New South Wales 2007

[ag]

Election is this Saturday. Given the results last time, this is mostly about the Coalition clawing back enough so that it can actually try for power in four years. Lab majority might be reduced, but doesn't seem likely to be overturned. Even less likely (with a number of strong independents) is the Coalition majority. Still, could be fun.

[ag]

Today's Herald/ACNielsen poll (taken earlier in the week, huge sample of almost 1900 voters):

Two-party preferred:

Lab 56%
Coalition 44%

(same as before the last election; note though, in NSW one can exhaust one's vote, so an effective abstention by minor party voters is possible; furthermore, there are a lot of independents who actually win)

Primary vote:

Lab 41% (-2 compared to 2003)
Coalition 36% (+2)

Preferred PM:

Iemma (Lab) 56%
Debnam (Lib) 27%
Don't know 17%

Iemma (Lab): approved 52%, diapproved 33%
Debnam (Lib): approved 30%, disapproved 51%

Expect Lab to win: 76%
Expect Coalition to win 12%

Though: 52% believe Lab does not deserve to win
But: 57% believe Coalition does not deserve to win

To sum up: looking good for Mr. "I am a" and not looking good for the opposition.