Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[Tintrlvr]

I am hopeful we'll get a few polls next week, although I'm not positive they'll be early state polls.

Apparently the Des Moines Register is having financial issues right now, so them paying Selzer for a poll seems unlikely. The other major pollsters are probably still hoping to get more national numbers to check public opinion on impeachment. Maybe CBS will get YouGov to poll Iowa?

I dont envy the Yang Gang right now, although its alittle early to be jumping in the conspiracy theory pool, especially when Yang is only polling at 4% nationally on a good day.

It would be shocking if we didn’t get another Selzer poll before the caucus. Maybe not until after the qualification deadline for the debate, though.

[Tintrlvr]

Seems like Bloomberg is happy to avoid the debates, even while blaming Democratic rules for him missing out:

Bloomberg insisted he’d like to debate if the rules allowed. But the billionaire, a latecomer to the Democratic primary, reasoned it is inappropriate for someone of his wealth to ask supporters for cash...

...Bloomberg has always self-funded his campaigns for the same reasons he laid out Tuesday. In this case, the strategy comes with an additional benefit: inoculating him from televised attacks from opponents and risking a rhetorical misstep.

I agree, and I think he's right strategically. Steyer has been a total non-entity in the debates and is probably hurt by going to them because he's just not very telegenic live. But clearly spending hundreds of millions on ads can buy you just as good and more controlled name recognition than debates do, explaining why Steyer is polling so well in SC and NV.

[Tintrlvr]

Quinnipiac has given Bloomberg his second qualifying poll for the Nevada debate.  He still needs two more in order to get in, and he needs them by next week Tuesday.

Seems like he will make it as long as there are two more national qualifying polls before then, which seems likely as pollsters will want to assess the post-NH state of the race. Real question is whether Steyer makes it, or, rather, will there be two qualifying South Carolina polls by next Tuesday

Q-Pac was also a qualifying poll for Buttigieg, though he doesn't need it at this point.

[Tintrlvr]

Frankly, being off the debate stage might be a good thing for Mike. With the exception of Harris's short lived boom in the summer, no one has really gained a ton nationally from the debates. He has unlimited resources to tell people who he is and why he's running and can do that without the pushback from other candidates. If he gets on stage and exposes himself to smears from Sanders, etc, I might drag him down.

Completely agree, which is also I think why Bloomberg never objected to the fact that donations were used as debate qualifiers before. He'd rather not be at any debates.