One interesting observation is Madawaska area of New Brunswick. It seems like Canadian and American sides which are closely connected and many have family on both sides moving in opposite directions. A decade ago, Tories held Madawaska County both federally and provincially, while now getting clobbered at both levels. By contrast on US side, Obama was winning this area by massive margins, around 2/3 of vote. On other hand Trump both times either won many communities on American side or came very close. Any reason why they are going in exact opposite direction as while US different country it seems most border states following similar trends to Canadian counterparts?
Would it not be because of the unique identity - that area is 90% Francophone I believe and the same applies across the rest of Francophone New Brunswick. Whereas that part of Maine is just a more Conservative part of rural New England. Whereas the equivalent conservative (small c) part of New Brunswick is the area covered by Tobique Mactaquac.
There are a significant number of Francophones in Aroostook County, Maine, too, though a lot fewer than in Madawaska of course. I think around 20%. The really Francophone parts of Aroostook County, such as Fort Kent (63% speak French at home) and Van Buren (77% speak French at home), are still Democratic, though much less so than 10 years ago. It's more places like Caribou and Presque Isle, where the Francophone population is much smaller, that are solidly Republican now.
