2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Tintrlvr]

Ok, here is my take on how a "fair map" could look like, trying to keep districts relatively compact and what not

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed1513f0-516d-45b7-885c-03508eed97a8

And for an image and summary (the labels are the ones in the image):



NJ-01: D+12
NJ-02: D+1
NJ-03: R+3
NJ-04: R+6
NJ-05: R+8
NJ-06: D+13 (49.5% white; 22.2% hispanic, 16.7% black; 12.4% asian)
NJ-07: D+7
NJ-08: D+21 (40.2% hispanic; 37.5% white, 16% asian)
NJ-09: D+4
NJ-10: D+35 (50.2% black; 25.8% white, 18.1% hispanic, 6.5% asian)
NJ-11: D+7
NJ-12: D+6

So basically it seems like there would be 2 Safe R districts, 7 Safe D districts and 3 swing districts of some sort? (though NJ-09 should be close to safe I assume?).

I imagine in a good year for Republicans they would get an 8-4 map and in a bad year they would get a 10-2 map; which is one seat more than they currently hold.

This map also creates a plurality Hispanic district, though I don't know if a hispanic candidate would win there or if a white one would. There is a third majority minority district but it is only borderline majority minority and with the minorities split so it does not really count.

I know it's the current map, but combining Ocean and Burlington (other than maybe rural southern Burlington only with Ocean, but the southern third of Burlington has a total population of only a few thousand) is fundamentally a really bad map. Look at them on a map: the area on the border is completely empty, and the orientations are all north-south with no major east-west connections. Ocean should go with Monmouth, and Burlington with Camden/Mercer. That probably still leaves another Republican-leaning district in the Monmouth-Middlesex area.

[Tintrlvr]

Ok, here is my take on how a "fair map" could look like, trying to keep districts relatively compact and what not

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed1513f0-516d-45b7-885c-03508eed97a8

And for an image and summary (the labels are the ones in the image):



NJ-01: D+12
NJ-02: D+1
NJ-03: R+3
NJ-04: R+6
NJ-05: R+8
NJ-06: D+13 (49.5% white; 22.2% hispanic, 16.7% black; 12.4% asian)
NJ-07: D+7
NJ-08: D+21 (40.2% hispanic; 37.5% white, 16% asian)
NJ-09: D+4
NJ-10: D+35 (50.2% black; 25.8% white, 18.1% hispanic, 6.5% asian)
NJ-11: D+7
NJ-12: D+6

So basically it seems like there would be 2 Safe R districts, 7 Safe D districts and 3 swing districts of some sort? (though NJ-09 should be close to safe I assume?).

I imagine in a good year for Republicans they would get an 8-4 map and in a bad year they would get a 10-2 map; which is one seat more than they currently hold.

This map also creates a plurality Hispanic district, though I don't know if a hispanic candidate would win there or if a white one would. There is a third majority minority district but it is only borderline majority minority and with the minorities split so it does not really count.

I know it's the current map, but combining Ocean and Burlington (other than maybe rural southern Burlington only with Ocean, but the southern third of Burlington has a total population of only a few thousand) is fundamentally a really bad map. Look at them on a map: the area on the border is completely empty, and the orientations are all north-south with no major east-west connections. Ocean should go with Monmouth, and Burlington with Camden/Mercer. That probably still leaves another Republican-leaning district in the Monmouth-Middlesex area.

It's largely an academic exercise, because it isn't in either party's interest to propose it, but interestingly if you draw a fair NJ-1 and NJ-2 then the remainder of Burlington and Mercer are almost exactly the right size for a congressional district.

Paying no attention to partisan data, trying to draw compact districts and minimise the number of split counties (whilst still complying with the VRA for NJ-8 and NJ-10), I came up with this: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::53d12243-77a7-4019-a338-6469ef785796

I haven't checked the 2016 results for those lines, but it looks like it would shake out by now as two safe Republican district (4 and 7), two swing seats (2 and 6) and the rest in the Democratic column, to varying levels of safety. In particular, I'm quite keen on the way NJ-11 shapes out in this map as a reasonably compact Newark suburbs district.

