ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[Tintrlvr]

The reason why xfutures is so optimistic on KMT Han's chances are that given Han told his supporters to support Tsai when called by a pollster which basically blinds everyone in the race alternative sources of data seems to indicate surprising Han strength.

One such factor are various illegal betting bookmakers seems to put the break even odds between DPP Tsai and KMT Han from anywhere from neck-to-neck to something like a 3% lead for DPP Tsai.  Also two (pro-Han) Youtubers have being going around Taiwan Province doing impromptu face to face polls at areas if high concentration of people (open markets, train stations etc etc)

One of them (桃園孫先生) (Mr Sun of  Taoyuan) goes all over Taiwan Province pretty every day since July 2019 doing polls
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0mVh9cQGuHDE4KpBLWFSew/videos
 
The other (北青) (Northern Youth) seems to focus on Northern Taiwan Province cities
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOUlZisIcNpjD9XA7uV6_TA/videos

The results seems similar for both in the aggregate which seems to imply it is something like KMT Han 52 DPP Tsai 43 PFP Soong 5.  Clears these polls are not weighted by demographics but does show DPP Tsai strength in the Youth and urban Northern areas and surprising strength for KMT Han  in Southern rural areas.  Other then that I would not take the aggregate results that seriously but xfutures betters are.

One thing I did get out of watching these video clips of their impromptu clips are that KMT Han supporters are pretty committed and indicated their support for Han ASAP.  DPP Tsai backers seems to hesitate more and most likely doing a lesser of two evil calculations in their mind went with DPP Tsai.  This seems correlated to the observation that KMT Han rallies are well attended but DPP Tsai rallies seems much sparser.  Of course this does not mean KMT Han would win as in 1972 McGovern rallies were huge but were crushed on election day.   What important about this is it gives a clue who higher turnout will benefit. In 2016 the Pan-Blue turnout collapsed leading to a DPP landslide. The assumption made by everyone is that higher turnout in 2020 would help KMT Han.  Bases on these observations it seems the KMT Han supporters are fairly committed while many DPP Tsai supporters are marginal which means high turnout in 2020 tends to help DPP Tsai.        

Perhaps one would expect hesitation in admitting support for one candidate when a voter is approach by a "pollster" who is clearly a partisan supporter of another, diametrically opposed candidate.

[Tintrlvr]

The DPP won a highland aborigine seat. Is that the first time they've done so? I think it might be.

Totally deserved defeat for the Beijing Appeasement Party.

[Tintrlvr]

Also they way DPP Tsai ran this campaign also contains dangers for it.  The DPP rallying cry was literally "A vote for KMT Han is a vote for unification with PRC."  

OK.  But KMT Han did win 38.6% of the vote.  So if we just take the DPP word for it the support for unification with PRC stands at 38.6%.  So imagine if during the US revolutionary war, England was 90 miles away from the Colonies and much bigger physically with large amount of resources as well as population AND 38.6% of the Colonies are FOR staying united with England.  How do you think the war will go ?  It seems if DPP believes in their own propaganda they should quickly move to mollify the KMT Han vote unless they want 38.6% of the population to be ready made Quislings

38.6% supporting unification through an electoral process does not mean 38.6% supporting unification in the context of a war or invasion.