South Africa 2009

[ag]

ANC 65.12
DA 17.61
COPE 8.16
IFP 2.91
ID 1.37

DA leads Western Cape with over 50% of the votes. DA gains elsewhere proving spotty and minimal.

Actually, the fact that DA has gains pretty much accross the board is quite remarkable: note, this time there is another largeish opposition party, COPE, and DA still gains. What is preventing ANC's national result from showing a major poll is the fact that Zuma is Zulu: Inkata collapsed in Kwazulu-Natal. Elsewhere, ANC doing is substantially worse then last time. Also, there is notable consolidation of the opposition - minor parties collapse.

Anyway, the latest nationwide (national vote: provincial votes are separate). In brackets, provisional change from 2004

AND 66.62% (-3.07%)
DA 16.22% (+3.85%)
COPE 7.92% (+7.92%)
IFP 3.24% (- 3.73%; and that's the ANC gain)
UDM 1.18% (-1.10%)
ID 1.17% (-0.53%)
FF+ 0.88% (+0.01%)
ACDP 0.74% (-0.86%)

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So, here is Western Cape current PROVINCIAL tally (the national tally from WC is slightly worse for DA, slightly better for ANC). In brackets change from 2004:

DA 50.32% (+23.21%)
ANC 31.37% (-13.88%)
COPE 8.11% (+8.11%)
ID 6.16% (-1.68%)
ACDP 1.37% (-2.07%)
UDM 0.61%  (-1.14%)
FF+ 0.59% (-0.02%)
NNP not running (-10.87%)

[ag]

Well, fingers crossed that the DA/ID government in Western Cape will show South Africa why voting mindlessly for the ANC is a bad idea.

It's going to be DA/COPE/ID gov't. DA will, probably, get an outright majority in Western Cape, but they want a consolidation in the opposition, so they'd like to share the office. Nationwide, a 1.5 party system seems to be emerging.

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And here is Kwazulu-Natal PROVINCIAL tally (once again, at the provincial level ANC is slightly worse off than at the national; change from 2004 in brackets):

ANC 61.01% (+14.04%)
IFP 23.34% (-13.47%)
DA 9.49% (+1.15%)
MF 2.74% (+0.14%)
COPE 1.08% (+1.08%)
ACDP 0.69% (-1.09%)
UDM 0.27% (-0.47%)

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The interesting thing is the change from 2004:

1. W Cape DA 48.7 (+18.8 ), ANC 31.2 (-15.1), COPE 9.2(+9.2), ID 6.3 (-1.7), ACDP 1.5(-2.3), VF+ 1.2 (nil)

2. N Cape ANC 60.0 (-8.8 ), COPE 16.6 (+16.6), DA 13.0 (+1.9), ID 5.5 (-1.1), VF+ 1.4 (-0.1)

3. E Cape ANC 70.1 (-9.2), COPE 12.9 (+12.9), DA 10.1 (+2.8 ), UDM 4.0 (-4.9)

4. KZN ANC 63.8 (+16.3), IFP 22.0 (-12.9), DA 9.5 (-0.5), COPE 1.2 (+1.2)

5. Free State ANC 75.0 (-7.0), DA 10.4 (+1.5), COPE 9.8 (+9.8 ), VF+ 1.6 (-0.5)

6. NW ANC 74.3 (-7.7), DA 8.9 (nil), COPE 8.3 (+8.3), UCDP 3.4 (-3.1), VF+ 1.5 (+0.4)

7. Gauteng ANC 62.1 (-6.6), DA 24.8 (+4.5), COPE 7.1 (+7.1), VF+ 1.6 (+0.4), IFP 1.0 (-1.6)

8. Mpumalanga ANC 84.8 (-1.5) , DA 8.5 (+1.3) , COPE 2.8 (+2.

9. Limpopo ANC 85.8 (-3.9), COPE 6.9 (+6.9), DA 3.5 (-0.3)

If these results hold, they are, actually, quite good for the major opposition parties, other than the IFP. Outside the Zulu heartland, where ANC nominating a Zulu has changed everything, ANC has stepped back accross the board (of course, assuming these results indeed stand).

