GA-ACE polling- Perdue and loeffler +4 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 23, 2024, 04:08:26 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  GA-ACE polling- Perdue and loeffler +4 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: GA-ACE polling- Perdue and loeffler +4  (Read 1838 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,333


« on: December 29, 2020, 12:08:37 PM »

"We further attempted to experiment with novel weights not used by other pollsters, such as weighing on social trust, socioeconomic attitudes, and religious attitudes as measured by the General Social Survey, correcting for polling's tendency to oversample atheists and people with high social trust. We also weighed by Facebook usage, correcting for polls tending to oversample online voters."


Not sure if this is genius or stupid. We'll see come January

They might be right that polls are incorrectly oversampling such voters (I have never seen a regular political poll even break down religious affiliation to the point of identifying atheists, who are too small a group to make any real difference anyway, but "high social trust" definitely seems relevant), but those topics are just too nebulous to establish meaningful weights for. You can't definitively assert that 38% of voters, or 21% of voters, or 83% of voters, will be "high social trust" voters in the way that you can talk about race or gender or education in relatively definite terms. We know with pretty good certainty what the actual demographics of the population are independent of polling and can make reasonable assumptions about turnout, but we don't actually know how many people, or how many voters, are "high social trust".
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.018 seconds with 11 queries.