One good thing about IN in 2004 was that rapidly growing Hamilton County (200,000 people) swung/trended towards Kerry. This is a great sign.
This is not called a "swing", this is just a minor statistical variation. I 2000 it was 74%:23% Bush, in 2004 it was 74%:25% Bush. Even if you factor in all the trends you wish, this is negligible change. The fact that it is growing makes things worse for the Dems: in 2000 Bush lead was 38 thousand votes, in 2004 it was 51 thousand. Getting 13 thousand votes (net) more out of the single county - one can live with such "trends". At this rate, even if it continues, it will be decades before this growth will stop actually hurting Dems.
