Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[Tintrlvr]

I was keeping the Vice livestream in the background for a while, but I've decided to ignore Votecastr entirely for the rest of the day as their so-called experts and leaders keep saying stupid things, most recently calling Northampton County, PA "an exurb of Philly" (only the latest of a series of stupid comments, such as "there are only two counties in Colorado with non-white voters"), that make it clear they don't know what they're talking about and are likely making dumb decisions in their modeling as a result.

[Tintrlvr]

It appears the Slate site updated FL total votes now... with Clinton just under 90k votes away from Obama's total in 2012. Trump still 270k away from Romney total.

If this model is correct, the polls were very wrong in FL.

For what it's worth, I've been tracking Hillsborough County's votes by registration all day. Early on, today's votes were 34.2% Democrats, 39.4% Republicans. Currently they're 34.7% Democrats, 37.9% Republicans. Basically, the Republicans have led by about 3,500 votes all day. Add today's votes on top of the early votes and Democrats currently still have a greater than 25,000 vote advantage in Hillsborough County.

Agree with this basically.

The Republicans actually led by a bit more than -4,000 (D minus R) at noon (and had been making steady gains over the course of the morning). Around noon, the Democrats started regaining some ground and had the Republicans down to about -3,550 by 1pm with the lunchtime vote. The Republicans have been slowly inching up since then, now at about -3,650. That all matches with what we should expect: Republicans do well with morning voters and off-hours voters (both being heavy on retirees) and the Democrats do well at peak times around lunch and (especially) in the evening. I expect the Democrats will start gaining ground around 5pm and take the lead before polls close, though hard to say exactly where they will end up. I'd hazard a guess at somewhere between +5,000 and +10,000 for on-the-day voters.

[Tintrlvr]

Well a lot of Republicans vote after 5 or 6 when they come home from work. But also young people vote later in the day. So hard to say what's going on (even assuming this isn't junk).

Is there any data about voters pattern i.e. what time od day R vs D usually vote?

Lief is trolling. It's the other way around. The Democrats do best with late-in-the-day voters, Republicans do best with midday and morning voters. This is because Republicans do better with retirees (who can vote at any time of day and far outnumber students) and because Democrats do best with low-income minority voters, who tend to have fixed and inflexible shifts so usually vote after work. Historically it was also because working Republican voters tended to have more white collar jobs so were more able to get away from work to vote midday, though that may be less true this time around. Obviously there are exceptions in certain areas based on demographics, but this is the overall pattern. The effect is not huge but it is noticeable.

[Tintrlvr]

Well a lot of Republicans vote after 5 or 6 when they come home from work. But also young people vote later in the day. So hard to say what's going on (even assuming this isn't junk).

Is there any data about voters pattern i.e. what time od day R vs D usually vote?

Lief is trolling. It's the other way around. The Democrats do best with late-in-the-day voters, Republicans do best with midday and morning voters. Obviously there are exceptions in certain areas based on demographics, but this is the overall pattern. The effect is not huge but it is noticeable.

Haha, ok. I didn't know. It is so strange that you in USA vote on workday

Agreed. It's particularly egregious in states that close polls as early as 7pm so that some people simply can't get to the polls after work.

[Tintrlvr]

So... I'm confused. Those maps were just the election day vote, without the early vote taken into consideration? That would be bad for Trump.

Who knows. They seem to be really screwing this up for the big debut of their model.

[Tintrlvr]

We're going on 2 hours here with no updates and outdated/confusing maps. This is a bust.

Yup, Votecastr is failing hard. They said they expected to be able to call the election around 5pm on Election Day. Oops. They can't even keep their website updated.