Turkey General Elections, 2007

[ag]

I don't understand Turkish,  but electoral websites seem to be understandable. If I read it right, with just under a third of precincts (32.38%) reporting we have (in brackets change from the 2002 election):

AKP 50.32% (+16.04%)
CHP 16.36% (-3.03%)
MHP 14.31% (+5.95%)

Nobody else comes even close to 10% (something called BGMZ is the closest w/ 6.18% - 5.18% more thant the last time).

If this holds, this is a landslide!

[ag]

And you can follow the returns at http://secim2007.ntvmsnbc.com/default.aspx

PS BGMZ seems to be Kurdish (by the look of where they are winning)

[ag]

With 38.97% reporting it changes a bit:

AKP 49.75% (+15.47%)
CHP 16.97% (-2.42%)
MHP 14.52% (+6.16%)
BGMZ 5.9% (+4.9%)
DP 5.78 (-3.76%)

[ag]

Provincewise it is equally landslidish. CHP and BGMZ are winning in 5 provinces each and MHP leads in 2. Everywhere else (and that is a lot of provinces) AKP is in the lead.

[ag]

A few more precints reporting (44.4%) and the results become marginally less striking - but only marginally. DP has just become 4th (still hopeless):

AKP 49.17% (+14.89%)
CHP 17.73% (-1.66%)
MHP 14.59% (+6.23%)
DP 5.75 (-3.79%)
BGMZ 5.6% (+4.6%)

[ag]

Some regional results (I will report for all parties locally getting 5% or more). Istanbul (European side) seems late reporting (only 14.99% of precincts).  AKP is a bit weak here, though, unlike in most of the rest of the European part of the country it is comfortably leading here (in and around Edirne is the last redoubt of CHP). So far, the local results are:

AKP 44.41% (+7.71%)
CHP 27.31% (+3.25%)
MHP 10.83% (+5.79%)
BGMZ 5.11% (+5.05%)

[ag]

So, past the halfway mark. Further slow erosion of AKP lead - but it is still big. w/ 51.98% reporting

AKP 48.53% (+14.25%)
CHP 18.48% (-0.91%)
MHP 14.71% (+6.35%)
DP 5.73 (-3.81%)
BGMZ 5.26% (+4.26%)

BTW, on closer reading (if you can call it reading - I don't know Turkish), seems like BGMZ stands for "independent".

[ag]

Looks like this might be the result.  But CHP wouldn't, on its own, have a blocking minority. That would, of course, mean dealing with the independents.

[ag]

Another regional.  Ankara (55.96% reporting)

AKP 50.74% (+12.63%)
CHP 24.63% (-3.41%)
MHP 15.5% (+6.91%)

[ag]

Approaching the 2/3 mark. With 65.34% reporting

AKP 47.84% (+13.56%)
CHP 19.51% (+0.12%)
MHP 14.71% (+6.35%)
DP 5.65 (-3.89%)
BGMZ 4.98% (+3.98%)

[ag]

Another regional. Diyarbakir (70.53% reporting):

BGMZ 47.56% (+46.21%)
AKP 41.78% (+25.82%)

Nobody else gets even 5%

For once, it seems, most Kurdish votes will not be wasted

[ag]

AKP is up accross the board, in all provinces (unless I missed one or two). There is only one province where it is below 20% (Tunceli, where with 14.34% it is in the third spot - the only province  where it is not, at least, second; even there, though, its vote share has more than dobled, having been just 6.67% the last time). Otherwise, the only area where it is truly weak this time is the European frontier around Edirne - still, its vote share there improved sharply.  Overall, in all but 13 provinces AKP is in the lead, independents lead in 6, CHP in 5 and MHP in just 2.

[ag]

So, it does look like AKP looses a few seats, despite stellar performance. Even w/ independents they won't have 2/3, but the opposition is also divided this time. The key quetions are: how many of the independents are really Kurdish party representatives (I believe, if there are 20 they are entitled to form the fourth faction). And then, the referendum.

BTW, it looks like AKP will have at least 1 representative from every electoral district other than Tunceli (there both representatives will be independents).  A trully broad-based performance.

PS of the independents it looks like 22 come from the areas where they COULD be Kurdish. Whether all of them ARE, and/or whether there are some of them who hate the rest and/or whether some of the independents elected elsewhere come from diaspora Kurds will determine whether Kurds get a faction of their own.

[ag]

There is only one province where it is below 20% (Tunceli, where with 14.34% it is in the third spot - the only province  where it is not, at least, second; even there, though, its vote share has more than dobled, having been just 6.67% the last time).

