2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Tintrlvr]

If you do that I think you should work to put LaPlace in the NOLA district to keep its black percentage up to help justify the racial split. Although that would probably make the map messier elsewhere (fitting one district perfectly north of the Shreveport-Baton Rouge district is nice), so might not be a worthwhile tradeoff.

[Tintrlvr]

Republicans are once again banking on Kavanaugh declaring "Racism is Over in America!" to save their map.

It ain't happening.

This is literally what happened in Alabama.  Despite every court telling them they needed to remap, the Alabama GOP huffed the copium. They said "Kav said he may be open to ruling against Sec 2 in the future, so this is really a 4.5 affirmative ruling, and let's just send that argument to him 2 months after we lost." And of course the court rejected them completely, not just on the merits but arguably cause this court likes finality of cases. It should be clear reading Kavanaughs opinion that what he meant was if given time the electoral situation improves in the South, like it has elsewhere, and minorities don't need access seats to get elected, then obviously Section 2 would have done it's job and is no longer needed.  But every state GOP sees that as their one out in Milligan,  so they are gonna keep huffing the copium, and keep falling on their face.

This is misunderstanding what happened in Alabama. The state legislature just didn't want to be the ones responsible for ending a Republican Congressperson's career (and for choosing which one it would be). The same thing is probably playing out in Louisiana - especially because one of the real possibilities for getting the axe is the Speaker of the House.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1755725527229305028?t=rfqvpv2ACHkGCNkrn...

Several things:

This is separate from the congressional suit in it's entirely.

The plaintiffs alledged that an appropriate 1/3 of seats should be majority minority.
 
This will likely be fought much harder than the congressional plans, given whose jobs are at stake, and this is only the first court decision on the issue.

In the context of a safe state, the veto override threshold is likely all that matters.  Wouldn't making exactly 1/3 of the seats as ironclad Dem as possible be optimal for GOP policy goals in the long run?  Unless there are other state constitutional restrictions that would prevent them from distributing R voters evenly between the other 2/3rds of the seats?

Well right now they have the threshold and are not likely want to lose it. And complying will likely mean losing it in at least the state House, since you cannot fully deny the White NOLA libs at least one seat there.

That was my thought, too: 1/3 of seats as black-opportunity means at minimum 1/3 + 1 Democratic seats as it’s not possible to draw no white Democratic seats in NOLA.