WI-Marquette: Tied

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Gold Standard™ Strikes again. I'll believe this poll more than any of the others that don't poll Wisconsin as solidly as they do. They do the best in weighting and just have the best track record in the state.  

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Don't get complacent, Dems. Keep fighting...even when it looks hopeless right now.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Don't get complacent, Dems. Keep fighting...even when it looks hopeless right now.

Tie = Hopeless?

Those on the fence were prolly just shy GOPers in the height of the Pittsburgh shooting...they are coming home as the Dem bump wears off in a week.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Honestly Baldwin likely puts Evers over the finish line.

Doubt it. If he can't keep it within 10 pts. of her, that speaks to the unique strength of the Walker campaign. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Hopefully this is the year Marquette's reputation is utterly destroyed.

I don't see why they'd get it wrong this year.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

What I want to know is...why are people so quick to denigrate Marquette when they are a state institution?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Keep hedging, Marquette

Nope they just refuse to herd with lower quality pollsters.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is my last post of the day, but I will end with this: If Evers does indeed win, then I will be regarding MU Law as Walker's secret R internal from now on!

I can't wait until the vaguely subpar Emerson poll gets released this Friday, which will most likely show Evers with a lead! Also, Suffolk might be releasing a poll for WI soon, too!

So, basically, you're just waiting for more favourable numbers from pollsters you admit are of lower quality?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Favorables are about the same:

Evers - 42/41
Walker - 48/49

Not a good sign this close to Election Day how many people still have no opinion on Evers

Yep, meanwhile High Energy Walker still has that magic he had all 3 times he won (especially 2012 against all odds).

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Ok, so people are spinning this as a good result for Walker? Marquette has found better numbers for him then any other poll this cycle, and they only had Evers up once.

It's only a week left and the poll was taken during a particularly Dem-favouring news cycle.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Breakdown of the major groups:

Let's compare these to 2016, shall we?

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Trump won this group by a 23% margin last time.

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Clinton and Trump tied with this group.

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Trump won this demographic by 16%.

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Clinton won this group by 23%.

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Clinton won this group by 55%.

So, some good and some bad for each candidate.  Evers has cut into the white non-college men slightly and has made significant inroads with non-college women.  However, Walker has made dents of his own with college-educated white men and women, as well as with non-whites.

Yep, and with college educated being more likely to vote...easy win.