Illegal immigrants.

[ag]

It all will depend how this happens. If it happens as a "bipartisan" measure (ie, GWB actually pushes it through his own party, and is associated w/ the program), then Dems would only have a slight advantage in getting their votes, at most. If this is a single-party thing (ie, Dems + a few renegade Reps, Bush sidelined), then count it as a 90% Dem vote for  the next 20 years. If the unions manage to make the Dems resist it, so this is done by the Reps, it might even be a somewhat Rep constituency in the future. So, who knows.

[ag]

Negligible difference at first because most of them won't start voting right away. Dems get some for economics, GOP gets some if Bush gets credit and for social issues. But if Bush gets credit, he loses some conservative whites too. Especially in these Western states. But negligible really. Might make a difference in NM, Nev, Az, a few congressional districts in Tx.

Though you are right that overall impact would be mixed, congressional results, actually, could become interesting for some personalities. While I am not certain of the exact limits of Rep. King's district on LI in NY, he could be instantly deep-fried, if certain LI areas are in. I guess, this could be the case in some other places as well.