Your map isn't opening for me, but I've noticed this too and agree. I created the map below, which is overall intended as a fair map though also leans D overall but isn't the type of map the Democrats would propose because, as you note, it's not in the interests of current incumbents.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/83ae6b67-d3ed-4561-ba4e-a7f13bd9ff08

[Tintrlvr]

There's a showdown in the NJ State Supreme Court over who will be the tiebreaker.  Wallace is the D and Corodemus is the R more or less.   The "tiebreaker" in the NJ commission is basically a dictator for NJ redistricting.  All 7 members of the State Supreme Court must vote one or the other, no abstentions.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/n-j-supreme-court-will-pick-tiebreaker-on-congressional-redistricting/

For what it's worth, the NJ Supreme Court is 4R-3D by appointments, although it's generally a quite apolitical institution and one of the R appointees was appointed by Whitman (no longer a Republican), was reappointed later by Corzine, is a registered Independent and is retiring next month so certainly has a good chance of siding with the Democrats.

[Tintrlvr]

How many people live in the purple bit of western Monmouth County? I would give that to the Ocean County district and rotate all the other south Jersey districts to compensate. That would make NJ-2 more Republican by bringing some of the Gloucester County suburbs into the Camden district. I don’t think it’s an issue to split southern Ocean County.

Personally I think this is a bad decision. The area between Ocean and Atlantic Counties is quite barren and empty and forms a natural geographic barrier that ideally should not be crossed (thus so few people living in that southern part of Burlington County). However, the western edge of Monmouth County is very separate from the rest of Monmouth County and more oriented towards Trenton than the beach, so is a very good place to split Monmouth. In other words, you're exchanging a good split for a bad one.

[Tintrlvr]

Boom!

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1423753995403804680?s=20

Interestingly this happened even though one of the Democrats recused herself (because she was once a clerk for Wallace), so at least one Republican must have voted for Wallace as well. (The NJ Supreme Court is split 3D-3R-1I.)

Wallace has very strong ties to the South Jersey Democratic machine so do expect there to be focus on ensuring at least two districts for the Democrats in South Jersey.

[Tintrlvr]

I tried my hand at a fair 12-district map of New Jersey.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.07%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

85/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
75/100 on the Compactness Index
37/100 on County Splitting
51/100 on the Minority Representation index (everywhere's super mixed)
31/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2012/2016 Presidential Cook Partisan Voting Index.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in New Jersey: 7D to 5R

2017 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election: 8D to 4R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in New Jersey: 7D to 5R


Opinions?

While it exists currently, the Burlington-Ocean district is crap and would never be drawn on a good government map of New Jersey. The border between the two counties is almost completely unpopulated, definitely the emptiest part of New Jersey, and Burlington very clearly faces southwest towards Philly and northwest towards Trenton, while Ocean is entirely oriented to the shore. Also, there's no highway connection at all between the two counties (leaving aside the tiny shore-oriented bit of Burlington at the southern end, which could be hived off without issue); closest you come is NJ-70, which is just a regular two-lane road.

Much better to keep that border intact and push the Monmouth district into Middlesex instead, with Mercer turning south into Burlington instead of north into Middlesex.

[Tintrlvr]

Might there be merit to going for a 10-2/9-2-1 by cutting Malinowski but giving Van Drew a Biden district, at least? It's fairly easy to make a good sink in the Northwest which shores up everyone else in the north, but a South Jersey sink is not as effective because it is going to have Atlantic City. The obvious answer, it seems to me, is to crack rather than pack, but I confess I don't know much about New Jersey redistricting, so it might be infeasible.

A south Jersey Dem district is possible but it won't be anything more than like D+3 or so, unless you really hack up the Camden district and shift it northwards, which might be possible. Even then, there's no way to draw a south jersey Dem +10 or whatever district without giving Norcross significantly more republican territory.



Something like this could work in South Jersey. NJ-1 goes from a roughly 60-40 to a 58-42 seat. NJ-2 goes from a Trump-Trump seat to one Clinton won 52-44. NJ-3 is shored up for Kim, making it a 55-40 Dem seat as well as making it an Asian opportunity district. NJ-4 is of course made to be even more of a pack.

NJ-2, however, still might not be Dem enough to survive a bad midterm in 2022, and will probably be out of reach for Dems for the time being by the end of the decade.

If you really want to get rid of Van Drew, you'll have to put Cape May County in a Republican sink; otherwise he'll just come over the top there and win. Of course, getting Cape May County out without losing Atlantic City is an added challenge that is going to require water connectivity.

