Turkey elections 2023 (user search)
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Author Topic: Turkey elections 2023  (Read 34092 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,336


« on: May 01, 2023, 09:26:27 AM »

I guess in order for the math to work out, Kilicdaroglu would have to win (much) more than 54% of the vote in Istanbul? Or maybe I'm thinking too much in US categories, where Democrats have to run up the scores in big cities.

Istanbul is not that favorable to the opposition, primarily because of the large number of migrants from interior Anatolia there. In previous Erdogan elections, it has voted for him each time, while the opposition wins other areas in the west of Turkey. 54% of the vote for Kilicdaroglu in Istanbul (i.e., winning by 8% if every other vote went to Erdogan, but actually more like 12% since some votes will go to the minor candidates) is a narrow lead for Kilicdaroglu nationally on a uniform swing from the 2018 presidential election, when Erdogan won by 22% nationwide and by 13% in Istanbul.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,336


« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2023, 03:26:37 PM »

Any guesses on how religious (I.e. weekly-church attending) Christians voted?

Turkey is only 0.2% Christian. Mods, are we allowed to say why? I don't want to get any possible Turkish members in trouble or get TalkElections blocked in Turkey.

Genocides, obviously, along with some population transfers and ethnic cleansings.

But that doesn’t answer my question.

The two largest groups are Oriental Orthodox Christians (mostly ethnic Armenians or Assyrians) and Turkish Orthodox Christians (all ethnic Turks). I have to imagine the Armenians and Assyrians are staunchly pro-opposition. The Turkish Orthodox Church is notoriously nationalistic (in part as a self-defense mechanism) and probably votes for the MHP. There are also a significant number of Catholics (a mix of various Eastern rites, some Levantines especially in Hatay and some converts), who like the Oriental Orthodox probably vote predominantly for the opposition. The number of Greek Orthodox is quite small (fewer than Protestants) but presumably also solidly pro-opposition. Converts to non-local Christian denominations, including Protestantism, Jehovah's Witnesses and Mormonism, are probably also strongly pro-opposition.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,336


« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2023, 08:21:45 AM »



In which an ex-Brussels regional MP becomes an Erddogan minister.



She was a member of a christian democratic party in Belgium....

...and was expelled in 2015 for Armenian Genocide denial

By then the francophone christian democrats were an amalgamation of several religious and civil society interest groups and even changed their name to centre démocate Humaniste.

However once Benoit Lutgen took over from Joelle Milquet who was the architect of inviting the islamic democrats into the party, he did not like these types and even asked this Erdoganist in question not to show up at his opening press conference due to her hijab (allegedly).


In which an ex-Brussels regional MP becomes an Erddogan minister.



She was a member of a christian democratic party in Belgium...

...and was expelled in 2015 for Armenian Genocide denial

It's concerning how the overseas diaspora has become politicized. The US and Canada seem to have handled this issue better, possibly due to differences in their immigrants' demographics and financial backgrounds compared to those in Europe.

It also has to do with the fact that European countries let state actors like Turkey and Morrocco maintain influence with their diaspora, intimidating them into following the groupthink, running their own state run mosques that promulagate the propaganda of the incumbent, etc. And European internal intelligence services would rather have a good relationship with Morroccan and Turkish intelligence than crack down on this practice and protect what are now 3rd generation immigrants who are our citizens! This ofc happens too with e.g. the Chinese but they are not as large a minority or as vocally controversial.

I wouldn't be surprised if this person, just like the mayor of Saint-Joss, is a spy herself though.


If Germany had sensible immigration laws (including birthright citizenship), there wouldn't be any "third-generation Turkish immigrants" voting in Turkish elections. They would have assimilated into German society and not be Turkish citizens.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,336


« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2023, 09:01:07 AM »


If Germany had sensible immigration laws (including birthright citizenship), there wouldn't be any "third-generation Turkish immigrants" voting in Turkish elections. They would have assimilated into German society and not be Turkish citizens.

Turkey gives citizenship to anyone born to a Turkish parent (or parents) abroad regardless of the other nationalities the person might acquire at birth, so it doesn't matter if they have German citizenship or not as long as their parents haven't actively renounced their Turkish citizenship.



Adults with German citizenship would be uninterested in retaining Turkish citizenship. We know this because the exact same thing happens in pretty much every country with birthright citizenship, often at second generation and inevitably by third generation. You have to be a citizen of somewhere, so if where you were born and live your entire life rejects you as a citizen, you'll of course stick with the citizenship of the country that gives you citizenship and all of the baggage that entails.
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