UK local elections, May 2018

[Tintrlvr]

Are some councils expected to report results tonight? If so, any idea which ones might the first to come out (and what time - I'm assuming starting around 11pm or so in the UK?)?

[Tintrlvr]

If you look only at results outside of London, it looks like a strong night for the Tories. If you look only at results in London, it looks like a disaster for the Tories. Inverse for Labour, of course. Will be an interesting post mortem. Lib Dems are doing reasonably well for themselves overall in the circumstances, persistently refusing to roll over and die. And UKIP of course is in a state of complete collapse.

[Tintrlvr]

If you look only at results outside of London, it looks like a strong night for the Tories. If you look only at results in London, it looks like a disaster for the Tories. Inverse for Labour, of course.

I don't see how that's true at all? The results in London are much better for the Tories than even more sensible briefings suggested - o/c they were defending poor results in much of the city from 2014.

The Tories have lost a bunch of ground in London overall but generally gained ground outside of London. Measuring relative to "expectations" is a futile task, but measuring next to prior results is actually helpful.

[Tintrlvr]

If you look only at results outside of London, it looks like a strong night for the Tories. If you look only at results in London, it looks like a disaster for the Tories. Inverse for Labour, of course.

I don't see how that's true at all? The results in London are much better for the Tories than even more sensible briefings suggested - o/c they were defending poor results in much of the city from 2014.

The Tories have lost a bunch of ground in London overall but generally gained ground outside of London. Measuring relative to "expectations" is a futile task, but measuring next to prior results is actually helpful.

Yes, but nobody can deny that Labour have done a remarkably poor job of managing expectations. What looks like a average night or more or less a wash now looks like Lab loss. Wandsworth would have flipped easily under the expectations Labor were setting, but they couldn't capture that council.

Fair, but everyone forgets the expectations game a month later unless you *really* blow it (Theresa May 2017) such that it's more actual results that matter ultimately. (I'm not all that sympathetic to Labour and certainly not to Corbyn in any case.)

[Tintrlvr]

No, Trafford is No Overall Control with Labour the largest party by one seat.

Stockport is also still NOC, although Labour is the largest party now (taking the lead from the Lib Dems).

[Tintrlvr]

When a council is NOC, does the resulting coalition generally form along ideological lines (Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Grn) or have there been left-right coalitions in the past?

Labour/Tory coalitions are very rare, other than that, as a general rule, all things are possible and ideology rarely comes into it.

About Lab/Con coalitions, iirc these elecions were England-only. Still, has a mechanic developed in Scotland where the nationalist-unionist axis is stronger than the left right one?

Are there any scottish councils with Labour-Tory-Lib Dem unionist coalitions like we often get here in the Basque Country? (and probably will start getting in Catalonia soon as well)

I do vaguely recall that there have been Lab/Con anti-SNP coalitions in Scotland in local elections before. Not sure there are any tri-party coalitions in Scotland but it seems possible.

[Tintrlvr]

When a council is NOC, does the resulting coalition generally form along ideological lines (Con/UKIP vs Lab/LD/Grn) or have there been left-right coalitions in the past?

Labour/Tory coalitions are very rare, other than that, as a general rule, all things are possible and ideology rarely comes into it.

About Lab/Con coalitions, iirc these elecions were England-only. Still, has a mechanic developed in Scotland where the nationalist-unionist axis is stronger than the left right one?

Are there any scottish councils with Labour-Tory-Lib Dem unionist coalitions like we often get here in the Basque Country? (and probably will start getting in Catalonia soon as well)

I do vaguely recall that there have been Lab/Con anti-SNP coalitions in Scotland in local elections before. Not sure there are any tri-party coalitions in Scotland but it seems possible.

Not sure but a Tory-Labour-UKIP (lol) administration ran Portsmouth for a time overthrowing governing LDs.

Now that I think about it, pretty sure Portsmouth was a Con/Lab coalition (with the LDs as opposition) up until this election. Not sure if anything changed as a result of the election.