State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Tintrlvr]

Why are they all retiring? Did the special elections scare them that much? I mean, the special elections were fairly good for dems margin-wise and suggest dems take the senate, but they weren't like terrifying wave territory.

They do only hold the majority by one seat thanks to Simcha Felder, so it's not unreasonable at all to assume they will lose the Senate even if they perform above the national environment. Democrats are practically assured to dismantle the gerrymandered map if they control the chamber for the next round of redistricting, so I guess they're deciding to jump ship before it fully sinks.

I believe the non-partisan redistricting law New York passed before the last redistricting also kicks in for the state legislature in the 2020 redistricting (they delayed the state legislature until 2020 last time as a compromise), so the gerrymander is dead regardless, which means the New York State Senate Republican majority is doomed in the near future anyway.

[Tintrlvr]

Yeah, I don't think it's a good idea. Felder is a joke of a Democrat, but he would easily win reelection as an independent or Republican, and the Democrats would be better off not totally antagonizing the ultra-Orthodox Jews so that they still swing as a block to Democratic candidates in statewide and other races sometimes.

[Tintrlvr]

Candidate
Votes
Percent
Caleb Frostman
11,545
52%
Andre Jacque
10,540
48%
Precincts Reporting: 71 of 93
Percent Reporting: 76%

All depends on Outagamie county. Clinton only lost it 40-54 in SD-01. Frostman needs to do well (break even) to keep the 1000 vote cushion from Door.

Like I said, Frostman won it 55-45

For the record

[Tintrlvr]

Oh and in less inspiring news, Republicans held the other seat:

42nd Assembly District Filling Vacant Seat
98% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
    Jon Plumer (R)   5,648   53%
    Ann Groves Lloyd (D)   4,816   45%
    Gene Rubinstein (I)   278   3%

Matches my prediction exactly

That one tightened up a lot at the end. Last I saw Plumer was over 60% with half reporting. Decent result overall even if it could have been better.

[Tintrlvr]

Mississippi Results from last night:

State House District 31
Show or hide race▾
Candidate   Party   Votes   Percentage
★   Otis Anthony   NP   4,920   70%
Barbara Brooks   NP   2,143   30%
Total   7,063
100% Reporting 18 of 18 Precincts

State House District 85
Show or hide race▾
Candidate   Party   Votes   Percentage
★   Jeffery Harness   NP   4,300   59%
JoAnn Collins-Smith   NP   2,929   41%
Total   7,229
100% Reporting 27 of 27 Precincts

Were the winners the de facto Democratic candidates?