Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017

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I don't think it's a good idea. Cameron should not leave the ship now. He should be the one deciding to leave the EU, and only after he can let someone else lead the negotiations.
What happens if the new government is not in favor of Brexit? It would be a mess...

Cameron cannot stay. He bet on winning the referendum, and he lost. His ability to govern is gone. In any case, he recognizes this and he has announced his resignation.  Frankly, I am upset that it is delayed till October - he should have been gone by sunset tonight.

The question is, if Tories can find a substitute or not. If they can, they might be able to continue governing. Frankly, I would find that to be disgusting, but, at least, it is conceptually possible. Still, I think elections should be held ASAP.

If a pro-EU government is elected, it will be very unpleasant for it to negotiate Brexit. But it must.

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The question is, who will be the leaders. Cameron is gone, Corbyn is facing a major rebellion, which he isn ot looking very likely to survive. Hopefully, replacements will emerge fast.

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

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The question is, who will be the leaders. Cameron is gone, Corbyn is facing a major rebellion, which he isn ot looking very likely to survive. Hopefully, replacements will emerge fast.

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

Johnson or Gove/McDonnell will be the leaders, I'm nearly certain

I would think Theresa May should not be discarded.

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That's a bold prediction.. This is the UK, not Canada. Parties don't regularly have 15% swings.

And UK does not regularly exit EU.

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What happens to UKIP now? Do they surge Asa result of getting their way in the referendum? Or does their support evaporate because people have had the catharsis of getting a Leave victory in the referendum and if the new Tory leader is a pro-Leave guy like Johnson...doesn't that leave UKIP with no raison d'etre?

UKIP's raison d'être has always really been xenophobia, nothing else, and there's still plenty of room for that.

Well put.

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So, I am looking at the LibDem-held constituencies. Seems like they have not done too badly defending Europe. Of course, the boundaries do not coincide, but it still seems likely that Remain either won, or came very close to winning in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Southport, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds Northeast,  Ceredigion - and of course in the Orkney/Shetland. Surprisingly, the one in doubt is Carshalton and Wallington (outer London), though still close. Only North Norfolk seems a fairly clear Leave vote. So, at the very least, the pro-Europe stance is not going to endanger the existing (tiny) parliamentary group.

And the upside is huge. Big chunks of London. Oxford/Cambridge/Liverpoool - you name it. This could be the ticket to, at least, a partial recovery.

When I talk of resurgence I do not mean LibDems forming a government or anything like that. But I do think that smthg like reliable 30-50 seats should be a possibility. In England/Wales, of course (there will be no Scotland).

[ag]

So, I am looking at the LibDem-held constituencies. Seems like they have not done too badly defending Europe. Of course, the boundaries do not coincide, but it still seems likely that Remain either won, or came very close to winning in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Southport, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds Northeast,  Ceredigion - and of course in the Orkney/Shetland. Surprisingly, the one in doubt is Carshalton and Wallington (outer London), though still close. Only North Norfolk seems a fairly clear Leave vote. So, at the very least, the pro-Europe stance is not going to endanger the existing (tiny) parliamentary group.

And the upside is huge. Big chunks of London. Oxford/Cambridge/Liverpoool - you name it. This could be the ticket to, at least, a partial recovery.

When I talk of resurgence I do not mean LibDems forming a government or anything like that. But I do think that smthg like reliable 30-50 seats should be a possibility. In England/Wales, of course (there will be no Scotland).

That is pie in the sky I am afraid, to get 50 seats the Lib Dems would need huge swings, the 50th most easy seat for the Lib Dems to take is Watford where the Lib Dems are 25.4% behind the first place Tories!(and that is including Scottish seats, without them the swings needed to get to 50 seats would be even larger). These 50 seats also contain seats like Redcar where the Lib Dems will probably never win ever again. Remember also boundary changes are coming which will likely be very bad for the Lib Dems.

I know Lib Dems are well known for their extreme optimism. But if they decide to be realistic they should focus on holding what they have and heavily target a handful of seats where they were close to winning last time e.g Cambridge, Eastbourne (I would say Lewes but boundary changes will probably make it unwinnable). They should aim to double their representation in parliament and become stong competetors in a handful of other seats for the next election, any more than this is unrealistic.

They may well eventually get back to 30-50 seats but trust me it will take more than one election.

Ok, it might take a couple of elections. Then, again, until Scotland secedes, we may be observing Westminster elections with a somewhat increased frequency

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Paging ag...

Of course. This is a no-brainer. One does not have to be a prophet to figure this out

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How many classic Lib Dem seats and targets voted Remain anyway?

St. Albans (mentioned elsewhere), Bath, Cheltenham, Lewes, Oxford West, Winchester, Cambridge, Harrogate, Richmond, Twickenham, Kingston, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Cheadle?

Many more. Of course, we do not have constituency data, but we can conjecture on the basis of what we have. Actually, of the currently-held seats, of which 7 are in England/Wales, it would seem that in, at least 5 Remain either won or was very close (Westmorland and Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds NW, Southport and Ceredigion - and, of course, Orkney and Shetland as well, but that is abroad now). Carshallton and Wallington may have gone to Leave, but with a margin similar to the national one. North Norfolk, it seems, is the only clearly Leave seat they currently hold - though Norwich itself voted to Remain.