Australian Election Results Thread

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ABC seems to have called Bennelong for ALP!

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Sarkozy, possibly Brown... Shinzo Abe...

Abe hasn't been a PM for quite some time now.

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Well, ABC, which has been my primary source, doesn't seem to have updated its live results since 1.01AM

If I am to go by the past form, ABC election-night website doesn't get updated beyond the election night. Look at tha AEC webpage.

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Looks like (at least so far) that only in 3 seats there has been any swing towards the Coalition.  In Cowan (WA) it means a Lib pick-up, in Wentworth (NSW) it's a Lib hold of a marginal and in Franklin (TAS) Libs largest swing (+2.99) merely means a slightly less safe Labor hold. Swan is very marginal, but for now it looks like a tiny swing towards Labor.

So, even in WA all seats but one (or, possibly, two) have swung towards Labor.

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All polls have just reported from Bennelong, and they've counted the pre-polls. The swing to Labor is 5.79%. Only postals and provisionals remain.

Same count stage in Sturt - and Lib lead became more comfortable, if still marginal (Lib candidate got a whooping 64% of the pre-polls). AEC now counts it as Lib hold.

According to AEC only 8 seats remain "close".

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According to AEC only 7 seats remain "close". In 6 of them ALP is ahead. The closest seat remains Swan, where the swing is back into Lib favor (0.01%) - but not yet enough to get the Lib into the lead (ALP incumbent is ahead by 85 votes on TPP).  In all but a couple of these seats the pre-polls have been counted, but not postals and provisionals.

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Swan becomes more and more of a knife-edge. W/ 41 out of 42 polls reporting, and w/ the pre-polls counted Wilkie (ALP) leads by 39 votes. The remaining poll is the Boronia pre-release prison for women.  How do the women prisoners vote?  Of course, postal and provisional ballots remain to be counted as well.

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BTW, the results in Batman, so far, are (on TPP) ALP 76.68%, LIB 23.32% and in Grayndler they are 75.49% to 24.51%

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So, while it is still early, we might start looking at the future pendulum.

Starting from ultra-safe labor (over 20% TPP swing necessary to overturn):

1. Batman VIC 76.7% ALP
2. Grayndler NSW 75.5% ALP
3. Throsby NSW 74.1% ALP
4. Melbourne VIC 73.6% ALP
5. Wills VIC 73.6% ALP
6. Gellibrand VIC 72.0% ALP
7. Scullin VIC 71.2% ALP
8. Chifley NSW 71.0% ALP
9. Watson NSW 71.0% ALP
10. Gorton VIC 71.0% ALP
11. Sydney NSW 70.1% ALP
12. Port Adelaide SA 70.1% ALP

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Very safe labor (over 15% TPP swing necessary):

13. Calwell VIC 69.6% LP
14. Blaxcland NSW 69.2% ALP
15. Fowler NSW 69.0% ALP
16. Cunningham NSW 68.5 ALP
17. Reid NSW 67.% ALP
18. Hunter NSW 66.5% ALP
19. Newcastle NSW 65.9% ALP
20. Lalor VIC 65.8% ALP
21. Dennison TAS 65.7% ALP
22. Maribyrnong VIC 65.5% ALP
23. Fraser ACT 65.4% ALP
24. Werriwa NSW 65.3% ALP
25. Shortland NSW 65.1% ALP

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Safe labor (over 10% swing necessary):

26. Oxley QLD 64.9% ALP
27. Prospect NSW 63.9% ALP
28. Hotham VIC 63.8% ALP
29. Kingsford Smith NSW 63.6% ALP
30. Capricornia QLD 63.4% ALP
31. Charlton NSW 63.3% ALP
32. Lingiari NT 62.8% ALP
33. Holt VIC 62.6% ALP
34. Barton NSW 62.5% ALP
35. Griffith QLD 62.4% ALP
36. Rankin QLD 61.9 ALP
37. Canberra ACT 61.8 ALP
38. Banks NSW 61.2% ALP

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Strong Labor (over 5% swing required):

39. Corio VIC 59.5% ALP
40. Fremantle WA 59.4% ALP
41. Perth WA 59.4% ALP
42. Jagajaga VIC 59.2% ALP
43. Richmond NSW 58.9 ALP
44. Lyons TAS 58.8% ALP
45. Lilley QLD 58.7% ALP
46. Ballarat VIC 58.5 ALP
47. Bruce VIC 58.3% ALP
48. Adelaide SA 58.1% ALP
49. Isaacs VIC 58.0% ALP
50. Makin SA 58.0% ALP (gain)
51. Melbourne Ports VIC 58.0% ALP
52. Chisholm VIC 57.8% ALP
53. Lowe NSW 57.4% ALP
54. Maquarie NSW 57.4% ALP
55. Parramatta NSW 57.2% ALP (notional gain)
56. Lindsay NSW 57.1% ALP (gain)
57. Brisbane QLD 57.1% ALP
58. Wakefield SA 57.0% ALP (gain)
59. Brand WA 56.1% ALP
60. Bendigo VIC 56.0% ALP
61. Hindmarsh SA 55.2% ALP
62. Bonner QLD 55.1% ALP (gain)

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Marginal labor (between 1% and 5% swing necessary):

