Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[Tintrlvr]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

I think it's only early votes, though, so the margin might go down.

On a universal swing from 2020 Presidential of course that margin would easily be enough (we'd be looking at a landslide; it would be a 39-61 win for No), but in addition to early votes reporting first and likely being more left-leaning, I'd expect a bigger swing compared to the the Presidential race in urban counties and a smaller one in rural counties given where Republicans who support the legality of abortion are likely to live.

[Tintrlvr]

Early results from Riley (Manhattan) and Wyandotte (KC) are in too. Riley shows basically the same swing as Shawnee (Topeka), Wyandotte much less of a swing but still sizeable and enough for a solid No win on a universal swing. Neither is terribly surprising but also subject to the same caveats as above, in particular about the early vote and to a lesser extent on rural vs. urban swings (although Wyandotte, being a more downmarket urban county, should probably swing more like a rural county than urban counties with more well off Republicans like Shawnee and Riley).

[Tintrlvr]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

I'll take 50.1% No. Even that would be seen in the media as a devastating rejection of Dobbs regardless of how grounded in history that interpretation would be.

[Tintrlvr]

Everyone keep in mind that if this is all EV, it could still get very close.  Remember the Oklahoma Medicaid Expansion referendum?

But there's also nothing in from Johnson, Douglas, or Sedgwick, which No should do pretty good in.

Douglas is reporting, 88% No.

[Tintrlvr]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

I'll take 50.1% No. Even that would be seen in the media as a devastating rejection of Dobbs regardless of how grounded in history that interpretation would be.

IDK Kansas has always been considerably less pro-life than top line Republican, so it isn't the best example.  A devastating rejection of Dobbs would be if Kentucky rejects its abortion amendment in November.  However, it would still be significant for the Kansas pro-life referendum to underperform Trump that badly.

I agree with you again from a political wonk perspective, but not from a media narrative perspective, which is more important.

[Tintrlvr]

Ellis County (Hays) is the first county to finish reporting. Hays is a very small city in rural west Kansas, definitely should vote more like rural counties than urban counties but not completely rural. It does have a small state college that shouldn't matter very much to the result overall. Anyway, it was 70-27 Trump in 2020, and the final result tonight is 56-44 Yes, i.e., a swing of 15.5 points. That would portend about a 40-60 victory for No statewide on a universal swing. This seems over now, only question is how large the margin for No ends up being.

[Tintrlvr]

Another county is done now, too: Chase County. Chase County is a very rural county near Emporia; the towns in it are too small to merit mention. It was 75-23 Trump in 2020, but only 52-48 Yes. That swing needless to say would mean a landslide victory for No statewide if repeated overall. I assume it will be an outlier in swinging towards No, which is somewhat surprising for such a rural county, but I suppose counties with very few voters are more likely to behave randomly.

[Tintrlvr]

Anderson County also done. 77-21 Trump, 59-41 Yes. In line with Ellis, not quite as bad for Yes as Chase, but still clearly in line with a strong No victory.