Clinton-Trump Counties?

[Tintrlvr]

Tiny counties where movement can be totally random (and has been in the past) and that were close in 2016:

Kenedy County, TX

Rural, racially mixed counties in the Deep South that were very marginal in 2016:

Pike County, MS
Washington County, GA
Dillon County, SC
Pasquotank County, NC

Marginal small-town counties (but not counties with cities of any real size) in the Midwest:

Carlton County, MN
Jackson County, IL

Mormons:

Salt Lake County, UT

Confusing 2016 trends that may continue:

Lake County, CA

That's all I have. I would guess around 1-3 of the above will vote for Trump in 2020 in what I expect to be a solid victory for the Democratic nominee overall. Probably it would happen in groups (e.g., it might be that three of the mixed Southern counties flip the other way, or two of the rural Midwestern counties).

[Tintrlvr]

Yesterdays thread of the wise and Noble RRH posters believed the strongly Republican Fort Bend county will flip R. Abbots incredible victory of 0.2 over strong candidate Lupe Valdez shows why Warren will lose it.

Ha. Far more likely that Fort Bend County will be more Democratic than Harris County in 2020.

[Tintrlvr]

Confusing 2016 trends that may continue:

Lake County, CA

Always kind of wondered what was up there

I wish I had a good answer. Trends were towards Trump all along the remote northern California coastal areas, but not nearly to the extent of Lake, and unlike some of the other counties, Stein didn't do exceptionally well there (3.77% is nothing to sneeze at for a Green, but it's a lot less than 5.56% in Mendocino or 6.13% in Humboldt). I do think the resort/retirement parts of Lake are somewhat less upmarket than in Mendocino and Humboldt (a lake isn't as prestigious as the ocean, I suppose), and there are more retirees and other assorted relocatees from the Sacramento area in Lake, but that doesn't really explain things, either, since Sacramento also moved hard to Clinton. Lake also has some flatland farming around Kelseyville, but the farm areas in northern California otherwise didn't move sharply towards Trump.

I would expect there to be a significant snap back to the Democrats there on the basis of climate policy in 2020, though. Forest fires have spooked the whole region.