NJ 9th most dem state this year

[Tintrlvr]

NJ is deceptively diverse, much more so than people typically give it credit for. And it is also a wealthy, highly educated state, especially in the north, that demographically seems like a poor fit for Trump in retrospect.* The more downmarket, whiter south of the state moved towards Trump but was largely canceled out by the wealthier, more diverse areas in the north-central areas of the state. Trump still did well in more downmarket white areas in north Jersey, like SW Bergen County (especially relative to Romney, who did terribly there; e.g., Trump got 56% of the vote in Wallington, which had voted for Obama twice), but those areas aren't very representative of north Jersey as a whole.

*Just how strongly this is the case in the super-wealthy areas of North Jersey: Millburn, New Jersey voted 66% for Hillary Clinton (up from 55% for Obama four years ago), and even Alpine, New Jersey voted for the Democrat for the first time in... maybe forever, definitely a very long time. Same for Berkeley Heights, New Providence, Verona, Watchung, Bridgewater, Randolph, Bernards Township, Chatham Township (which was 62% Romney!)...

[Tintrlvr]

NJ is deceptively diverse, much more so than people typically give it credit for. And it is also a wealthy, highly educated state, especially in the north, that demographically seems like a poor fit for Trump in retrospect.* The more downmarket, whiter south of the state moved towards Trump but was largely canceled out by the wealthier, more diverse areas in the north-central areas of the state. Trump still did well in more downmarket white areas in north Jersey, like SW Bergen County (especially relative to Romney, who did terribly there; e.g., Trump got 56% of the vote in Wallington, which had voted for Obama twice), but those areas aren't very representative of north Jersey as a whole.

*Just how strongly this is the case in the super-wealthy areas of North Jersey: Millburn, New Jersey voted 66% for Hillary Clinton (up from 55% for Obama four years ago), and even Alpine, New Jersey voted for the Democrat for the first time in... maybe forever, definitely a very long time. Same for Berkeley Heights, New Providence, Verona, Watchung, Bridgewater, Randolph, Bernards Township, Chatham Township (which was 62% Romney!)...

Yeah Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Union, and Bergen and even the county where I live in Somerset County is a bad fit for Trump. Somerset County is now 17% Asian which as a stat I was shocked to see on the US Census's "Quickfacts" which updates yearly demographic state and county demographics.

On the second paragraph on your post I wonder if those towns trend back R to where they previously were in 2012 once Trump is not on the ballot anymore after 2020 and in 2024. If the candidate was Rubio than maybe yes.

Verona did vote for Obama in 2012 50-49% over Romney.

I think most of those towns will move back somewhat but not all the way to 2012 once Trump is not on the ballot. Romney was also a uniquely strong candidate for a lot of those areas, many of which were dramatically better for Obama 2008 or even in some cases Kerry 2004 than Obama 2012. Part of it is natural demographic shift, too, since most of the new residents in places like New Providence are relocating from NYC so are more likely to be Democrats even if they are very wealthy. Long term, the trend is towards the Democrats in wealthy NYC suburbs with or without Trump. In the 80s and 90s, Republicans were getting 70+% in the vote in a lot of the places I named.

My mistake on Verona. It's definitely been moving towards the Democrats for years in any case due to spillover of white liberals from Montclair so not a huge shock that it flipped in 2012. It did vote for McCain in 2008 and Bush in 2004.