63. Blair QLD 54.9% ALP (gain)
64. Leichhardt QLD 54.8% ALP (gain)
65. Moreton QLD 54.8% ALP (gain)
66. Franklin TAS 54.6 ALP
67. Kingston SA 54.6% ALP (gain)
68. Eden-Monaro NSW 54.2% ALP (gain)
69. Dobell NSW 54.1% ALP (gain)
70. Longman QLD 53.8% ALP (gain)
71. Dawson QLD 53.5% ALP (gain)
72. Forde QLD 53.0% ALP (gain)
73. Flynn QLD 52.8% ALP (gain)
74. Page NSW 52.6% ALP (gain)
75. Petrie QLD 52.3% ALP (gain)
76. Deakin VIC 52.1% ALP (gain)
______________________________ Necessary for majority
77. Bennelong NSW 51.7% ALP (gain)
78. Corangamite VIC 51.4% ALP (gain)
79. Braddon TAS 51.6% ALP (gain)
80. Hasluck WA 51.4% ALP (gain)
81. Bass TAS 51.1% ALP (gain)

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Labor super-marginals (as currently stands, some might be overturned, less than 1% swing required to overturn):

82. Solomon NT 50.8% ALP (gain?)
83. Robertson NSW 50.6% ALP (gain?)
84. LaTrobe VIC 50.3% ALP (gain?)
85. Herbert QLD 50.3% ALP (gain?)
86. Dickson QLD 50.2% ALP (gain?)
87. McEwen VIC 50.2% ALP (gain?)
88. Bowman QLD 50.2% ALP (gain?)
89. Swan WA 50.0% ALP (hold?)

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Coalition super-marginal (again, as currently stands, less than 1% swing required)

90. Macarthur NSW 50.2% LIB (hold?)
91. Sturt SA 50.6% LIB (hold?)
92. Cowper NSW 50.9% NAT (hold?)

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Coalition marginals (1% to 5% required to overturn):

93. Striling WA 51.1% LIB
94. Paterson NSW 51.2% LIB
95. Hinckler QLD 51.2% NAT
96. Cowan WA 51.4% LIB (gain)
97. Hughest NSW 51.8% LIB
98. Kalgoorlie WA 52.2% LIB
99. Fairfax QLD 52.4% LIB
100. Fisher QLD 52.6% LIB
101. Boothby SA 52.8% LIB
102. Gilmore NSW 53.3% LIB
103. Hume NSW 53.4% LIB
104. Dunkley VIC 53.5% LIB
105. Wentworth NSW 53.6% LIB
106. Ryan QLD 53.7% LIB
107. Grey SA 54.0% LIB
108. Greenway NSW 54.6% LIB
109. McMillan VIC 54.6% LIB
110. Aston VIC 54.7% LIB

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Strong Coalittion (over 5% requird to overturn):

111. Menzies VIC 55.0% LIB
112. North Sydney NSW 55.2% LIB
113. Casey VIC 55.2% LIB
114. Canning WA 55.5% LIB
115. Gippsland VIC 55.6% NAT
116. Goldstein VIC 55.6% LIB
117. Forrest WA 55.7% LIB
118. Mayo SA 56.5% LIB
119. Higgins VIC 56.9% LIB
120. Cook NSW 57.1%  LIB
121. Wannon VIC 57.5% LIB
122. Flinders VIC 57.8% LIB
123. Groom QLD 58.0% LIB
124. Wide Bay QLD 58.2% NAT
125. Lyne NSW 58.3 NAT
126. McPherson QLD 58.6% LIB
127. Berowra NSW 58.7% LIB
128. Indi VIC 58.8% LIB
129. Tangney WA 58.8% LIB
130. Kooyong VIC 58.9% LIB
131. Moore WA 59.0% LIB
132. Barker SA 59.1% LIB
133. Pearce WA 59.1% LIB
134. Warringah NSW 59.5% LIB

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Safe Coalition (over 10% swing required):

135. Fadden QLD 60.1% LIB
136. Calare NSW 61.3% NAT
137. Farrer NSW 61.3% LIB
138. Mitchell NSW 61.4% LIB
139. Parkes NSW 62.3% NAT
140. Mackelar NSW 62.6% LIB
141. Maranoa QLD 63.0% NAT
142. Bradfield NSW 63.6% LIB
143. Curtin WA 64.3% LIB
144. Moncrieff QLD 64.4% LIB

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Very safe coalition (over 15% swing required)

145. Riverina NSW 65.7% NAT
146. O'Connor WA 66.7% LIB
147. Murray VIC 68.3% LIB

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Ultra-safe Coalition (over 20% swing required):

148. Mallee VIC 71.5% NAT

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Ultra-safe independent

149.  New England NSW 74.6% Ind. (against NAT)

Very safe independent

150. Kennedy QLD 65.5% Ind. (against ALP)

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The last outstanding poll seems to have come from Bowman (of course, potals, etc., still outstanding). The ALP lead is down to 55 votes. The ALP leadin Swan is currently 53 votes. Everywhere else the gap one way or another is, at least, 300 votes. Still, 2 real cliff-hangers out of 150 - that's a lot!

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Seems like postals put McEwen and La Trobe in the LIB column.

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The ALP advantage in Swan is now down to 17 votes!  Both La Trobe and McEwen seem to get safer for the Libs (though still very marginal, of course).

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And Bowman is now back in the Lib territory - by 27 votes!