Why Is Delaware Blue? (user search)
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  Why Is Delaware Blue? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why Is Delaware Blue?  (Read 1724 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,362


« on: February 23, 2018, 05:44:06 PM »

It’s the northern state with the second-highest black population. I don’t know why it being solidly D would be surprising. Ohio would be solidly D if it were 21% black, too.

This is another example of the typical fallacy of only thinking about the white voters in a state.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,362


« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2018, 07:02:58 PM »

It’s the northern state with the second-highest black population. I don’t know why it being solidly D would be surprising. Ohio would be solidly D if it were 21% black, too.

This is another example of the typical fallacy of only thinking about the white voters in a state.

Actually, Trump would have won Ohio if the electorate was 21% black. The electorate is already 14% black.

Also, Mike Castle is an example of a Republican that won statewide in Delaware many times... until he lost the primary to the witch.

Ohio is only 12% black, and I guarantee you the electorate is closer to 11% black (under-18s are disproportionately black, around 18%, and it's pretty obvious from precinct results that black turnout is slightly lower than white turnout, other than in 2008-2012). Don't care what an exit poll says; they're largely bullsh**t reverse-engineered to match the final results such that the crosstabs are totally valueless.
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