Which is the only province in all of Turkey with an Alevi majority who wouldn't be too happy with a conservative Sunni as Prime Minister.
[/quote]

BTW, the neighboring province of Bingol has given AKP it's highest vote share in the country (71.01%).  Some tender neighborly interprovincial relations, I surmise .

[ag]

Nearly final results (99.84% reporting, from Hurriyet)

AKP 46.57% (+12.29%) 343 seats
CHP 20.82% (+1.43%) 111 seats
MHP 14.25% (+5.89%) 69 seats
DP 5.38 (-4.16%) no seats
BGMZ 5.19% (+4.19%) 27 seats

[ag]

BTW, looks like 84.73% of voters in Diyarbakir voted for lists and/or candidates that will be represented in the Parliament. When was the last that happened?

AKP  41,22% 6 seats
IND1 12.6% 1 seat
IND2  11.79% 1 seat
IND3 9.67% 1 seat
IND4 9,45% 1 seat

None of the other independents gets even 1.5%. Impressive vote management!

[ag]

The last few seats seem to be extremely volatile. With just a few more precincts reporting, a couple seem to be changin hands. Now, with 99.9% it is:

AKP 46.45% (+12.17%) 341 seats
CHP 20.79% (+1.4%) 112 seats
MHP 14.42% (+6.06%) 70 seats
DP 5.37 (-4.17%) no seats
BGMZ 5.2% (+4.2%) 27 seats

[ag]

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not true. You miss independent gentlemen Seydaoglu (1.14%), Bilgin (0.64%) and 3 more hopelessnessfulls. The "diverse independents" combined get more than anyone of these, though.

[ag]

BTW, looks like 84.73% of voters in Diyarbakir voted for lists and/or candidates that will be represented in the Parliament. When was the last that happened?

AKP  41,22% 6 seats
IND1 12.6% 1 seat
IND2  11.79% 1 seat
IND3 9.67% 1 seat
IND4 9,45% 1 seat

None of the other independents gets even 1.5%. Impressive vote management!

There is such a thing as too impressive vote management:

Agri
1.  AKP   
  % 63,29   103.318  5 seats
2.  B: M.KUTLAY   
  % 12,46   20.341  0 seats
3.  B: H.YILMAZ   
  % 10,42   17.017  0 seats

324 votes more for Kutlay and less for Yilmaz would have been enough to take a seat.

Well, when you try a quirk for the first time, you are bound to be using the simplest strategy, and that they did to perfection.  Next time they should fine tune it a bit. Still, I am mightily impressed. How did they do it? Random how-to-vote cards?

[ag]

The second Izmir district came in. The last seat there very close, and CHP did keep its advantage: 6 CHP, 4 AKP and 2 MHP.

[ag]

Well, in Adana the difference between CHP and MHP is only 600 votes - and that determines a seat. 8 precincts are unlikely to change that, but, who knows?

[ag]

AKP 31.4% 361 seats
CHP 22.3% 179 seats
[i 10 seats]
(...)
2002 results with no threshold (but otherwise same election law)
AKP 263, CHP 117, DEHAP 48 (profiting from its concentration in the SE), DYP 45, MHP 33, GP 27, ANAP 8, SP 4, BBP 1, i 4.

this time around, little change:
AKP -6
CHP -5
MHP -2
DP 8 seats, GP 4 seats, SP 1 seat

Neat illustration to the following: once a democratic  system gets established, both political  parties and voters have a chance to adjust to the electoral law. And, if political camps are broadly defined and polarized, similar (within the current political situation) parties cannot co-exist: the weaker version gets obliterated through strategic voting.  Though, frankly, I never though one could get such decent PR result in the Turkish system.

[ag]

All but the final 8 precincts in Adana in. Though, strangely, it seems some further adjustment in Adana (and elsewhere) has happened (and is happening as we speak), making it no longer so tight. W/ 99.99% reporting the results are:

AKP 46.56% 341 seats  (-20)
CHP 20.81% 112 seats (-67)
MHP 14.25% 70 seats (+70)
DP 5.40% no seats (nil)
Independents 5.18% 27 seats (+17)

[ag]

Final? preliminary results (100% reporting):

AKP 46.54% 341 seats  (-20)
CHP 20.79% 112 seats (-67)
MHP 14.25% 70 seats (+70)
DP 5.40% no seats (nil)
Independents 5.19% 27 seats (+17)

[ag]

BTW, minimal disagreements about websites about the seat distribution persist. Seems like the final seat is in dispute between CHP (111 or 112) and Independent (27 or 28). Anyone know which district is too close to  call (or even clear computation based on given results)?