment, and in the end, he can only tie.

Anyway, I think it will be close, but I dont rate it a tossup. Even with a low margin, I just think thats the state's inelastic tendencies not to go out of the 5% zone, unless you break the armour, and I dont see either candidate doing that. Nelson does have a clear advantage, though.

(((Damage Control)))