Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Tintrlvr]

Using the ol' Excelorama, plugging in the shift (Pompeo -> Estes, Giroux -> Thompson) across all House seats would see the Dems picking up 99 seats, winning the house 293 to 142.

Obviously that's not going to happen, but it should maybe entice the blue avatars here to cut it out with the gloating.

Maps please

I'll throw that in the to do list.

FWIW, here are the seats that flip: Alabama 2   Alaska AL   Arizona 2   Arkansas 2   California 1   California 10   California 21   California 25   California 39   California 42   California 45   California 48   California 49   Colorado 3   Colorado 6   Florida 3   Florida 6   Florida 15   Florida 16   Florida 18   Florida 26   Florida 27   Georgia 6   Georgia 7   Georgia 12   Illinois 6   Illinois 12   Illinois 13   Illinois 14   Indiana 2   Indiana 9   Iowa 1   Iowa 3   Iowa 4   Kansas 3   Kentucky 6   Maine 2   Michigan 1   Michigan 3   Michigan 6   Michigan 7   Michigan 8   Michigan 11   Minnesota 2   Minnesota 3   Missouri 2   Montana AL   Nebraska 2   Nevada 2   New Jersey 2   New Jersey 3   New Jersey 7   New Jersey 11   New York 1   New York 19   New York 22   New York 23   New York 24   North Carolina 2   North Carolina 5   North Carolina 6   North Carolina 7   North Carolina 8   North Carolina 9   North Carolina 13   Ohio 1   Oklahoma 5   Pennsylvania 6   Pennsylvania 7   Pennsylvania 8   Pennsylvania 12   Pennsylvania 15   Pennsylvania 16   South Carolina 1   South Carolina 5   South Carolina 7   Texas 6   Texas 7   Texas 10   Texas 14   Texas 21   Texas 22   Texas 23   Texas 24   Texas 25   Texas 27   Texas 31   Utah 4   Virginia 1   Virginia 2   Virginia 5   Virginia 7   Virginia 10   Washington 3   Washington 5   Washington 8   West Virginia 2   Wisconsin 6   Wisconsin 7

Heh.

(Also shows how brutal the Ohio gerrymander is, for what it's worth.)

[Tintrlvr]

(Also shows how brutal the Ohio gerrymander is, for what it's worth.)

...and how terrible Clinton's performance was for what people still think of as a median swing state.

Believe the swing calculations Wiz did are based on 2016 Congressional, not Presidential, results.

[Tintrlvr]

This is your party, Republicans

Y'all keep saying that, yet these kind of candidates (Moore, Trump) keep winning.

Yes, that's...that's the problem.

And a problem that you guys need to fix. Democrats kick out terrible incumbents. (Chaka Fattah, Corrine Brown, Bill Jefferson) Republicans re-elect them - even pre-Trump. (Scott DesJarlais, Michael Grimm, Darrell Issa, Sam Brownback)

So why's Steny Hoyer still a factor then?

Do try again.

I'm sure you have some bizarre and arbitrary reason for hating Steny Hoyer, but the point of comparison seems to be non-existent. This isn't about people you personally dislike.

[Tintrlvr]

Conor Lamb
Democrat
1,700   58.7%
Rick Saccone
Republican
1,177   40.6
Drew Miller
Libertarian
19   0.7

2,896 votes, 2% reporting (10 of 593 precincts)

Whoa. Where did that big dump of lamb voters come from?

Suburban Allegheny. A lot of Scott (a large, D-leaning suburban town in Allegheny) has reported.

[Tintrlvr]

For the AZ-8 Special, polls will close at 10 ET tonight. Results will be available beginning at 11 ET at: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/23/17263138/arizona-special-election-live-results-lesko-tipirneni . Other basic information is in the OP.

Jesus that is so late lol

They will come in fast, though, given that it'll be heavy on the early vote.

[Tintrlvr]

No one is really excited or talking about OH-12 on the ground. It just hasn't captured the imagination like the past special elections over the year. The election is just a month away. I think this is a race Democrats could win -- if they knew it was happening.

The biggest Democratic outperformances thus far this cycle have been in seats everyone was ignoring until the last minute. True, none of them were actual victories, but still.