2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Tintrlvr]

Aside from the obvious rule that states that each state must have the number of congressional districts laid down by the rules, is there a rule stating that each district must have a minimum electorate / population?

Districts must have the exact same population, or as close to exact as possible. This is accomplished by getting as close as possible to +1/-1/0 as you can with precincts, and then cutting precincts to achieve this outcome. This is all basic stuff in US Redistricting.

Now at the state level, there can be different provisions. Sometimes districts are allowed larger divergence in Pop, usually a +/-5%. This is often accompanied by a provision for county nesting, keeping NE towns intact, or something of that nature. This provision about exact population is why everyone fusses about COIs, since if this was Westminster style Redistricting, COIs would take the forefront and population equity gets sidelined.

It's not the case that federal districts have to have exactly the same population; the courts have stated that de minimis deviation (definitely deviations of less than 0.1%, and possibly deviations going up as high as 1-2% as the jurisprudence has not set a precise threshold) are acceptable as long as they serve some other purpose, like minimizing county or town splits or just for the sake of not splitting precincts. Some states have provisions that require even more equality than the federal courts have done under OMOV, and many legislatures and redistricting committees do go for exact equality, but it's not required.

[Tintrlvr]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

Incidentally, Bucks + Cheltenham, Abington, Lower Moreland, Bryn Athyn, Rockledge and Jenkintown from Montgomery is exactly one district, and probably enough to be unwinnable for even Fitzpatrick (Clinton+7). The Democrats should push for this.

[Tintrlvr]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

Incidentally, Bucks + Cheltenham, Abington, Lower Moreland, Bryn Athyn, Rockledge and Jenkintown from Montgomery is exactly one district, and probably enough to be unwinnable for even Fitzpatrick (Clinton+7). The Democrats should push for this.

Fitzpatrick outran Trump by 19 points. He genuinely has one of the strongest local brands of any member of Congress. He could survive a in district that went for Clinton/Biden by high single digits.

This is hugely misleading; the Democrats ran a terrible candidate. Yes, Fitzpatrick routinely outruns national Republicans. But he absolutely could not win a Biden+12-ish district against a competent candidate (which is what a Clinton+7 district in that area would be), especially with a bunch of new and hostile (without looking it up, Cheltenham was something like Clinton+75) territory in the seat.