[ag]

More votes get in, and it's looking better and better for ANC (in brackets change from 2004):

ANC 66.79% (-2.92%)
DA 16.14% (+3.77%)
COPE 7.71% (+7.71%)
IFP 3.62% (- 3.35%)
UDM 1.05% (-1.23%)
ID 1.02% (-0.68%)
FF+ 0.90% (+0.03%)
ACDP 0.76% (-0.84%)

W Cape national:

DA 49.04
ANC 31.91
COPE 9.06
ID 5.47
ACDP 1.55
FF+ 1.21
UDM 0.67

[ag]

The interesting race here was that for the role of the official opposition (oh, the joys of the parliamentary politics).  By province this role will now belong to:

Western Cape - ANC (previously, DA, which is now the gov't)
Northern Cape - COPE (previously, DA)
Eastern Cape - COPE (previously, UDM)
Free State - COPE or DA (very close to call, before it was DA)
Kwazulu-Natal - IFP (as before)
Gauteng - DA (as before)
North-West - COPE or DA (previously, UCDP)
Mpumalanga - DA (as before)
Limpopo - COPE (previously, DA)

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Parties w/ over 5% vote share in the provincial elections:

W Cape: DA, ANC, COPE, ID (in 2004: ANC, DA, NNP, ID) (in 1999: ANC, NNP, DP) (in 1994: NP, ANC, DP)

N Cape: ANC, COPE, DA, ID (in 2004: ANC, DA, NNP, ID) (in 1999: ANC, NNP, DP) (in 1994: ANC, NP, VV-FF)

E Cape: ANC, COPE, DA (in 2004: ANC, UDM, DA) (in 1999: ANC, UDM, DP) (in 1994: ANC, NP)

Free State: ANC, COPE, DA (in 2004: ANC, DA) (in 1999 ANC, DP, NNP) (in 1994: ANC, NP, VV-FF)

North-West: ANC, COPE, DA, UCDP (in 2004: ANC, UCDP) (in 1999: ANC, UCDP) (in 1994: ANC, NP)

Kwazulu-Natal: ANC, IFP, DA (in 2004: ANC, IFP, DA) (in 1999: IFP, ANC, DP) (in 1994: IFP, ANC, NP)

Gauteng: ANC, DA, COPE (in 2004: ANC, DA) (in 1999: ANC, DP) (in 1999: ANC, DP) (in 1994: ANC, NP, VV-FF, DP)

Mpumalanga: ANC, DA (in 2004: ANC, DA) (in 1999: ANC) (in 1994: ANC, NP, VV-FF)

Limpopo: ANC, COPE (in 2004: ANC) (in 1999: ANC) (in 1994: ANC)

Two obervations:

1. COPE did pretty well in puting itself up accross the country. For the first time an opposition took over 5% in Limpopo!
 
2. I actually like the overtime partisan dynamics.

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Eastern Cape seems to have reported complete results!

National:

ANC 69.58% (-9.73%)
COPE 13.28% (+13.28%)
DA 10.23% (+3.98%)
UDM 3.96% (-4.95%)
ACDP 0.59% (-0.18%)
PAC 0.50% (-0.47%)
ID 0.45% (-0.39%)
APC 0.26%
FF 0.24% (-0.04%)
AZAPO 0.20% (+0.04%)
MDP 0.11%
IFP 0.09% (-0.11%)

everybody else less )

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Full Provincial results in W Cape

DA 51.33% (+23.22%)
ANC 31.13% (-14.12%)
COPE 7.81% (+7.81%)
ID 5.59% (-2.25%)
ACDP 1.39% (-2.05%)
UDM 0.65% (-1.10%)
FF+ 0.54% (-0.07%)
AJA 0.22%
CDA 0.17%
NPSA 0.17%
PAC 0.16% (-0.25%)
CAPE 0.13%
NA 0.12% (-0.02%)
AMP 0.11% (-0.59%)
APC 0.10%

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Full National results in W Cape


DA 49.36% (+23.56%)
ANC 31.72% (-14.45%)
COPE 9.01% (+9.01%)
ID 5.40% (-2.57%)
ACDP 1.57% (-2.20%)
FF+ 1.18% (-0.06%)
UDM 0.68% (-1.17%)
AJA 0.17%
PAC 0.17% (-0.29%)
CDA 0.11%
APC 0.11%

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I did some preliminary computations for seat distributions in the national parliament and in the provincial parliaments. Unless I am mistaken about the formulas, here they are (they could still change: for instance, the distance between COPE and DA in FS is under a hundred votes). In brackets, change from 2004

National:

ANC 265 (-14) - 2 short of the 2/3 majority
DA 66 (+16)
COPE 30 (+30)
IFP 18 (-10)
ID 4 (-3)
UDM 4 (-5)
FF+ 4 (nil)
ACDP 3 (-4)
UCDP 2 (-1)
PAC 1 (-2)
MF 1 (-1)
AZAPO 1 (nil)
APC 1 (+1)
NNP not running (-7)

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Provisional for provincial legislatures:

W Cape

DA 22 - simple majority out of 42
ANC 14
COPE 3
ID 2
ACDP 1

E Cape

ANC 44
COPE 9
DA 6
UDM 3
AIC 1

N Cape

ANC 19
COPE 5
DA 4
ID 2

KwaZulu - Natal

ANC 51
IFP 18
DA 7
MF 2
COPE 1
ACDP 1

North-West

ANC 25
COPE 3
DA 3
UCDP 2

Free State

ANC 22
COPE 4 (barely above DA - just a few dozen votes difference)
DA 3
FF+ 1

Gauteng

ANC 47
DA 16
COPE 6
FF+ 1
IFP 1
ACDP 1
ID 1

Mpumalanga

ANC 27
DA 2
COPE 1

Limpopo

ANC 43
COPE 4
DA 2

ANC, COPE and DA are the only parties present in all parliaments!

