Redistricting victims next cycle. (user search)
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  Redistricting victims next cycle. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Redistricting victims next cycle.  (Read 10823 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,351


« on: October 19, 2018, 10:18:23 AM »

Republicans left TN-05 as a Nashville seat because their incumbents did not want to deal with seats that were less heavy Republican. I do not see how this would change after 2020.

More time has passed since the Democrats were competitive in rural middle Tennessee, so I could see the calculus changing for the Republicans. But I agree that it is more likely the Republicans will leave it as a Likely D seat.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,351


« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2018, 11:16:09 AM »

Interestingly, adding seats could kill incumbents as well. Oregon gaining a 6th seat means the 4th will be pulled south towards Ashland/Grants Pass/Medford, giving up some of Albany/Eugene/Springfield. This could spell the end for DeFazio (good riddance, though he does seem to overperform PVI) as a new purplish Albany/Corvallis/Salem seat is formed, as Schrader's district becomes bluer, pulling north into Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The only way to mitigate this would be with a crazy gerrymander giving Blumenauer part of Eastern Oregon, giving Walden Roseburg, and pushing DeFazio up towards Marion and Polk counties as Schrader, Bonamici, and a new district cut up the state from Salem north.



Not going to happen. DeFazio lives in Lane County (I think in Eugene proper), so any district including Eugene is his district. And no district including Eugene is voting Republican.

It's also honestly much more reasonable to cross the Cascades at Hood River than the way the map currently works, since there's an Interstate along the Columbia River but only winding state highways that close in winter in the southern part of the state.
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