Are dems punching above weight in Iowa? (user search)
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  Are dems punching above weight in Iowa? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Are dems punching above weight in Iowa?  (Read 1701 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,333


« on: August 28, 2023, 05:47:52 PM »

Admittedly it's a statistical tie with the margin of error and all that and that the DRA numbers are actually kind of funky to begin with but notable that Trump possibly did better amongst white voters in Virginia than in West Virginia.

EDIT: But per the exit poll Trump won 54% of white voters in Virginia. I just think the DRA numbers are real off.

DRA numbers for the state as a whole are probably more accurate than exit polls, since data smudging and the absentee ballot vagueness of VA disappear in the aggregate.
I'm not seeing how it's mathematically possible Biden did only 4 points better amongst whites in Virginia than he did in Tennessee.

The precincts where Biden wins a higher percentage of whites aren't 90% white.

Virginia being 60% white vs Iowa's 86% is significant.

Right. In Iowa there are lots of urban precincts that are 90% white. In Virginia there are no 90% white precincts that are urban, even in relatively segregated "old Southern" cities like Norfolk, Richmond or Roanoke. So looking at 90% white precincts in Virginia means sampling exclusively white people in rural areas in contrast to a much more (though not entirely) representative sample of white people in Iowa. Same goes for Tennessee as well, to a lesser degree.
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