[Tintrlvr]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

[Tintrlvr]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

The idea is that as long as Kim lives in the district he’ll be happy to get a Biden +35 district instead of a Trump district. Any 2022 configuration that guarantees Kim safety will have to include Mercer, it’s just how much of Ocean to include.

But you left him with no district at all. Norcross is in the Camden district and Watson Coleman is in the Trenton district.

Before 2018, the Dems had only the Camden seat for a long time, so it’s not ancestral. I think it could be decently likely that whatever they draw backfires in South Jersey, if Mercer isn’t included.

From a fairness perspective, perhaps, but the Democrats aren't going to accept eliminating Andy Kim and Tom Malinowski.

[Tintrlvr]

Since there's no road connectivity between the two halves of NJ-02 on your map, you might as well drop the pretense of any connectivity other than water connectivity around Atlantic City. That might be able to get you another point in NJ-12.

There are also some Democratic precincts left in NJ-4 that could be freed into NJ-12.

Overall very creative map, though. Never seen Chris Smith pushed northward instead of eastward. Realistically the Democrats would probably just screw him and put him in NJ-12, though, which makes their whole task much easier.

[Tintrlvr]

If Dems had any brains, Gottheimer is the North Jersey incumbent they should dump. He's been nothing but trouble for the party.

The positioning of his district makes that harder to do.

It would be very easy to put Wyckoff, Gottheimer’s hometown in a red district by combining it with Sussex, Warren, western Passaic, etc. Whether he’d just carpetbag to a safer district is a different question.

What I hope will happen is they include his home in a Kean sink to make all the other North Jersey seats Titanium D, and then he carpetbags and loses his primary to an actual Democrat, but unfortunately this has a very small chance of coming to pass.

To produce such a district would require very odd lines to both be a sink and have Westfield and Wyckoff in it. I think Gottheimer would run in any Bergen-based seat, even if it didn't include his home, and he would be favored to win the primary. As far as I can tell he seems like a good fit for his district, being an anti-tax moderate Dem, which very much exemplifies suburban Jersey. His primary opponent would likely be Pascrell, who just seems too old to defeat Gottheimer.

Pascrell's home territory is also in Passaic County, and he'll run in whichever district Paterson ends up, so it's very unlikely a map would be able to draw Pascrell and Gottheimer into the same seat while not drawing a Bergen-centric district Gottheimer could run in regardless of where Wyckoff itself was placed.

[Tintrlvr]

Decided to try my hand at a fair map - this is what I came up with. Focus was initially on compactness, then CoIs, so there ended up not being a black majority district or a 40%+ Hispanic district (the Paterson district is 39%), but with 4 majority-minority districts, and 6 at 45%+ minority. Even though I didn't draw this with incumbents in mind, the new 5th ends up being a perfect fit for Gottheimer, which I'm sure Democrats here will love.

2020 results and incumbent:

NJ-01: Biden +57, Payne
NJ-02: Biden +52, Sires
NJ-03: Biden +36, Sherill (Kean gets screwed here)
NJ-04: Biden +24, Pascrell
NJ-05: Biden +5, Gottheimer
NJ-06: Trump +5, nobody
NJ-07: Biden +34, Malinowski
NJ-08: Biden +22, Watson Coleman and Smith (Smith prob runs in the 10th)
NJ-09: Biden +26, Norcross
NJ-10: Trump+9, Pallone (he gets screwed)
NJ-11: Trump+5, Kim (tough but winnable)
NJ-12: Trump +1, Van Drew

Should balance out to 8-3-1 on average; 12-0 is theoretically possible but unlikely even in a blue wave, 7-5 possible in a red wave.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/21f9458f-90b7-4082-9352-df616e66a959

With VRA in mind, I did another version where I tried my best to create an Asian opportunity district - the 7th, which ended up being 30% Asian. I also redid the Newark district to take out Elizabeth and add the Oranges to make it 48% black, which I think makes more sense from a CoI standpoint.

As I've said many times before, the Burlington-Ocean connection is not "fair" in any sense of the word. You could do it two both reasonable other ways: drop Gloucester from the southern district and do Atlantic-Ocean, or put Burlington with Trenton and then Monmouth with eastern Middlesex (I think that's probably the better option). But no fair map would have a Burlington-Ocean link; the two counties have no connections at all despite their long border, and the border area is completely unpopulated wilderness at the heart of the Pine Barrens.