[ag]

There seems to have been a last-minute batch of votes from W Cape, and it did change things a bit. ANC is now under 66% (65.90%). The latest seat distribution is:

National:

ANC 264 (-15) - 3 short of the 2/3 majority
DA 67 (+17)
COPE 30 (+30)
IFP 18 (-10)
ID 4 (-3)
UDM 4 (-5)
FF+ 4 (nil)
ACDP 3 (-4)
UCDP 2 (-1)
PAC 1 (-2)
MF 1 (-1)
AZAPO 1 (nil)
APC 1 (+1)
NNP not running (-7)

update: this seems to be the final vote count. The final state seat allocations seem to be unchanged as well.

[ag]

ANC is, obviously, by far the dominant party in SA. However, this election is, actually, showing some signs of trouble for them. If not for Zuma's attraction to the Zulus, they would have had a rather mediocre performance.  They lost vote share in 8 out of 9 provinces, and in 7 out of 9 this loss is fairly large. Even w/ the great advance in KZN, their final result is the second-lowest since apartheid (the only time they got lesser vote share was in 1994).  Net loss of 15 seats (bigger losses, if not for KZN: some of the people on the other provincial lists must be very unpleasantly surprized) and failure to get the 2/3 majority, though, mostly, symbolic, will be noted.

Furthermore, there is a clear consolidation of the opposition. DA got the second-best result of any party post-apartheid, the only exception being the NP performance in 1994. They gained a total of nearly 1 mln votes (from almost 2 mln in 2004 to almost 3 mln now). Other than a minor vote share retreat in Limpopo, the had good advances nearly everywhere (BTW, what the hell: why their leader in Limpopo, of all places, is a blonde?). They are, for the first time, in full control in Western Cape: no opposition party achieved anything like that either in 1999 or in 2004.  They are only the official opposition, though, in Gauteng and Mpumalanga (barely missed taht in the Free State), and they should become "less white" if they are to do better elsewhere.

COPE, "the new kid on the block", did worse than expected, but still far better than any "new" party in recent history. 7.41% of the vote, 30 seats, presence in all provincial parliaments and the "official opposition" status in 5 out of 9 of those - nothing to sneer at. Of course, IFP is sharply down (though not quite yet out) and nearly all minor parliamentary opposition parties (with the notable - and unfortunate - exception of the FF+) saw precipitous vote share drops: but, long-term, at least the latter, should be good for the opposition. If DA and COPE manage to cooperate decently (or even to form a permanent coalition), ANC might, eventually, find its match even in some places outside the "majority minority" Western Cape.

[ag]

ANC results aren't so bad: they're a bit higher than expected.
Sure, there's the problem of 2/3 majority, but the ANC remains strongly in command.
CORE and Dems aren't very high. Dems have made good results in the past, but they haven't last.

Predicting ANC fall is like predicting Russian democratization (remember 1999, 2000, Putin's second term, Medvedev's rise, etc), Japanese LDP out of power or Mugabe's end:
repeated again and again but never occurring !

1. ANC still has, probably, 15-30 years left in it, as the dominant party Still, this election is notable, for the time-being.

2. As for the DA thing, you are wrong. This is BY FAR their best performance ever. There've been 4 elections post-apartheid. Here is the dynamics:

1994 DP gets 1.73% (behind FF)
1999 DP gets 9.56%
2004 DA gets 12.37%
2009 DA gets 16.66%

The only time an opposition party performed better was in 1994, when NP got 20.39%. But the bulk of the old NP - at least, its politicians - has now joined ANC.

[ag]

To put things into perspective, here is party dynamics (1994-1999-2004-2009):

In order of the 1994 performance

ANC 62.65% - 66.35% - 69.69% - 65.89%
NP/NNP 20.39% - 6.87% - 1.65% - dead
IFP 10.54% - 8.58% - 6.97% - 4.54%
FF+ 2.17% - 0.80% - 0.89% - 0.83%
DP/DA 1.73% - 9.56% - 12.37% - 16.66%
PAC 1.25% - negligible ever since
ACDP 0.45% - 1.43%-1.65%-0.80%
UDM - not running - 3.42% - 2.28% - 0.84%
ID - not running - not running - 1.70% - 0.92%
COPE - not running - not running - not running - 7.41%

No other party ever got even 1% of the vote

So, some things are clear. DA and COPE do have great performance by historical standards. DA has its best performance ever, best performance by an opposition party since 1999 and second-best overall. COPE has by far the best performance by a "new" (founded after 1994) party.