Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Think we'll see a huge Mollie Tibbets bounce for Trump over the next few weeks?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Good to see numbers before the inevitable  NAFTA bump coming up. The Midwest will revert to 2016 levels from that victory.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Suffolk:

40/56

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/08/29/poll-trump-should-agree-mueller-questions-after-michael-cohen-guilty-plea/1127837002/

I think Trump would need to be in the mid to upper 30's for the democrats to take the senate. So that's encouraging but not enough.

Yep, pitiful numbers for the Dems, but not a shocker really as DJT seems immune to any bad news outside of Russia/Healthcare.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1035544542064402434

Yep, I think the nation has hit Russia fatigue at this point. We're gonna need another Healthcare circus in Congress or a well-timed recession (preferably before Dems control any part of Congress) to sink him.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Maine (AARP Maine/only among 50+ year olds):

40% approval
53% disapproval

Very terrible numbers when you consider he only lost this state by a couple points, and this is a very Republican demographic.

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/09/05/survey-older-maine-voters-split-support-between-mills-moody-for-governor/

Great numbers considering Maine has had a rightward shift with older, union/logging/WWC types dying off and being replaced by Boston/NYC white flight.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Nah, Indiana went for Obama in his near-landslide win in 2008 with the positive effects of the larger Chicago area. With the entire region moving rightwards since then, I don't see Indiana being competitive for democrats in anything other than a true landslide.

Three possibilities:

1. Donald Trump is so awful that he can lose Indiana through his perception of corruption, despotic tendencies, and incompetence. That's one time or twice, with Republicans winning big in the state in 2022 as has been the norm in Indiana.

2. Rural dissent against Trump's tariffs and the likely trade wars that gut commodity prices, raise production costs of farming, and raise the overall cost of living? Tariffs are effectively sales taxes on imports, and they are bad taxes. This could be another way of looking at the first possibility. On the other side, most states cannot elect Republicans in statewide elections (and the vote for 'electors for the President" in almost all states is effectively a statewide election) without Republicans winning the farm-and-ranch vote. Indiana is as much in that category as Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio... not to mention Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

3. Suburbanites around Indianapolis are following a pattern emerging around cities such as Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta of trending D out of concern for the anti-intellectual tendencies of the GOP that goes far beyond consternation against wayward college professors and creative people to people whose jobs depend upon formal education beyond K-12. In this group are such people as teachers, accountants, engineers, and medical professionals -- groups that usually must be careful about political statements or usually think politics irrelevant to their jobs.

This would be big trouble for the GOP if a persistent and irreversible trend.

#2 and #3 literally cannot happen at the same time.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

Yep, the amount of celebrating this far out is hilarious. 2010 would have been seen as Obama being a one-termer with the Obamacare backlash and the Tea Party coming to the fore, but we all know what happened. Same with 1994. Geez, it's like people are forgetting the unique circumstances that sunk Carter and HW.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Morning Consult's 50-state Trump approval tracker, updated yesterday: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  Lots to see here, but the one state that jumps out at me is Wisconsin.  They now have Trump at 42/54, compared to 47/41 after he took office.

Still lagging similar states in the region. Minnesota is D+1 in PVI and Wisconsin is EVEN, thus they should only be a point to right...instead they are 6 points or so to the right of MN in approval.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Ohio: Baldwin Wallace, Sep. 5-15, 1048 likely voters

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

Quite a gender gap: M 47/48, F 39/55

Other results: Brown +17, DeWine +5, GCB D+3 (43/40)

DJT losing having a net negative with Ohio men? I somehow don't buy this.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I continue to find the inverse relationship between Trump approval and GCB fascinating.

The perception of him being safe encourages people to turn out to add a congressional check on him.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I continue to find the inverse relationship between Trump approval and GCB fascinating.

The perception of him being safe encourages people to turn out to add a congressional check on him.

That’s not a terrible theory, actually. Hadn’t thought of that. To be certain I think the truth of his approval lies somewhere between Pew and Gallup.

It seems backwards to me.  Wouldn't people who thought Trump was doing an OK job be less motivated to put a check on him than those who thought he was doing a terrible job?

I agree that the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.  It usually is.

It's more of the "we like him...as long as he's gonna be restrained"...like a cute baby on a plane. They are voting for the pacifier.  

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1090242685129183235

Generic Not-Trump numbers =/= actual Dem challenger numbers. C'mon, let's not be dense here.