Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Tintrlvr]

Gallup (8/22)

Approve 35% (-)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

He's close to his record right?

Yes, the worst was 34/61 on 8/13. He's also hit 35/59 and 36/60 before, although never 35/60, so this is his second-worst rating ever.

[Tintrlvr]

Looking at the trendline on FiveThirtyEight's Trump Approval Average, he should cross below 30% approval sometime in February, and his approval should be in the low 20s by November 2018. Of course, he could speed up the process by crashing the economy by shutting down the government or triggering a default.

Trump's danger zone for removal from office is probably around 25% or so. I previously thought the floor for his approval was in the 20-25% range, and I now think it's closer to 15-20%.

I think it's reasonably likely (though hardly guaranteed) that there will be at least one poll before year-end with Trump's approval rating below 30%.

[Tintrlvr]

They were old in 2004 as well. The GOP is obviously replacing every voter they're losing with a new one.

In 2004, the main stat for gloating was Bush winning 97 of the 100 fastest-growing counties, and of the other 3, one of them was urban Clark County, Nevada. That kind of story relies on middle-aged parents.

What's the comp on 2016? Have to imagine "fastest-growing" has trended D

That's a really good question. Fast-growing counties were growing faster in 2004 than in 2016, I believe, because more people moved back then.

At a glance, it's still a very Republican group but probably somewhat less so, percentage-wise, than in 2004.

First Clinton County is #15 Osceola County, Florida. I also see #18 Fort Bend County, Texas, #57 Loudoun County, Virginia and #91 Broomfield County, Colorado, but there are probably a couple of others I missed. Edit: Also noticed #21 Gallatin County, Montana and #89 Los Alamos County, New Mexico on a second look-through.

A lot of the bigger ones (especially in Texas, where most of the big, fast-growing counties are concentrated) had huge Clinton swings/trends in 2016 though stayed Republican (such as #3 Hays County, Texas, #11 Forsyth County, Georgia, #14 Williamson County, Texas, #24 Montgomery County, Texas, #28 Denton County, Texas and #68 Collin County, Texas).

https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2016/PEPANNGRC.US06

[Tintrlvr]

Trump, PM May, Abe, and Macron all have approval ratings in the 30s.

Are these all for different reasons, or are there some international factors as well?

All for different reasons. May constantly appears hopelessly out of touch and totally bungled a recent election that should have been a slam dunk, Macron is at war with both the left and the right in France simultaneously and Trump is an incompetent doofus. Abe's popularity is rebounding rapidly, and I would not put him in the same category, though he's mostly just had corruption scandals (of the sort the Japanese quickly forget about).

[Tintrlvr]

So his disapproval for the week should average out to about 60%?

Again, I must say, it's pretty amazing how fast Trump is sinking. It's unprecedented. He is still supposed to be in the period of time where people are mostly giving him some benefit of the doubt, even if there is some modest erosion

Well, the honeymoon period was over for both Obama and Bush (both were in the low 50s) by this time in their presidencies. So Trump is way underperforming still but by somewhat less than he used to be (used to be running about 30 points behind Obama and Bush back at the beginning of his Presidency, now running about 20 points behind them).

[Tintrlvr]

Fox News, Sep 24-26, 1017 RV (change from last month)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (-2) (New low in this poll)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Do you think Donald Trump has the temperament to serve effectively as president? (change from Dec.)

Yes 37 (-7)
No 59 (+7)

How does one approve of Donald Trump's performance as president but simultaneously think he does not have the temperament to serve effectively?

[Tintrlvr]

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http://www.newsweek.com/trump-approval-rating-democrats-poll-679613

Isn't this just a consequence of less voters identifying as Republicans?

I don't think there's been a decrease in Republican identification relative to 2001 (at least pre-9/11; I hope they're only comparing to pre-9/11 GWB data because post-9/11 first-term GWB presidency data is pretty useless for comparisons to other presidents). Republican identification was quite low back then because there were still a lot of Dixiecrats identifying with the Democrats (while voting for Bush).